Chinese TDI Update from March

TDI Market Keeps Firm in March

Updated: 2018-03-02 14:43 Source: PUWORLD share:

Graph 1: 2016-2018.2 Market Prices of TDI in East China (unit: RMB/ton)

Graph 2: List Prices and Settlement Prices of Some TDI Enterprises during Q1 in 2016-2018

TDI Market Generally Goes Upward during Q1

With the Spring Festival coming to an end, new changes are arising in TDI market. Recently, major TDI factories have announced an rise in the price:

On February.25th, Covestro increases the fixed price by RMB 1,000 /ton to RMB 39,800 ton.

The settlement price for February announced by BASF is at RMB 38,800/ton, RMB 200/ton higher than last month whilst the list price for March at RMB 46,000/ton, RMB 1,000/ton higher than last month.Cangzhou Dahua increases the fixed price by RMB 500 to RMB 39,000/ton.

According to the analysis result of Orisage Consulting, TDI prices have kept escalating during Q1 in 3 years, for both market prices and major enterprises’ fixed prices. The downward trend presenting at the end of 2015 continued next year, resulting in low prices during Q1 in 2016. Hitting the bottom, prices turned upward as downstream demand recovered. TDI prices came back to a reasonable level at the end of 2016. Since a small production season approached after the Spring Festival, prices slightly improved during Q1 in 2017.

Affected by Tight Supply, TDI Prices Shift on High Level in Early 2018

Gansu Yinguang’s unit fault and BASF’s limited supply together result in tight supply and elevated prices in the overall market before the Spring Festival in early 2018. Due to high prices, some downstream foam factories fail to stock up. After the festival, recovering capacity frees up the demand of stocking up, exerting an active impact on prices. Meanwhile, according to some TDI factories, downstream demand maintains great growth in 2018 compared with 2017.

TDI Prices for March 2018 Are Likely to Stay Elevated

Major TDI factories’ increasing quotations after the festival indicate that factories are still positive about the market. Though downstream foam factories gradually ramp up production with improving demand side, the supply condition of the market remains tight.

According to some TDI factories, the current inventory level remains low, with production plans still aiming at deliveries of earlier orders. Since factories have no downward pressure in prices in short time, TDI prices are unlikely to drop in the near future. It is expected that TDI prices for March will keep stable on high level. In the medium term, TDI prices perhaps will not fall back until the approach of a slack season in Q2.

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