After a pitiful drop in May, building permits rebounded galantly in June (+7.4% MoM – the most since Nov 2015)…

Both Single- and Multi-family jumped…

and following three straight monthly declines, housing starts rose 8.3% MoM in June – the biggest jump since Dec 2016.

Both Single- and Multi-family jumped…

Starts bounced off unch YoY…

The biggest gains were seen in Northeast Starts – which rose 83.7%!!!

This rebound in building and prospective future building seems odd though, considering homebuilder confidence just cratered to 8-month lows…with homebuilders citing “lumber costs” as causing them to cut supply?

NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz said, “builders will need to manage some increasing supply-side costs to keep home prices competitive.”

“Our members are telling us they are growing increasingly concerned over rising material prices, particularly lumber,” said NAHB Chairman Granger MacDonald, a home builder and developer from Kerrville, Texas.

 

“This is hurting housing affordability even as consumer interest in the new-home market remains strong.”

Which is odd because Lumber prices are still below the April 25th levels when Trump invoked the tariff...

So what happens next?