China Announces Export Controls on Five Critical Minerals

Proactive intelligence Alert

February 12, 2025

On February 4, 2025, China announced it would restrict exports of five critical minerals: tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, indium, and molybdenum. Industries dependent on these metals, including defense, renewable energy, electronics, and manufacturing, may experience supply chain disruptions, including delays, price increases, and supply bottlenecks, due to China’s leading role in their production.

	Tungsten	Artillery shells, armor plating, cutting tools, engine parts, airplane balancing weights.
	Tellurium	Solar panels, thermoelectric devices, infrared optics, steel alloys, and rechargeable batteries.
	Bismuth	Medical treatments, lead-free solder, cosmetics, flame retardants, and ammunition.
	Indium	Phone screens, TV displays, fiber-optic technology, semiconductors, and solar panels.
	Molybdenum	Missile components, nuclear reactors, steel alloys, lubricants, and high-temperature electronics.

Background 

China’s new export controls require licenses to export 20 tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, indium and molybdenum-related products to “safeguard national security interests.” China is the global leader of the rare earths industry overall, dominating about 69% of the world’s production and 90% of the world’s mining. China is the top producer of all five recently restricted metals.

China’s Production of Impacted Minerals

Source: Bloomberg

In recent years, China restricted the exports of several other critical minerals. In July 2023, China announced export restrictions on certain gallium and germanium products, metals essential in chip manufacturing, citing national security concerns. Following the announcement, prices for gallium and germanium surged, with gallium prices increasing by nearly 20% in the United States and Europe.

In August 2024, China announced restrictions on antimony, a metal used in defense technology. From August 2024 to December 2024, antimony shipments from China to the United States dropped 97% while prices rose 200%. In December 2024, China banned the export of gallium, germanium, and antimony to the United States entirely.

The scope of China’s export restrictions on the five minerals also includes a ban on the technology to process and refine the materials for their critical uses. This factor pressures rival economies to develop independent supply chains and creates short-term bottlenecks that could disrupt industries relying on these materials.

Exiger Insights

Although China’s recent restrictions do not single out exports to any particular country, the announcement followed the United States’ recent imposition of a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. It is not clear whether U.S. imports of the impacted minerals will qualify for licenses given China’s national security concerns and the minerals’ heavy use in U.S. defense and technology.

Anticipated Disruptions

Stakeholders should prepare for:

• Supply delays: The new licensing requirements may slow down the export process, leading to delays in receiving essential materials.
• Material shortages: Given China’s substantial share in the production of these metals, global shortages are possible until alternative sources are identified.
• Increased costs: Supply constraints may drive up prices for these metals, affecting production costs across impacted industries.

Recommendations

Stakeholders are advised to:

• Assess supply chain exposure: Identify dependencies on the restricted metals and evaluate the potential impact on operations.
• Explore alternative suppliers: Investigate other global sources for these metals or suitable substitutes to diversify supply chains.
• Communicate with customers: Proactively inform clients about potential delays or changes in product availability and manage expectations accordingly.

https://www.exiger.com/perspectives/critical-minerals-export-controls

China export curbs push European bismuth prices to highest since 2008

By Anushree Ashish Mukherjee and Ashitha Shivaprasad

February 21, 20254:39 AM ESTUpdated 5 days ago

• Summary

• China produced more than 80% of world’s bismuth last year – USGS
• Alternative producers include Korea, Japan and Laos

Feb 21 (Reuters) – Bismuth prices in Europe have soared to their highest in nearly 17 years after China’s plan to impose export curbs raised fears of curtailed supply for the metal used in medication, cosmetics and atomic research.

Earlier this month, China said it would implement export controls on five critical metals — tungsten, tellurium, molybdenum, bismuth, and indium — in retaliation to new tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump.

From $6 per lb previously, bismuth prices have surged to between $12 and $18 in the European spot market this week, the highest level since May 2008.

Traders expect to see higher bismuth prices.

China produced roughly 13,000 tons, or over 80% of the world’s supply, of bismuth last year, according to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS).

The rest comes from countries, including Japan, South Korea and Laos. However, traders say the availability from other nations was limited compared to China.

“We have received many inquiries from both our EU and our U.S. customers,” a trader based in Europe said, adding that U.S. consumers would be more vulnerable if the China-U.S. trade war escalates.

The U.S. has been heavily reliant on imports since it stopped production of primary refined bismuth in 1997, according to the USGS.

If the U.S. was completely cut off from Chinese bismuth supplies, production outside China would have to grow by 22% to meet demand, said Jost Wubbeke, Managing Partner at Sinolytics.

“It is hard to find cheap and stable alternative supplies, especially when everyone’s trying to find new sources at the same time.”

As trade tensions escalate, China is expected to further leverage its dominance in critical minerals to retaliate.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/china-export-curbs-push-european-bismuth-prices-highest-since-2008-2025-02-21