Olin Corporation (OLN) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Jan. 26, 2024 11:38 AM ETOlin Corporation (OLN) Stock

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Q4: 2024-01-25 Earnings Summary

EPS of $0.27 beats by $0.09 | Revenue of $1.61B (-18.33% Y/Y) beats by $94.55M

Olin Corporation (NYSE:OLN) Q4 2023 Results Conference Call January 26, 2024 9:00 AM ET

Company Participants

Steve Keenan – Director, IR

Scott Sutton – Chief Executive Officer

Todd Slater – Chief Financial Officer

Scott Sutton

Thanks Steve, and good morning to all. In the fourth quarter, the Olin team delivered the four items that were promised, which were $210 million of adjusted EBITDA overcoming a negative $100 million EBITDA impact from our purposeful value accelerator initiative. Stopping the decline of ECU values as a result of our value accelerator initiative, completing the remaining purchase of 10% of our outstanding equity in 2023, and setting the company up for a 2024 that is better than 2023.

We start that set up by making the first quarter of the New Year better than the fourth quarter of the past year. We are also very pleased that outside of the minor purchase price for the White Flyer acquisition, Olin’s net debt at the end of 2023 was essentially the same as the net debt at the beginning of 2023.

Since this could well be my last Olin earnings call. I wanted to remind everyone that Olin has a very unique value creation equation of lifting people to a higher level of fulfillment, delivering value on a contemporary basis through a novel idea pipeline and practicing absolute leadership in commerce. This unique value equation opens a long runway to a very positive future and our leadership team will take Olin there. The earnings and cash flow power of Olin is huge.

Arun Viswanathan

So I guess, I just wanted to ask first on the guidance. So, it looks like you’re expecting some growth in ’24. How do you see that proceeding? Looks like your Q1 guidance is a little bit below where we were expecting. So, I know that you’re implementing the value accelerator initiative. So, maybe you can just kind of walk us through some of the growth you expect, as you move through the quarters in ’24?

Scott Sutton

Good morning, Arun. Happy to do that. I mean, we’re really forecasting some profit growth, right. And if you just walk through the three businesses, and I’ll just start with Winchester. I mean, we are right in the middle of doubling our military business and that is on-track both domestically and internationally.

In the commercial side of that business, demand stays rather high. And on top of that, we have the White Flyer acquisition for a full year. And on top of that, there’s going to be a shortage of propellant across the industry this year and Winchester is well-positioned to take advantage of that. So, we feel really good about the profit growth in Winchester.

Look, in Epoxy, it’s much more a self-help story. We’re not necessarily anticipating demand growth, but clearly the restructuring work that we did is applicable for a whole year. Our focus on systems is working. We don’t have to clean up inventory as much as we did in 2023. And we’re going to work on the illegal flow of products coming from Asia as well.

Arun Viswanathan

And then if I could just ask, is there any update on the search for new CEO [indiscernible]?

Scott Sutton

Look, Arun, I mean, I really don’t have an update on that. And I’m really sorry for that, because look, our shareholders and our Olin women and men, who have really built this value for those shareholders, they deserve a lot better than that from me. But I’m out of the process. That process is 100% run buy our independent board members only. What I can say is to the best of my knowledge, I’m not aware of any offer being extended out there yet to any candidate.

Kevin McCarthy

Scott, I’d welcome your updated thoughts on the shape of the Epoxy cycle. If I look at Slide 8, it appears as though your prices eroded in 4Q versus 3Q. How do you think that will trend in the first quarter? And then, I’m also interested to hear your thoughts on Epoxy’s in Europe. We’re reading about disruptions in trade routes relative to the Red Sea and purchasing managers seem to want to kind of get ahead of those longer lead times and increased tensions and friction and so forth. How do you see the next quarter or two shaping up for Epoxy?

Scott Sutton

Look, I mean, we’ve announced price increase and we’re getting some price increase. And in fact, if you really looked at what’s happened over the last few months has been more of a wash tub bottom. It really hasn’t declined further. In fact, even the trade publications now are saying that this is a bottom. Believe me, we absolutely say that this is a bottom. And the disruptions for trade routes that is starting to have an impact, particularly in Europe.

So there’s a lot of momentum for the start of lifting prices again through Epoxy. It’s going to be slow though. I think, what you’ll end up seeing us do is sort of take that wash tub and profit up a little bit. I wouldn’t expect something really, really fast there, but we’re going to change the slope of that curve.

David Begleiter

And just again on Epoxy, what’s the path back to mid-cycle earnings given the amount of oversupply in the marketplace today?

Scott Sutton

Well, I guess it depends on what you call mid-cycle in that business. But I’ll just say it’s a multiyear path and maybe leave it at that.

Jeff Zekauskas

Earlier in the call, you spoke of a large contract that can end in 2030. Did that customer indicate that they didn’t wish to renew?

Scott Sutton

What I would say is that’s the natural expiration of that contract. And we’re currently in a dispute with a very significant value lift opportunity. So we’ll just have to see where that goes by 2030.

Vincent Anderson

So, maybe you have a different view, but it looks like China is probably still planning a fair amount of capacity up and down the Epoxy value chain over the next few years. So, to me at least it would appear that trade protections might be necessary even if we did see some amount of demand recovery. So, I guess to turn that into a question, are you still considering trade cases in Epoxy? And how important is sort of your renewed focus on fleshing out your derivative portfolio as a balance to the operating leverage on the base resin assets?

Scott Sutton

Yes, sure. I mean, no, we’re absolutely doing more than considering that, right. I mean, look, effectively this is illegal product trade flows coming into both Europe and the U.S. And this has to be stopped. And for some of the reasons that you said, it’s likely to continue. So, we’re absolutely going to pursue that.

I think in terms of getting rates up, we’ve reduced our on the ground capacity quite a bit and we’re using our systems portfolio to get some operating leverage back across our base resin. I think that was the second part of your question.

John Roberts

Thank you, and best wishes as well, Scott. I think acetone prices spiked during the quarter. Is that just the normal co-product dynamics with the weak BPA market for Epoxies or is there something else going on there?

Scott Sutton

Yes. I mean principally that’s it. You’re right. I mean phenol acetone co-production a little bit like chlorine caustic. And we sort of transferred some of our model that we run in the ECU world into our phenol acetone production and marketing scheme. And so you’ve seen us take advantage of that and get some value out of assets.

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