Chinese TDI Market Overview
China TDI Market Overview in H1 of 2016
- TDI Market
China TDI market undergoes both big booms and busts in H1 of 2016, with continuous weak trend from January to March, beginning to go up since April and moving down since H1 of June after soaring from mid-May. Domestic TDI market maintains sluggish running since H2 of 2015, with prices hovering around RMB 11,000-12,000/ton in long term from January to March. In late March, TDI USD prices in SE market pick up continuously on ration supply in Japan caused by unplanned shutdown at TDI plant in Omuta on cool equipment breakdown, and TDI RMB prices follow to go up ongoing peak season since April. Domestic TDI prices start to stride up significantly since mdi-May and peak at RMB 16,000-17,000/ton in early June on account of tight supply in China market amid excellent TDI export resulted from continuous supply shortage in overseas market as well as regular maintenance from local producers. Nevertheless, China TDI market starts to go down due to fewer demands from down streams along with multiply bearish news since H1 of June when entering into slack season.
China TDI market is expected to maintain tepid in July and August, regain a degree of buoyancy since September and enter into dull season again in November and December. Firstly, domestic market will keep sluggish running from July to August because of weakening demand in slack season. But TDI export from local producers may be boosted as Mitsui delay its TDI facility restart to mid-August, which may promote the domestic market to some extent. Besides, China TDI market is likely to resume boom running since September in peak season with more demand from downstream buyers but less output from TDI producers in Shanghai due to G20 conference in Hangzhou in early September. Furthermore, the market may decline again in winter from November to December when downstream factories slow production.
- Im & Ex Analysis
China TDI imports from January to June under the HS code of 29291010 were 9,540 tons, down by 15.4% year on year. South China is the main import destination, occupying 72.7% of the total imports. The leading origins were South Korea and Japan, taking up 44.4% and 44.1% respectively.
China TDI exports from January to June were 54,482 tons, up by 125.73% significantly year on year. Covestro Shanghai, BASF Shanghai and Yantai Juli are the three leading exporters, accounting for 78.7%, 9.3% and 5.2% respectively. And the three main export destinations are India (5,357 tons), Taiwan (4,313 tons）and Indonesia (4,179 tons), making up 12.7%, 10.2% and 9.9% of the total exports respectively.
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