Chinese TDI Update
TDI Supply and Demand Overview in China in 2018
PUdaily, Shanghai– 1. TDI supply and demand in China for the first three quarters
According to PUdaily, the output of TDI in China for the first three quarters amounted to about 660,000 tons. By contrast, the actual consumption for this period stood at about 610,000 tons, or a quarterly average consumption of around 204,000 tons. In Q4, due to Covestro’s one-and-a-half- month maintenance domestic TDI supply amounted to about 185,000 tons. Plus the social inventory at the end of the third quarter, the domestic supply and demand are largely in balance. Based on the figure for the first three quarters, PUdaily estimates that TDI consumption for the full year will reach 780,000 tons, up 3-4% year over year.
In terms of the downstream furniture sector, according to www.askci.com, 27.88 million pieces of upholstered furniture were produced in the first half of this year, up about 3% year on year. In the second half, when the peak season for the sector will come, the production is expected to rise by more than 3%. By contrast, the output increased by 10.2% in 2017. When it comes to the car sector, According to the statistics of China Association of Automobile Manufactures, China’s car output and sales for the first three quarters totalled 20.4913 million and 20.4906 million units, up 0.87% and 1.49% year over year, compared with 3.2% and 3.0% for the same period last year. The sluggish demands from end-use sectors lead to the drop in TDI price.
2. New TDI capacities in China
Domestic new TDI capacities had not come onstream as scheduled by the start of December. Thus, the main TDI producers in China are still Covestro, BASF, Cangzhou Dahua, Gansu Yinguang Chemical, Fujian Petrochemical Industrial and Yantai Juli, with their combined output staying at 840,000 tons/year.
As for domestic new capacities, Wanhua’s 300k t/a TDI integrated plant is undergoing debugging. Huludao Lianshi Chemicals’ 50k t/a facility conducted successful trial production last week. Xinjiang Heshan Juli Chemical’s 150k t/a TDI facility is scheduled to come onstream around the middle of next year. In addition, Fujian Petrochemical Industrial plans to build a 150k t/a facility in 2019. Then it will expand the capacity of the existing facility from 100,000 tons/year to 150,000 tons/year. Thus, the producer’s total capacity will reach 300,000 tons/year. It can be seen that the coming years will see a lot of new capacities. Against this backdrop, the slowing growth in demand will result in fiercer competition.
Forecast of TDI supply and demand for 2019
|New capacities to Come||Capacity (in 10k tons/year)||On-stream date|
|Wanhua Chemical||300||December, 2018|
|Huludao Lianshi Chemicals||50||December, 2018|
|Xinjiang Heshan Juli Chemical||150||The middle of 2019|
|Total new capacity for 2019||500|
|Capacity for 2018||840|
|Total capacity for 2019||1,340|
|Estimated consumption for 2019||839|
|Conclusion||Excess capacity and intensified competition|
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