Chinese Polyol Update

PUdaily, Shanghai–Take a look at the market movement in the last two days:

Yesterday, the polyether polyols market saw poor sell-off due to limited number of new orders. This situation has lasted for several days, with some manufacturers selling polyether polyols at a price lower than the market average one. At the same time, a PO plant was shut down temporarily due to problems in steam and a major factory overhauled previously began to increase the operation load.

Yesterday, (unofficial) news came in that the slab polyols of an American brand would enter China in the near future, but the specific shipping date and quantity are still unknown.

Yesterday evening, Shandong Jinling Chemical announced reduction in the price of propylene oxide by RMB 400 yuan/ton.

This morning, some of the PO manufacturers in North China announced that the price of propylene oxide was reduced to around RMB 12,000 yuan/ton. Major suppliers in East China also took action, cutting the price by RMB 300-500 yuan /ton.

Early this morning, the arrival notice said about 16,000 tons of PO would arrive at different ports in China next Monday. This quantity is equivalent to the output produced by all domestic PO manufacturers in 2-3 days.

This morning, two polyether polyols plants successively issued announcements to adjust their prices, with prices of all their polyethers reduced by RMB 200 yuan/ton. Other manufacturers will also adjust their prices.

This evening, Shandong Jinling Chemical announced further reduction in the price of propylene oxide by RMB 500 yuan/ton. It is expected that the market will follow it to adjust quotation tomorrow.

Market Trend in 7 days:

The traffic control imposed for the National Games in Tianjin will end on Sunday (September 10).

Besides, the fourth round of environmental inspection will be completed on next Monday (September 11).

Market Trend in 30 days:

A major inspection of production safety will be conducted nationwide from the beginning of this month to the end of it. The Work Safety Committee of the State Council will organize a comprehensive inspection of the production safety in all provinces, autonomous regions and cities, as well as Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps. Meanwhile, it will inspect the implementation of various measures to complete relevant tasks and make comprehensive evaluation. The evaluation results will be an important part of the assessment of the production safety work of the provincial governments in 2017 (accounting for 10% of the total scores of annual assessment).

25 days later, namely on 1 October, unlicensed manufacturers will be investigated and severely punished. It is said that inspection items include formalities relevant to industrial and commercial registration, project approval, land, planning, environmental impact assessment and fire safety inspection.

Market Analysis:

In this month, the upcoming inspection of unlicensed manufacturers and production safety will affect the production and even survival of some small and medium-sized downstream manufacturers. Though now it is the traditional peak season, the closure of some downstream or terminal small and medium-sized manufacturers will produce some side effects, leading to the so called “busy season is not busy”. Thus the bearish sentiment in the polyether polyols industry in late August will probably spread to September (from the point of view of the overall demand).

The domestic PO and polyether polyols market has seen limited new orders recently due to the downstream manufacturers’ wait-and-see attitude, which is a result of the fear of both high prices (including the high prices of TDI) and a decline. At this point, the imported PO and polyether polyols will increase the difficulty in China’s PO and polyether polyols sales. Previously, the prices of some imported goods were several hundred to a thousand yuan cheaper than domestic ones, but with largely the same quality. Therefore, the imports will drive the prices further down. Some market participants have estimated that the prices of PO and polyether polyols could drop as much as RMB 1500 yuan. Presently, they have dropped by RMB 900 yuan, and there is room for further drop. So the future market movement remains to be seen.

http://www.pudaily.com/News/NewsView.aspx?nid=66234