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Huntsman Corp (HUN) CEO Peter Huntsman on Q1 2022 Results – Earnings Call Transcript

Company Participants

Ivan Marcuse – VP, IR

Peter Huntsman – Chairman, President & CEO

Philip Lister – EVP & CFO

Peter Huntsman

Ivan, thank you very much. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Let’s turn to Slide #5. Adjusted EBITDA for our Polyurethanes division in the first quarter was $224 million compared to $207 million over a year ago, an 8% increase. Revenues grew 30%, primarily due to the price increases that we implemented to offset significant inflationary feedstocks and logistics costs. Our volumes improved 4% year-on-year.

Compared to the first quarter of 2021, volumes growth in the Americas region was 7%, followed by Asia at 4% and Europe at 2%. We expect the Americas to remain our strongest region, driven by construction-related markets as well as overall economic strength.

In Europe, we’re closely monitoring the impact of the war in Ukraine and on the broader economy. While visibility in this regard is difficult, to date, we still see stable demand driven by construction and adhesives in coatings markets. In Asia, specifically China, we expect to be negatively impacted in the near term from the government-mandated lockdowns as the country attempts to control COVID.

Despite continued logistics and supply issues, our Huntsman Building Solutions platform recorded its first quarter revenues of approximately $160 million, nearly 50% above the prior year, primarily due to a strong pricing actions. Consumer sustainability trends, combined with high global energy prices remain clear tailwinds for HBS and strategically, we will continue to up value our polymeric MDI in the spray foam insulation systems.

Our polyurethanes to automotive platform continue to be impacted by the global chip shortage and supply chain issues. However, for the first time in several quarters, we delivered year-over-year growth. This growth was due to modestly improving trends, favorable year-over-year comparisons and continued product substitutions.

Revenues increased 18% with volume increases at 4% year-over-year. We will continue to invest in our automotive platform and bring innovative solutions to our customers.

Our third global platform is our elastomers business, which includes both industrial and consumer segments. We continue to implement price increases to offset inflation and overall revenue climbed 28% versus the first quarter of 2021. The industrial markets remain the strongest sources of value and demand for this business with good growth in the Americas. We’ve chosen to deselect some footwear-related revenues in Asia where we do not believe value is being achieved in a highly inflationary environment.

Our value over volume approach remains core to our strategy for polyurethanes and this intent will drive our decisions on how and where we invest and also where we choose to supply both geographically and by end market. The new MDI splitter in Geismar, Louisiana, which is one of our strategic investments that will allow further upgrade to our Americas portfolio will be completed in June and will begin to contribute to result in the second half of this year.

As we disclosed previously, once fully up and running, we expect this project to add an incremental $45 million of annual EBITDA to the division results by 2024.

As we told you this last year at our Investor Day, equity earnings from our PO/MTBE joint venture with Sinopec in China declined in the first quarter compared to a year ago due to lower propylene oxide margins. The joint venture contributed approximately $12 million in equity earnings for the quarter, below the $35 million reported a year ago. We still expect equity earnings to be approximately $50 million lower in 2022 versus 2021. Raw material inflation remains a challenge though through our pricing efforts, we were able to offset more than $250 million in direct costs when compared to the first quarter of 2021.

About half of this inflation in costs were in Europe where we implemented surcharges and price increases in order to overcome these headwinds. We expect costs to increase in the second quarter over the first quarter but believe we will be able to offset these costs through our pricing initiatives.

In addition to our focus on upgrading our margins by driving molecules into higher value-added margins and products, we are focused on optimizing our cost structure in this division to further improve margins. We delivered in excess of $40 million from our first phase of cost optimization and synergies in polyurethanes, and we are in the process of concluding our plans for the next phase. We will provide details in our second quarter earnings call and expect to deliver a $60 million run rate by the end of 2023 as targeted at our Investor Day.

Looking into the second quarter, we’re watching closely at all of the challenges that the global economy is facing such as military conflict, COVID lockdowns in China, cost inflation and continued supply chain disruptions. Despite these challenges, while visibility is difficult, particularly in China and Europe, near-term trends in the second quarter remain relatively stable with the first quarter. As a result, we expect polyurethane second quarter adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $210 million to $230 million.

Let’s turn to Slide #6. Performance Products reported adjusted EBITDA of $146 million for the first quarter with a 57% increase in revenues and adjusted EBITDA margins rising to 30%. This margin is above our target range of 20% to 25%, with both amines and maleic, delivering strong performance. Over time, we do expect some moderation in certain amine products in Asia primarily into the renewable energy wind market. We are confident that the supply and the demand dynamics in performance products remain favorable in the medium to long term.

Last year, we announced targeted capital investments in polyurethane catalysts and differentiated chemicals, serving the electronic vehicle, semiconductor and insulation markets. These projects continue to move forward and will remain on schedule to be completed on time. We expect all of these projects to contribute to results in 2023 and deliver more than $35 million of EBITDA benefits in 2024.

We’ve said multiple times, we would be highly interested in doing bolt-on acquisitions in performance products, but these opportunities tend to be few and far between. As a result, in the near term, we will stay disciplined and remain focused on organic investments in order to expand this business.

The second quarter for Performance Products tends to be similar to the first quarter. However, we do expect to see some impact in volumes in China as a result of the COVID lockdowns in that country. We currently expect Performance Products to report a second quarter adjusted EBITDA of $130 million to $140 million.

Let’s turn to Slide #7. Advanced Materials reported adjusted EBITDA of $67 million in the quarter, significantly above last year’s first quarter and the strongest quarter in the division’s history. We achieved 20% adjusted EBITDA margins with an extremely disciplined approach to value over volume and all despite aerospace results remaining well below prepandemic levels.

On a per unit variable contribution margin basis, Advanced Materials delivered a 50% improvement compared to the first quarter of last year and crucially, a further 15% improvement since quarter 4 despite further raw material escalations. We are deselecting lower-margin business while increasing our exposure to higher value sales where possible.

In addition, the recent acquisition of Gabriel and CVC are contributing strongly with a combined annualized run rate of $80 million adjusted EBITDA in quarter 1 and above our average adjusted EBITDA margins as we execute on pricing and synergies.

Revenues increased 21% compared to quarter 1 of 2021 and 6% versus quarter 4. Prices increased 34% compared to quarter 1 2021, while volumes were down 17% in the quarter versus the prior year and 5% sequentially.

The majority of the reduction volume was a conscious decision to exit commodity BLR manufacturing in the U.S., in line with our stated strategy. Raw material availability shortages, soft demand in Latin America and implementation of our value over volume strategy somewhat curtailed volumes across our business, particularly in automotive, which declined 15% compared to the prior year, though we’re relatively flat versus the fourth quarter. We did see growth in general industrial markets.

Our aerospace business saw a significant uplift over last year’s depressed quarter 1 and a meaningful sequential increase in profitability. Aerospace is currently trending towards an approximately 40% improvement compared to 2021, which would leave us at approximately $30 million of adjusted EBITDA short of prepandemic levels. The fundamentals of this industry remained strong, and we expect to see continued improvements over the next couple of years as we get back to prepandemic levels.

At this time, we still see stable underlying demand for many of our core specialty businesses in the Americas and Europe and continue to see increased prices to offset inflation. We do expect that the COVID-related restrictions in China will have a modest impact on advanced material results in the second quarter. We expect adjusted EBITDA for this segment in the second quarter to be in the range of $62 million to $68 million.

David Begleiter

Peter, just on MDI manufacturing in Europe, can you talk to the competitiveness of that right now by the industry? And do you think your advantage at all having a plant in the Netherlands as opposed to capacity in Germany?

Peter Huntsman

Yes. And David, very good to hear from you. Yes, I think that we are. I think that the Netherlands, we have an excellent arrangement where we are getting a portion of our electricity and power at that site from wind and contracts that we have in this area. Again, I don’t want to portray that we’re somehow impervious to natural gas supply and price and so forth. But I like our position there. We’re in a chemical cluster that is quite independent and quite stand-alone. And to-date, we haven’t — I just don’t see a threat again as of what we have seen thus far.

We’ve heard and read about some of the actions that might be taken if there’s a natural gas curtailment going into Germany and the impact that might have on some of the larger sites along the Rhine River and so forth. But again, that may impact us, but it would impact us on quite a 2 or 3 levels removed. And I like our position. I like the demand and the customer base that we see.

We’re in the process right now of looking at our entire European footprint and that European footprint, when we look at the European market for us, it includes the Middle East. It includes Africa, it includes India, and we, frankly, we need to look at that entire region. We need to continuously calibrate where we’re going to get the best value for the tonnage that we have available.

Again, I know I sound like a broken record in saying this, but we’re not out trying to move new tonnage. We’re out trying to move improved margins, improved tonnage, improved customer applications, and that means that we are going to continuously look at our customer profile and the regions where we do business.

I mentioned on — in my prepared comments that we pulled out some of our footwear applications and under our TPU business in Southeast Asia. Again, a few years ago, this is a very strategic end of our business. But if we’re not going to be able to get pricing, and we’re not going to be able to pass through raw material prices, we’re not going to be able to increase margins and forth. And get the very best value for that tonnage. We’ll move the tonnage somewhere else, and we’ll continuously look at where we can grow stronger relations and stronger applications.

Kevin McCarthy

Peter, it seems that demand is quite strong across many of your major product lines. So in that context, do you foresee the need to debottleneck or otherwise add capacity moving forward? And related to that, how do you think the capital budget of $300 million this year might trend as your splitter project rolls off?

Peter Huntsman

I’ll let — I’ll ask Phil to comment on the capital projects and projections therein. But I would just note that — I would hope that we are continuously looking at internal projects where we can get an extra 1%, 2%, 3% of excess — of new capacity efficiencies that proverbial learning curve and efficiencies that we have in any manufacturing process.

But aside from some relatively select applications, we’re expanding in some of our amines area, where we are going to be adding the capacity to produce more catalysts and so forth. Most of our capital right now, I would say, 75%, 80% of our capital that’s been spent in the last year and will be spent over the course of the next 6 to 18 months, it’s going to be spent on upgrading our capacity, taking our carbonate today and moving them into EVs, taking our amines and moving them into ultra-peer applications into semiconductor chips.

And so we’re taking our commodity MDI North America and moving it out of some of those more traditional commoditized applications and moving it more into automotive and moving it into further downstream applications.

And I think that, again, that focus on value. And I think that as we look at the overall multiple of our company and we look at the value that the market puts on our EBITDA and the cash that’s generated we need to have higher margins. We need to have greater reliability and greater consistency of those earnings.

And we’ve set that out now for the last 2 years or so, and we intend to do just that. And a lot of those investments that we started a couple of years back, such as the MDI splitter in Geismar, Louisiana are coming to fruition, and we’ll be seeing a full impact of those.

Joshua Spector

I think, Peter, if I heard you right, you talked about polyurethane, Auto’s market demand was up maybe a low to mid-single-digit percent year-over-year that seems to outperform unit sales or unit production in Autos pretty nicely. Just wondering if you could differentiate between how much of that is linked with unit demand, maybe if there’s some inventory effect, which helped the quarter or really how much of that is a substitution effect that you referred to?

Peter Huntsman

I think a lot of that really has to do with substitution of other products. And I think that as we also see a lot of the growth in our higher-end applications, such as Tesla applications. As we’ve said in the past, we’ve won the seating contest, the seating applications, I should say, for Tesla in China. We’re in the process right now of working for applications — working for qualifications and applications for other vehicles as well.

But we throw EVs around quite a bit in these calls. But this is something I think that when we focus on the battery, we focus on the insulation, the sound of the car. We focus on the seating and the lightweighting of the vehicle. I think that we’re uniquely positioned in all of these areas to be able to really add value, and we’re going to continue to do that.

So the higher-end automobile segment continues to do quite well for us. And I hope that we’re able to do better than what you would see if the overall car industry is seeing 0 growth, I hope that we’re seeing something slightly better than that.

Daniel Rizzo

It’s Dan Rizzo on for Laurence. Given how tight the market is, would you co-invest in the greenfield and MDI plant to look back in market share and downstream chemistries longer term?

Peter Huntsman

I mean, look, I’d never say never. I’d have to be up to be a really compelling case to go to a greenfield. When I look at potentially expanding to add a line or increase in existing capacity with a customer or a partner or something like that, perhaps. But I think right now to take $1.5 billion, $2 billion for a greenfield.

When I talk about a greenfield, I’m referring to a brand-new facility, scrape the earth, you’re building a brand-new site, you’re starting with nitrobenzene, going to aniline, going to MDI, going to variants and splitting and so forth. You’re looking at a world-scale basis of 400-plus ton facility, you’re looking at $1.5 billion to $2 billion.

And you’re looking at 7 to 8 years to build that. If I were to take $2 billion and just buy in shares at our market cap today, you’re kind of looking at a 25% improvement in our stock price if nothing happens on multiples or anything else over the course of the next year or 2 versus over the course of the next 8 years, investing in a facility that when it comes on stream, who knows where the markets are going to be and I just kind of look at that from my conversations with shareholders and just kind of looking at the numbers, I’d be very hard-pressed to see us actively pursue — aggressively pursue a greenfield investment in an MDI plant.

Again, please don’t interpret that we’re not dedicated to the business. We’re not looking to invest in opportunities in MDI. I just think — I’d rather see us put $100 million, $200 million over the next couple of years into downstream spray foam and upgrading our MDI and looking at those downstream applications and moving into those applications and producing more MDI.

Michael Harrison

Wanted to ask — get a little bit more color on the Geismar splitter really. What does that start-up process look like between now and June? And can you walk us through the P&L impact on your EBITDA this year? Should we think that there are maybe some costs coming in on the front end and then we ramp gradually toward that $45 million annual EBITDA contribution. And if you could maybe also comment, are customers already in place for the upgraded product coming out of the splitter or is it going to take some time to sell this new material through?

Peter Huntsman

Well, I think that when you look at it, you’ll be seeing — we operate one of these same sort of facilities in China and also in Europe. So this isn’t going to be something that takes us 6 months to start up and we’re trying to learn how to operate this. I would hope that we’d have a very quick startup. What will take time here is actually qualifying new products from a new facility going into our customers.

Now again, we’ve been feeding some of the market — seeding some of the market with products coming out of Asia and Europe. And so as we think of the second half of this year, I would think that it should be around a $10 million to $15 million benefit. As we think of next year, you’re probably looking at $35 million, $40 million-ish. And then by 2020, you’re running it at a full on run rate.

So I mean it will be gradual, just from the qualifying and from the supply sort of a period. But we’re not going out and just starting to hit the market on a sales once we start up with this process. We’ve identified the customers and market segments. We’ve been bringing product over from Europe and from China. And yes, we’re going to hit the ground running.

I would be a little disappointed if we didn’t beat the timing that I just gave you, but I’m also trying to be realistic to the qualifying time the customers and so forth.

Matthew Blair

I was hoping you could talk about this rising mortgage rate environment in the U.S. and how it might impact housing? And then specifically, do you think there would be like a 1-for-1 hit if housing slowed down to your polyurethane segment? Or are there ways that you would be insulated from any sort of housing downturn?

Peter Huntsman

Yes. So when you think about North American residential, think about 10% of our polyurethanes of our overall business that we have. About 10% of our U.S. — of our overall business is U.S. residential and think about 2/3 of that is going to be new build and 1/3 of that is going to be retrofit.

If you see residential slow on new builds, you’re going to see retrofit expand. People decide not to move into a new home, not to buy a new home, not to invest in a new home. They typically will expand in retrofit, their existing home. I want to be absolutely clear, that’s not going to be on a one-for-one basis. I’d not rather see a new home be built for the sake of our business and our products than to see a retrofit being done.

But at the same time, if you’re going to see a new build drop by hypothetically, 10%, you’re not going to see a 10% drop in our business. It ought to be mitigated by the improvement that you’ll see in the retrofit side.

And other areas that I would say that impacts the North American residential business for us is obviously a very large segment of that is the spray foam business and with higher energy prices and so forth, that continues to do very well for us. We’re — I’d say we’re sold out in that business in the sense that we’re producing as much as we can still being limited by the availability of some of the blowing agents and catalysts and so forth that we’re — that we need for that business.

We have a backlog in that business of about 5 weeks meaning that if we don’t get another order coming in, we’re still going to be running that business for the next month plus, just trying to fill the orders that we presently have on book.

So as I look at residential, we continue to see strong demand in our building applications, building materials and so forth. Again, we have not seen that slowdown, but I can’t sit here at the same time and say we don’t have a cautious eye in that area. When you look at the number of new home sales, when you look at the number of mortgage applications and building permits and so forth, it does look like there’s going to be some volatility in that area.

But at the same time, there’s also going to be environmental retrofits, upgrades and we’ll continue to take market from other products and competing applications. So that’s a very important segment for us, and we’re going to continue to invest in it.

Hassan Ahmed

Just wanted to revisit the European MDI side of things. Obviously, Europe is a pretty large part of the MDI industry. Have you guys seen some reductions in operating rates already over there? And if not, if sort of the current geopolitical situation continues, do you expect to see certain curtailments, operating rate reductions and the like. And again, the only reason I asked this is in light of some of the commentary coming out of BASF a couple of weeks ago.

Peter Huntsman

Yes. I have not read or heard what BASF had to say. Our business right now in Europe, it’s obviously not the same size as BASF. But as we look throughout Europe, we continue to be sold out right now. We continue to see strong demand. And again, I don’t want to sit here and burry my head in the sand and say that I don’t have concerns around raw material and around the possible consumer confidence or lack their other inflationary pressures and so forth.

But — and I thought I’d never hear myself say this, but at $30 gas, which is an exorbitantly high price, it’s substantially lower from where it was a month ago, where it was more than double that price. And I think that our Rotterdam cost basis, we’re working very hard to make sure that we can put through prices, we can keep demand. We can focus on new applications. And I think that we’re — we continue to do well in Europe.

Again, it’s the lowest margin end of our MDI business just because of that area of raw material costs. And I wish that wasn’t the case, but I think it’s probably going to be the case for — at least for the near future here.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4504820-huntsman-corp-hun-ceo-peter-huntsman-on-q1-2022-results-earnings-call-transcript?mailingid=27531835&messageid=2800&serial=27531835.754

Covestro AG (CVVTF) CEO Markus Steilemann on Q1 2022 Results – Earnings Call Transcript

orporate Participants

Ronald Köhler – Head of Investor Relations

Markus Steilemann – Chief Executive Officer

Thomas Toepfer – Chief Financial Officer

Thomas Toepfer

Well, thank you very much, Markus, and also a very warm welcome from my side to everybody on the call. I’m on page four of the presentation. And as you can see and as Markus said in the beginning, our quarterly sales rose to 4.7 billion, which is actually the highest quarterly sales number in the Covestro history. That’s an uplift of 42%. And you see the biggest impact came from 23% higher prices that is the 757 million that you see in the bridge. And the increases actually came from both segments. And they were of course enabled by the continuously strong demand that we saw for our products.

With that, I would also say that we were technically sold out and the volume growth that we saw in Q1 was actually only limited by our product availability. The volume increase came particularly from our performance materials business but as Markus said, the business and the segment also benefited from a somewhat lower reference quarter, because in Q1 of last year, we had the winter storm, Uri that affected our sales at the time.

And you can also see in the bridge, the 314 million, which we labeled as portfolio effect this is obviously the effect from the acquisition and first-time consolidation of our RFM business. At this point, I just would like to mention and reiterate that the integration really runs very successfully. And we’re very pleased also with the progress that we’re making in terms of the synergies that we realize.

So with that, let’s turn to page five. The EBITDA bridge, as you can see, we achieved an EBITDA of 806 million this quarter coming from 743 a year ago. And you’ll see the big factor, of course, in the development is the pricing delta in the middle. As you can see, raw material prices increased by 820 million. And I would say it’s a very good achievement that we were able to pass on more than 90% of that to our customers, that is the 757 million so that we came out with an only slightly negative pricing delta of 63 million. So that means the volatile price increases were mostly and largely compensated by sales price increases.

You can see also the volume effect 39 million that is a volume leverage of 32%, relative to the 121 million additional sales that you saw on the previous page. So the 32% is slightly below the usual level of around 50%. And there’s some product mix effects behind that. FX is positive and in the other items of 36 million that includes a 38 million positive FX from lower provisions for variable compensation.

So with that, let’s go to the next page, Page six which shows you the sequential development of our sales and also EBITDA, first of all for the group. As you can see on the upper half of the page, there’s a continuous sales growth during the quarters. And the higher prices in Q1 2022 versus Q4 of last year, as I said led to the highest quarterly sales in the Covestro history. On the lower part of the page, you can see the quarterly EBITDA is on a relatively steady level as I said the pricing delta in Q1 this year versus Q4 is slightly negative. So sales prices almost but not fully could compensate, a big part of the strong raw material price increases, and we also benefited from a volume increase quarter-over-quarter. So sequentially, despite the unprecedented raw material price inflation, as you can see, we still managed to increase our EBITDA margin from 15.3% to 17.2%, than in Q1 of this year.

So let’s turn the page and look at our performance materials segment and look at the same set of numbers of the sequential development. As you can see, again, in the upper half of the page, there is a steady increase of quarterly sales. And the increase in Q1 ’22 versus Q4 stems particularly from the price increases quarter-over-quarter. The lower part of the page shows you also a relatively stable development of our quarterly EBITDA and Q1 EBITDA came in at 620 million. So that was 10 million below Q1 of 2021. And again, considering the strong raw material price increases, that shows you we were able to pass on the majority of that to our customers plus we had a positive x effect and higher volumes year-over-year.

The Q1 2022 EBITDA margin declined year-over-year, I would say that is a technical effect, again, driven by the higher raw material prices and then also higher sales numbers. I would say it’s more interesting to see that sequentially the EBITDA in Q1 of this year is 30 million above Q4 of last year, and slightly lower pricing delta from raw materials was more than compensated by the volume and the FX effect.

Let’s look at the solutions and specialty segment on page number eight. And again, you see sequential sales growth driven by a favorable pricing and volume development on the upper half of the page. Of course, the sales in Q1 of this year, if you compare them with Q1 of last year, contains the effects from the RFM portfolio contribution. If you look at EBITDA lower part of the page, the EBITDA in Q1 of this year, exceeds both the Q4 number and also the Q1 number of 2021. And the strong increase versus Q4 last year comes from higher volumes, positive pricing delta, and also lower provisions for variable compensation. And therefore with that our EBITDA margin increased q-over-q to 10% in Q1 of this year.

Markus Steilemann

Polyurethane based insulation is one of the best options to reach higher energy efficiency and between 30% to 40% more polyurethane is required to achieve these higher energy standards compared to the current standards. On a global scale with regard to climate protection, this should drive the growth rate of MDI by one additional percentage point per year. The reason energy price increases should then be an additional accelerator for implementing higher energy standards for buildings, opening more business opportunities for Covestro.

Wind energy last but not least, is one of the answers for our future supply with electricity and Covestro has already secured renewable power through the different PPAs we have signed. Beyond that we are considering wind energy is more than just a source of electricity, namely also as an attractive field of business. Our unique polyurethane resin for windmill blades, is planned to gain a 10% market share of the epoxy dominated market by 2032, offering an 8% reduction in manufacturing costs. In combination with other Covestro solutions, we can offer a 30% reduction in blade maintenance cost and a two-year extended lifetime.

Jaideep Pandya

Thank you. I have a few questions on raw materials really. Could you talk a little bit about availability on ammonia, on chlorine and then also, in light of what is happening in European refining? Are you concerned about benzene availability, if we have a sharp preference from a mid-distillates? That’s really my first question. And then the second question is, are you making when you look at your global landscape right now? Are you making very high profitability in North America compared to the rest of the world? And therefore, if North America market loosens because of demand, or because of more supply structurally into North America, then we will have some level of convergence? And then just final follow up is, could you just update on your MDI plans and progress in North America? Thanks a lot.

Markus Steilemann

So Jaideep, I take the first and maybe also third question and Thomas maybe the second one. So on the raw materials, ammonia as well as chlorine topic that you addressed and benzene availability, we currently do not foresee shortages of any of those materials. Part of the reason is that we are either, let’s say having long-term agreements with respect to suppliers where we have had no indications that that supply would actually be shortened. Secondly, at some sites, we are producing chlorine ourselves and/or ammonia, ourselves and or with partners. And also here, we have no indication that we would actually have a challenge to get access to ammonia. And from that perspective, switching now to benzene also here. Next to all you hear, we do not foresee any shortage particularly in benzene or even toluene, with regard to the output of the respective refineries. So from that perspective, for sure, it’s a complete containment, for example of Russian gas would come saw an embargo no matter from which side it will be induced, that will have significant impacts on the respective value chains.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4506275-covestro-ag-cvvtf-ceo-markus-steilemann-on-q1-2022-results-earnings-call-transcript?mailingid=27582180&messageid=2800&serial=27582180.376

Covestro AG (CVVTF) CEO Markus Steilemann on Q1 2022 Results – Earnings Call Transcript

orporate Participants

Ronald Köhler – Head of Investor Relations

Markus Steilemann – Chief Executive Officer

Thomas Toepfer – Chief Financial Officer

Thomas Toepfer

Well, thank you very much, Markus, and also a very warm welcome from my side to everybody on the call. I’m on page four of the presentation. And as you can see and as Markus said in the beginning, our quarterly sales rose to 4.7 billion, which is actually the highest quarterly sales number in the Covestro history. That’s an uplift of 42%. And you see the biggest impact came from 23% higher prices that is the 757 million that you see in the bridge. And the increases actually came from both segments. And they were of course enabled by the continuously strong demand that we saw for our products.

With that, I would also say that we were technically sold out and the volume growth that we saw in Q1 was actually only limited by our product availability. The volume increase came particularly from our performance materials business but as Markus said, the business and the segment also benefited from a somewhat lower reference quarter, because in Q1 of last year, we had the winter storm, Uri that affected our sales at the time.

And you can also see in the bridge, the 314 million, which we labeled as portfolio effect this is obviously the effect from the acquisition and first-time consolidation of our RFM business. At this point, I just would like to mention and reiterate that the integration really runs very successfully. And we’re very pleased also with the progress that we’re making in terms of the synergies that we realize.

So with that, let’s turn to page five. The EBITDA bridge, as you can see, we achieved an EBITDA of 806 million this quarter coming from 743 a year ago. And you’ll see the big factor, of course, in the development is the pricing delta in the middle. As you can see, raw material prices increased by 820 million. And I would say it’s a very good achievement that we were able to pass on more than 90% of that to our customers, that is the 757 million so that we came out with an only slightly negative pricing delta of 63 million. So that means the volatile price increases were mostly and largely compensated by sales price increases.

You can see also the volume effect 39 million that is a volume leverage of 32%, relative to the 121 million additional sales that you saw on the previous page. So the 32% is slightly below the usual level of around 50%. And there’s some product mix effects behind that. FX is positive and in the other items of 36 million that includes a 38 million positive FX from lower provisions for variable compensation.

So with that, let’s go to the next page, Page six which shows you the sequential development of our sales and also EBITDA, first of all for the group. As you can see on the upper half of the page, there’s a continuous sales growth during the quarters. And the higher prices in Q1 2022 versus Q4 of last year, as I said led to the highest quarterly sales in the Covestro history. On the lower part of the page, you can see the quarterly EBITDA is on a relatively steady level as I said the pricing delta in Q1 this year versus Q4 is slightly negative. So sales prices almost but not fully could compensate, a big part of the strong raw material price increases, and we also benefited from a volume increase quarter-over-quarter. So sequentially, despite the unprecedented raw material price inflation, as you can see, we still managed to increase our EBITDA margin from 15.3% to 17.2%, than in Q1 of this year.

So let’s turn the page and look at our performance materials segment and look at the same set of numbers of the sequential development. As you can see, again, in the upper half of the page, there is a steady increase of quarterly sales. And the increase in Q1 ’22 versus Q4 stems particularly from the price increases quarter-over-quarter. The lower part of the page shows you also a relatively stable development of our quarterly EBITDA and Q1 EBITDA came in at 620 million. So that was 10 million below Q1 of 2021. And again, considering the strong raw material price increases, that shows you we were able to pass on the majority of that to our customers plus we had a positive x effect and higher volumes year-over-year.

The Q1 2022 EBITDA margin declined year-over-year, I would say that is a technical effect, again, driven by the higher raw material prices and then also higher sales numbers. I would say it’s more interesting to see that sequentially the EBITDA in Q1 of this year is 30 million above Q4 of last year, and slightly lower pricing delta from raw materials was more than compensated by the volume and the FX effect.

Let’s look at the solutions and specialty segment on page number eight. And again, you see sequential sales growth driven by a favorable pricing and volume development on the upper half of the page. Of course, the sales in Q1 of this year, if you compare them with Q1 of last year, contains the effects from the RFM portfolio contribution. If you look at EBITDA lower part of the page, the EBITDA in Q1 of this year, exceeds both the Q4 number and also the Q1 number of 2021. And the strong increase versus Q4 last year comes from higher volumes, positive pricing delta, and also lower provisions for variable compensation. And therefore with that our EBITDA margin increased q-over-q to 10% in Q1 of this year.

Markus Steilemann

Polyurethane based insulation is one of the best options to reach higher energy efficiency and between 30% to 40% more polyurethane is required to achieve these higher energy standards compared to the current standards. On a global scale with regard to climate protection, this should drive the growth rate of MDI by one additional percentage point per year. The reason energy price increases should then be an additional accelerator for implementing higher energy standards for buildings, opening more business opportunities for Covestro.

Wind energy last but not least, is one of the answers for our future supply with electricity and Covestro has already secured renewable power through the different PPAs we have signed. Beyond that we are considering wind energy is more than just a source of electricity, namely also as an attractive field of business. Our unique polyurethane resin for windmill blades, is planned to gain a 10% market share of the epoxy dominated market by 2032, offering an 8% reduction in manufacturing costs. In combination with other Covestro solutions, we can offer a 30% reduction in blade maintenance cost and a two-year extended lifetime.

Jaideep Pandya

Thank you. I have a few questions on raw materials really. Could you talk a little bit about availability on ammonia, on chlorine and then also, in light of what is happening in European refining? Are you concerned about benzene availability, if we have a sharp preference from a mid-distillates? That’s really my first question. And then the second question is, are you making when you look at your global landscape right now? Are you making very high profitability in North America compared to the rest of the world? And therefore, if North America market loosens because of demand, or because of more supply structurally into North America, then we will have some level of convergence? And then just final follow up is, could you just update on your MDI plans and progress in North America? Thanks a lot.

Markus Steilemann

So Jaideep, I take the first and maybe also third question and Thomas maybe the second one. So on the raw materials, ammonia as well as chlorine topic that you addressed and benzene availability, we currently do not foresee shortages of any of those materials. Part of the reason is that we are either, let’s say having long-term agreements with respect to suppliers where we have had no indications that that supply would actually be shortened. Secondly, at some sites, we are producing chlorine ourselves and/or ammonia, ourselves and or with partners. And also here, we have no indication that we would actually have a challenge to get access to ammonia. And from that perspective, switching now to benzene also here. Next to all you hear, we do not foresee any shortage particularly in benzene or even toluene, with regard to the output of the respective refineries. So from that perspective, for sure, it’s a complete containment, for example of Russian gas would come saw an embargo no matter from which side it will be induced, that will have significant impacts on the respective value chains.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4506275-covestro-ag-cvvtf-ceo-markus-steilemann-on-q1-2022-results-earnings-call-transcript?mailingid=27582180&messageid=2800&serial=27582180.376

Olin Corporation’s (OLN) CEO Scott Sutton on Q1 2022 Results – Earnings Call Transcript

Olin Corporation (NYSE:OLN) Q1 2022 Earnings Conference Call April 29, 2022 9:00 AM ET

Company Participants

Steve Keenan – Director-Investor Relations

Scott Sutton – Chief Executive Officer

Damian Gumpel – President, Epoxy and Corporate Strategy

Patrick Schumacher – President, Chlor-Alkali Products and Vinyls

Todd Slater – Chief Financial Officer

Scott Sutton

Yes. Thanks, Steve. Olin’s first quarter results met a number of expectations, but we can deliver more. That said the broad Olin global team delivered remarkable accomplishments and demonstrating that we have control over improving our value delivery in 2022 versus 2021, in the face of major CAPV power asset challenges and now including a multi-month complete Plaquemine site shutdown and an Epoxy market in which Olin absorbed and continues to absorb the demand shortfall. Both CAPV and Winchester delivered the highest quarterly EBITDA in our history. We were also pleased to announce our blue water joint venture with Mitsui & Company to substantially grow our participation in global liquidity and better service global demand. Complementing our leading position, Mitsui will bring to the joint venture both existing business and a tremendous global capability to drive long-term growth.

So beginning with Slide number 4. There are two main themes that I’ll review in these remarks. One thematic is our Olin winning model and the other is our Olin growth vectors. Here is the simple story of Olin. We’re the global leader in all of our businesses and seek to expand our leadership. Our annual levered free cash flow is $1.7 billion and it is very repeatable. We have a unique system value model that breaks the cycle phenomenon, in other words, the Olin winning model. And we have accretive initiatives in every business; we call them Olin growth vectors. So let’s start with the Olin winning model theme on Slide number 5 and really respond to a very popular question that we get all the time. The application of our new winning model prevents deeply cyclic results that Olin historically inflicted upon itself. Here’s the proposed proof. First on the left hand side from the top down, Olin could absorb demand shortfalls like we are doing today in epoxy, by the way, and run our entire global chemical assets portfolio at 50% utilization rates for a whole year and still deliver close to $2 billion of EBITDA in that same year.

So from the bottom up on the right hand side, so we are speaking of from the $636 million of EBITDA in 2020. We add back material changes that we don’t lose in the event of a recession and could still get to at least $1.5 billion of EBITDA. So with demand growth forecasted to be larger than supply growth across all of our businesses, we don’t see the recession scenario materializing but even if we did fall all the way down to $1.5 billion of EBITDA, we could still deliver more than $1 billion of levered free cash flow in that same year. So a recession year yield of 13% at today’s equity price.

Continuing the Olin winning model theme on Slide number 6, the optionality and the high level mechanics of our model are important to understand. So we have tried to summarize a day in the life of operating our model. First, we set our broad market participation to the forecasted weaker side of the ECU. In other words, we don’t chase the stronger side and we limit our participation on the weaker side.

Second, we determine which Olin chlorine derivative change to give preference based on their relative values. Third, we decide how far downstream in each derivative chain we will participate. And finally, as a fourth step, even for the products that we do participate in, it may make sense to purchase liquidity from the global market instead of producing the product.

The operation of the model is clearly more sophisticated than the simple summary. And as you might imagine, the operation is really executed across a deep and rational culture of value. Now let’s move to the Olin growth vectors thematic beginning on Slide number 7. Considering the backstop of our successful model, we can now cross an inflection point and run growth initiatives.

In epoxy, on Slide number 9, Olin is positioning its technology to take advantage of robust future demand driven by megatrends. There are clear and specific global growth factors that will pull on epoxy demand, namely giant wind turbines, lighter automobiles, electrified vehicles and more sustainable construction methods. For each of these vectors, Olin has developed a proprietary epoxy system to solve a technical and enabling feature needed in the end product.

Mike Sison

Hi, guys, a nice quarter and outlook. In terms of Epoxy, I was just curious – I think you’ve mentioned in the prepared remarks that demand is a little bit kind of soft. And just wanted to get a little bit of color on that and how you see sort of Epoxy performing over the next couple of quarters?

Scott Sutton

Yes. Hi, Mike, I mean, Damian, give us just a couple of comments on that. But just to make it even clearer, yes, demand has come down. We’ve absorbed that demand shortfall. And in fact, the first quarter was the lowest volume Epoxy quarter in the history of this business. And I think Damian can give you a view of where demand sort of sits right now.

Damian Gumpel

Sure. Mike, good morning. Yes, we look at three factors meeting demand right now. First is obviously the situation – the unfortunate situation going on in Europe. The second area is the ongoing supply chain issues that are making it difficult to get other materials in then combined with the epoxy to make a finished good. Automotive is a clear example there. And the third example, the third area we see is China with the ongoing deep lockdowns that are underway here in the first quarter. All those factors are meeting demand some. That said, we are seeing that second quarter demand is a little better than the first quarter. We would normally expect that with seasonality. So we are seeing that.

The U.S. continues to have a good, robust epoxy demand and we continue to – but all that said, we continue to set our value point for LER. We don’t come off of that value point. We moderate our production based on the demand that’s available to us from our customer base. And the last comment I’ll say is that even with all that, we’re not seeing – the world is able to make more LER and that kind of reinforces our point that right now, Olin is – we continue to absorb the demand shortfall out there.

Kevin McCarthy

Yes, good morning. Scott, I’d appreciate your updated view on pricing prospects in both chlorine and caustic. With the Plaquemine site down for a multi-month period, we’ve seen some of your competitors put forth very aggressive or at least high price increase proposals for the second quarter. Can you speak to supply-demand balances in the industry as they are and what that might mean for the price opportunity over the near term?

Scott Sutton

Well, Patrick will give us a little color on forward value plays by Olin. I would just tell you that it’s been quite tight and all of this makes it even tighter. And even on a long-term outlook, we tried to demonstrate in our last quarterly call that demand growth certainly outstrips supply growth. So that’s just setting it up. And Patrick, do you want to expand a little bit?

Patrick Schumacher

Yes. I would just say that prices in the quarter moved up meaningfully from the fourth quarter for all of our businesses. In the market, there was – as some of you noted in your notes, there is a bit of a lull in Asia in the middle of the first quarter in that caustic market, but those prices are moving again. You guys saw it would just settled in Europe for contract prices for the second quarter. That’s a reflection of tightness in that caustic market globally. So we see pricing momentum continuing really across the board.

Arun Viswanathan

Great. Thanks for taking my question. I guess I just wanted to – you noted some soft demand in Epoxy. So I guess, first, I just wanted to ask about if you can kind of go through your markets a little bit, let us know what you’re seeing? I know – also you said there is some weakness in Asian caustic in Q1. But structurally speaking, I guess, how do you see your different end markets? And maybe if we could just focus on chlorine, caustic and epoxy in Winchester, that would be great. Thanks.

Scott Sutton

Yes. I mean from a high level, I mean, end markets are generally fine, except where we pointed out that epoxy got a bit slow for reasons Damian went through, be it Asia, auto Europe and a little bit of a lull even in wind blade production that does come back. That has actually stabilized and that was the nature of Damian’s comment where he said that, look, second quarter looks just a bit better than first quarter in terms of demand. I mean, demand is fine everywhere else. Of course, supply is quite tight also. If you take it to our Winchester business, which we haven’t talked about yet on this call, demand looks long-term good. In fact, with all the events going on with Russia’s war effectively they were the largest importer of ammunition into the U.S., in fact, about 12% of the market. And I suspect the U.S. is at long for continuing to import that ammunition. So that’s just one more item that enhances the demand profile looking forward for Winchester.

Steve Byrne

Yes. So I was curious about your multiple pathways on Slide 6 and you’re clearly moving downstream into epoxy and vinyls. I was just curious if there might be some other pathways you could consider and one that seems possible would be the isocyanate into polyurethanes. Do you sell phosgene into the isocyanate industry and is that another potential path for you?

Scott Sutton

Yes, I mean, thanks for the question. Look, there’s lots of paths that are possible in the ECU world, right. And we’re already a supplier of either chlorine molecules or chlorine derivative intermediates into many different chains, right. The ones we put on that Slide 6 are the chains that we effectively operate today, right. We were always considering different acquisitions, mergers, whatever the case is. And there’s a number of derivative chains that could make a lot of sense, especially as Olin’s equity value gets lifted as well, it’s challenging to do a big move today considering where we trade at, not impossible, just challenging.

Jeff Zekauskas

Thanks very much. You said that you expected to earn more in your chlor-alkali business in the second quarter than in the first. Why is that given all of the difficulties that you’ve got, are the operational issues in the second quarter less than they were in the first and how big were the operational issues in the first quarter?

Scott Sutton

Hi Jeff. No, the operational issues in the second quarter are more significant than the first quarter. In fact, it’s when all of the negatives sort of merge together but the path that we’re on Jeff to continue enhancing the value of the ECU and derivatives from the ECU has a lot of continuing momentum. That continuing momentum overwhelms those negative issues. I think in the press release, we called out that just the plaque of event itself has a direct negative of $75 million to our earnings in our CAPV business. The other events have negatives as well, but we overcome all of those, based on the momentum that we have in the business to improve the value.

Josh Spector

Yes. Hi, thanks for taking my question. I just had a follow up on your recession scenario analysis. Just curious that, so it looks like you’re taking operating rates down but you’re assuming that you can maintain pricing at least on the chlorine side. I was wondering if you could comment on what your pricing assumption is there on the caustic side as well. And just going back to chlorine, what gives you confident on being able to maintain that pricing? Is there something contractually set that locks that in place for you guys? Or are you just assuming you could deselect where it weakens? Thanks.

Scott Sutton

Yeah. Thanks for the question. I mean, it’s really like a chicken or egg question, right. I mean, this is of course a hypothetical case, just trying to demonstrate the extent that we’re willing to go to preserve our product pricing. I mean, the reason you would take your complete global chemicals assets down to a 50% utilization rate for a whole year is to preserve product pricing, right. So we control our own destiny there and we’re positioned to do that even in the case of a global recession, particularly on – you brought up merchant chlorine, that for many years sort of priced in the low $100 a ton, and we’re directionally moving it toward $1,000 a ton on a pricing ratchet that we won’t have to move back from. Even in a recession when you think about the applications that are left with merchant chlorine, it’s things like water treatment and wastewater treatment and pharmaceuticals and agrichemicals those demands continue.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4505205-olin-corporations-oln-ceo-scott-sutton-on-q1-2022-results-earnings-call-transcript?mailingid=27541940&messageid=2800&serial=27541940.1449

Olin Corporation’s (OLN) CEO Scott Sutton on Q1 2022 Results – Earnings Call Transcript

Olin Corporation (NYSE:OLN) Q1 2022 Earnings Conference Call April 29, 2022 9:00 AM ET

Company Participants

Steve Keenan – Director-Investor Relations

Scott Sutton – Chief Executive Officer

Damian Gumpel – President, Epoxy and Corporate Strategy

Patrick Schumacher – President, Chlor-Alkali Products and Vinyls

Todd Slater – Chief Financial Officer

Scott Sutton

Yes. Thanks, Steve. Olin’s first quarter results met a number of expectations, but we can deliver more. That said the broad Olin global team delivered remarkable accomplishments and demonstrating that we have control over improving our value delivery in 2022 versus 2021, in the face of major CAPV power asset challenges and now including a multi-month complete Plaquemine site shutdown and an Epoxy market in which Olin absorbed and continues to absorb the demand shortfall. Both CAPV and Winchester delivered the highest quarterly EBITDA in our history. We were also pleased to announce our blue water joint venture with Mitsui & Company to substantially grow our participation in global liquidity and better service global demand. Complementing our leading position, Mitsui will bring to the joint venture both existing business and a tremendous global capability to drive long-term growth.

So beginning with Slide number 4. There are two main themes that I’ll review in these remarks. One thematic is our Olin winning model and the other is our Olin growth vectors. Here is the simple story of Olin. We’re the global leader in all of our businesses and seek to expand our leadership. Our annual levered free cash flow is $1.7 billion and it is very repeatable. We have a unique system value model that breaks the cycle phenomenon, in other words, the Olin winning model. And we have accretive initiatives in every business; we call them Olin growth vectors. So let’s start with the Olin winning model theme on Slide number 5 and really respond to a very popular question that we get all the time. The application of our new winning model prevents deeply cyclic results that Olin historically inflicted upon itself. Here’s the proposed proof. First on the left hand side from the top down, Olin could absorb demand shortfalls like we are doing today in epoxy, by the way, and run our entire global chemical assets portfolio at 50% utilization rates for a whole year and still deliver close to $2 billion of EBITDA in that same year.

So from the bottom up on the right hand side, so we are speaking of from the $636 million of EBITDA in 2020. We add back material changes that we don’t lose in the event of a recession and could still get to at least $1.5 billion of EBITDA. So with demand growth forecasted to be larger than supply growth across all of our businesses, we don’t see the recession scenario materializing but even if we did fall all the way down to $1.5 billion of EBITDA, we could still deliver more than $1 billion of levered free cash flow in that same year. So a recession year yield of 13% at today’s equity price.

Continuing the Olin winning model theme on Slide number 6, the optionality and the high level mechanics of our model are important to understand. So we have tried to summarize a day in the life of operating our model. First, we set our broad market participation to the forecasted weaker side of the ECU. In other words, we don’t chase the stronger side and we limit our participation on the weaker side.

Second, we determine which Olin chlorine derivative change to give preference based on their relative values. Third, we decide how far downstream in each derivative chain we will participate. And finally, as a fourth step, even for the products that we do participate in, it may make sense to purchase liquidity from the global market instead of producing the product.

The operation of the model is clearly more sophisticated than the simple summary. And as you might imagine, the operation is really executed across a deep and rational culture of value. Now let’s move to the Olin growth vectors thematic beginning on Slide number 7. Considering the backstop of our successful model, we can now cross an inflection point and run growth initiatives.

In epoxy, on Slide number 9, Olin is positioning its technology to take advantage of robust future demand driven by megatrends. There are clear and specific global growth factors that will pull on epoxy demand, namely giant wind turbines, lighter automobiles, electrified vehicles and more sustainable construction methods. For each of these vectors, Olin has developed a proprietary epoxy system to solve a technical and enabling feature needed in the end product.

Mike Sison

Hi, guys, a nice quarter and outlook. In terms of Epoxy, I was just curious – I think you’ve mentioned in the prepared remarks that demand is a little bit kind of soft. And just wanted to get a little bit of color on that and how you see sort of Epoxy performing over the next couple of quarters?

Scott Sutton

Yes. Hi, Mike, I mean, Damian, give us just a couple of comments on that. But just to make it even clearer, yes, demand has come down. We’ve absorbed that demand shortfall. And in fact, the first quarter was the lowest volume Epoxy quarter in the history of this business. And I think Damian can give you a view of where demand sort of sits right now.

Damian Gumpel

Sure. Mike, good morning. Yes, we look at three factors meeting demand right now. First is obviously the situation – the unfortunate situation going on in Europe. The second area is the ongoing supply chain issues that are making it difficult to get other materials in then combined with the epoxy to make a finished good. Automotive is a clear example there. And the third example, the third area we see is China with the ongoing deep lockdowns that are underway here in the first quarter. All those factors are meeting demand some. That said, we are seeing that second quarter demand is a little better than the first quarter. We would normally expect that with seasonality. So we are seeing that.

The U.S. continues to have a good, robust epoxy demand and we continue to – but all that said, we continue to set our value point for LER. We don’t come off of that value point. We moderate our production based on the demand that’s available to us from our customer base. And the last comment I’ll say is that even with all that, we’re not seeing – the world is able to make more LER and that kind of reinforces our point that right now, Olin is – we continue to absorb the demand shortfall out there.

Kevin McCarthy

Yes, good morning. Scott, I’d appreciate your updated view on pricing prospects in both chlorine and caustic. With the Plaquemine site down for a multi-month period, we’ve seen some of your competitors put forth very aggressive or at least high price increase proposals for the second quarter. Can you speak to supply-demand balances in the industry as they are and what that might mean for the price opportunity over the near term?

Scott Sutton

Well, Patrick will give us a little color on forward value plays by Olin. I would just tell you that it’s been quite tight and all of this makes it even tighter. And even on a long-term outlook, we tried to demonstrate in our last quarterly call that demand growth certainly outstrips supply growth. So that’s just setting it up. And Patrick, do you want to expand a little bit?

Patrick Schumacher

Yes. I would just say that prices in the quarter moved up meaningfully from the fourth quarter for all of our businesses. In the market, there was – as some of you noted in your notes, there is a bit of a lull in Asia in the middle of the first quarter in that caustic market, but those prices are moving again. You guys saw it would just settled in Europe for contract prices for the second quarter. That’s a reflection of tightness in that caustic market globally. So we see pricing momentum continuing really across the board.

Arun Viswanathan

Great. Thanks for taking my question. I guess I just wanted to – you noted some soft demand in Epoxy. So I guess, first, I just wanted to ask about if you can kind of go through your markets a little bit, let us know what you’re seeing? I know – also you said there is some weakness in Asian caustic in Q1. But structurally speaking, I guess, how do you see your different end markets? And maybe if we could just focus on chlorine, caustic and epoxy in Winchester, that would be great. Thanks.

Scott Sutton

Yes. I mean from a high level, I mean, end markets are generally fine, except where we pointed out that epoxy got a bit slow for reasons Damian went through, be it Asia, auto Europe and a little bit of a lull even in wind blade production that does come back. That has actually stabilized and that was the nature of Damian’s comment where he said that, look, second quarter looks just a bit better than first quarter in terms of demand. I mean, demand is fine everywhere else. Of course, supply is quite tight also. If you take it to our Winchester business, which we haven’t talked about yet on this call, demand looks long-term good. In fact, with all the events going on with Russia’s war effectively they were the largest importer of ammunition into the U.S., in fact, about 12% of the market. And I suspect the U.S. is at long for continuing to import that ammunition. So that’s just one more item that enhances the demand profile looking forward for Winchester.

Steve Byrne

Yes. So I was curious about your multiple pathways on Slide 6 and you’re clearly moving downstream into epoxy and vinyls. I was just curious if there might be some other pathways you could consider and one that seems possible would be the isocyanate into polyurethanes. Do you sell phosgene into the isocyanate industry and is that another potential path for you?

Scott Sutton

Yes, I mean, thanks for the question. Look, there’s lots of paths that are possible in the ECU world, right. And we’re already a supplier of either chlorine molecules or chlorine derivative intermediates into many different chains, right. The ones we put on that Slide 6 are the chains that we effectively operate today, right. We were always considering different acquisitions, mergers, whatever the case is. And there’s a number of derivative chains that could make a lot of sense, especially as Olin’s equity value gets lifted as well, it’s challenging to do a big move today considering where we trade at, not impossible, just challenging.

Jeff Zekauskas

Thanks very much. You said that you expected to earn more in your chlor-alkali business in the second quarter than in the first. Why is that given all of the difficulties that you’ve got, are the operational issues in the second quarter less than they were in the first and how big were the operational issues in the first quarter?

Scott Sutton

Hi Jeff. No, the operational issues in the second quarter are more significant than the first quarter. In fact, it’s when all of the negatives sort of merge together but the path that we’re on Jeff to continue enhancing the value of the ECU and derivatives from the ECU has a lot of continuing momentum. That continuing momentum overwhelms those negative issues. I think in the press release, we called out that just the plaque of event itself has a direct negative of $75 million to our earnings in our CAPV business. The other events have negatives as well, but we overcome all of those, based on the momentum that we have in the business to improve the value.

Josh Spector

Yes. Hi, thanks for taking my question. I just had a follow up on your recession scenario analysis. Just curious that, so it looks like you’re taking operating rates down but you’re assuming that you can maintain pricing at least on the chlorine side. I was wondering if you could comment on what your pricing assumption is there on the caustic side as well. And just going back to chlorine, what gives you confident on being able to maintain that pricing? Is there something contractually set that locks that in place for you guys? Or are you just assuming you could deselect where it weakens? Thanks.

Scott Sutton

Yeah. Thanks for the question. I mean, it’s really like a chicken or egg question, right. I mean, this is of course a hypothetical case, just trying to demonstrate the extent that we’re willing to go to preserve our product pricing. I mean, the reason you would take your complete global chemicals assets down to a 50% utilization rate for a whole year is to preserve product pricing, right. So we control our own destiny there and we’re positioned to do that even in the case of a global recession, particularly on – you brought up merchant chlorine, that for many years sort of priced in the low $100 a ton, and we’re directionally moving it toward $1,000 a ton on a pricing ratchet that we won’t have to move back from. Even in a recession when you think about the applications that are left with merchant chlorine, it’s things like water treatment and wastewater treatment and pharmaceuticals and agrichemicals those demands continue.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4505205-olin-corporations-oln-ceo-scott-sutton-on-q1-2022-results-earnings-call-transcript?mailingid=27541940&messageid=2800&serial=27541940.1449