Dow Inc. (DOW) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Oct. 23, 2025 12:27 PM ETDow Inc. (DOW) StockDOW

Q3: 2025-10-23 Earnings Summary

EPS of -$0.19 beats by $0.11

 | Revenue of $9.97B (-8.33% Y/Y) misses by $255.13M

Dow Inc. (NYSE:DOW) Q3 2025 Earnings Call October 23, 2025 8:00 AM EDT

Company Participants

Andrew Riker – Vice President of Investor Relations
James Fitterling – Chairman & CEO
Karen Carter – Chief Operating Officer
Jeffrey Tate – Chief Financial Officer

James Fitterling
Chairman & CEO

Thank you, Andrew. Beginning on Slide 3. In the third quarter, we executed against Dow’s strategic priorities to deliver sequential earnings and cash flow improvement despite continued pressure across the industry. These results reflect our focus on navigating the near term while positioning the company for profitable growth when our industry recovers.

In the third quarter, we delivered net sales of $10 billion. Sequentially, gains in our Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure segment were more than offset by declines in Packaging & Specialty Plastics and Performance Materials & Coatings. EBITDA was $868 million, and while this is lower than the same period last year, our earnings reflect an improvement over second quarter. This was driven by volume gains stemming from our new growth investments in the U.S. Gulf Coast, lower planned maintenance activity and the progress we’re making on our cost reduction actions.

Cash provided by operating activities was up $1.6 billion sequentially, primarily driven by working capital improvements, and advanced payments for low carbon solutions and other long-term supply agreements. We also delivered $249 million of dividends, reflecting our commitment to competitive shareholder returns over the cycle.

Next, Karen will provide some additional context around the more than $6.5 billion in actions that we have completed or currently have in-flight.

Karen Carter
Chief Operating Officer

Thank you, Jim. We advanced several strategic actions in the third quarter. We announced an expansion of our strategic agreement with MEGlobal to formalize the contractual offtake of an additional 100 KT of ethylene supply at attractive economics for both parties. We closed the second and final phase of our strategic infrastructure asset partnership in the U.S. Gulf Coast delivering $3 billion in total proceeds for Dow this year.

We completed the second of 2 previously announced non-core divestitures, delivering a total of approximately $250 million at attractive EBITDA multiples of around 10x. And we issued an additional $1.4 billion bond to take advantage of tight credit spreads, providing added financial flexibility.

We are progressing the delivery of at least $1 billion in targeted cost savings by the end of 2026. We are on track to deliver approximately $400 million of the cost savings this year, which was clearly visible in our third quarter performance. We have also lowered our CapEx spending in alignment with our $1 billion reduction target this year compared to our original plan of $3.5 billion. This reduction is largely due to our decision to delay the Alberta project until market conditions improve.

As we announced in April, this decision supports our near-term cash flow and adjusts our timing to align with the market recovery. We remain committed to the long-term strategic rationale of the Alberta project, which further improves our industry-leading cost position and the growth upside that it will enable and targeted applications like pressure pipe, wire and cable and food packaging.

However, our expectations for when this capacity will be needed have changed, given the prolonged down cycle our industry is facing. As we committed, we will provide an update on this during our fourth quarter earnings call in January. Any decisions related to the project time line will remain centered on maximizing value.

So taken all together, these near-term strategic actions demonstrate Team Dow’s continued efforts to adjust our cost structure and response to the current operating environment. These actions also support our overarching goal to build a more simplified modern Dow that consistently delivers strong performance, profitable growth and lasting competitiveness.

Next, I’ll turn to our operating segment performance on Slide 4. In the third quarter, we continued to focus on margin improvement, while prioritizing volume growth in attractive end markets such as food packaging, electronics, home care and pharma. We also took decisive actions to lower our cost base and progress our cost savings actions.

Next, turning to our Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure segment on Slide 5. Net sales were down 4% year-over-year driven by continued pricing pressures globally, resulting in an 8% impact on revenue. Sequentially, net sales increased, reflecting volume gains in both businesses and all regions. This was supported by lower planned maintenance activity and the start-up of one of our near-term growth projects, which partly offset lower prices. Volume increased 2% compared to the year ago period, driven by gains in the U.S. and Canada and both businesses as well as in energy applications.

Sequentially, volume increased 5% with improved supply availability following planned maintenance activities in both businesses as well as additional volumes from our new alkoxylation unit in Seadrift, Texas.

Operating EBIT for the segment increased versus the year ago period, driven by higher volumes and operating rates as well as lower fixed costs, which were partly offset by lower prices. Sequentially, operating EBIT increased by $138 million. This was driven by lower planned maintenance activity and higher volume in both businesses. This volume growth was enabled by the startup of our new alkoxylation unit in the U.S. Gulf Coast, which serves more resilient home and personal care end markets.

Jeffrey Tate
Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Karen. Good morning to everyone participating in today’s call. Turning to Slide 7. We continue to advance several strategic priorities to support Dow’s near-term cash flow, further enhance our balance sheet and deliver structural improvements. This positions the company for growth and better profitability and the recovery. For example, this quarter, we completed the second phase of our strategic partnership with Macquarie for the sale of a 49% equity stake in select U.S. Gulf Coast infrastructure assets, receiving approximately $3 billion in total cash proceeds this year.

With that, I’ll share some of the key indicators we’re continuing to track on Slide 8. The broader macroeconomic landscape remains largely unchanged since our last update. As it relates to Dow’s key market verticals, while we are seeing some pockets of stability, a broader recovery has yet to take hold. Based on the visibility we have through current customer orders; we continue to see a cautious operating environment. Business investment and consumer spending are subdued due to ongoing economic uncertainty and affordability challenges. These dynamics are impacting demand across several key end markets Dow serves.

At the same time, recent monetary policy shifts and the beginning of a rate cutting cycle could begin to more positively influence demand. And our packaging market vertical, global demand remains steady.

Industry growth in North America was supported by record September domestic and export volumes. Manufacturing activity in China continues to be modest, while Europe contracted in September. In the infrastructure sector, market conditions remain soft across the United States, Europe and China. In the U.S., 30-year mortgage rates have eased modestly, but remain above 6% this month. Demand is unlikely to increase in the near term due to limited affordability, but lower mortgage rates could spur a recovery in 2026 as conditions improve.

Consumer spending has remained resilient, but with that, confidence is low, which has been driving value-seeking behaviors. In September, U.S. consumer confidence declined to its lowest level since April and sentiment in the EU remains below historical averages. In China, retail sales grew year-over-year in August, but at its slowest pace since last November. And in mobility, we continue to see mixed demand signals across the industry and regions. In the U.S., auto sales rose in August as consumers moved ahead of the EV tax credit expiration. And in China, government incentives for EVs also continued to support higher auto sales and production.

This strength has helped offset weakness in internal combustion vehicles, including in Europe, where new car registrations are down year-to-date. Given this backdrop, we will continue to focus on the actions within our control. Doing so helps Dow to navigate the complexities of this down cycle while strategically positioning the company to capitalize when the market conditions do improve.

Next, I’ll turn to our outlook for the fourth quarter on Slide 9. The macroeconomic dynamics that I described continue to limit visibility into customer buying patterns, making projections challenging. As always, we’re committed to maintaining transparency and will provide timely updates if they become available. Based on current indicators and normal seasonality, we anticipate our fourth quarter EBITDA to be approximately $725 million. Our disciplined and targeted cost actions and lower planned maintenance activities are expected to provide sequential tailwinds.

Normal seasonality, especially in building and construction end markets, should be a headwind for our Performance Materials & Coatings and Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure segments.

In Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure, we expect fourth quarter EBITDA to be approximately $20 million lower than the third quarter. This is largely driven by seasonally lower demand in building and construction. Additionally, we anticipate margin compression from higher energy costs and pricing pressures. We’ll see this primarily in Europe, the Middle East, Africa and India as Asian exporters redirect volumes into the region from prior U.S. locations where those volumes would now be subject to dumping duties.

Sequential tailwinds are expected to be provided by higher demand for deicing fluids, lower turnaround spending and our cost reduction actions.

James Fitterling
Chairman & CEO

Thank you, Jeff. Turning to Slide 10. The prolonged down cycle continues to weigh on our entire industry, but we’re starting to see some encouraging actions in response, most notably around addressing industry oversupply. Specifically, announcements to date include significant rationalization of global ethylene, propylene oxide and siloxane capacities, each of which will benefit Dow’s diversified portfolio.

The vast majority are occurring in Asia and Europe, targeting assets that sit high on the global cost curve. This includes Dow’s decision to shut down 3 European assets across each of our operating segments in order to rightsize upstream regional capacity, reduced merchant sale exposure and remove higher cost energy-intensive parts of our portfolio.

Dow’s rationalization announcements and those from industry peers have exceeded the majority of consultant projections, paving the way for improved operating rates, which will also be supported by anticipated polyethylene demand growth remaining above GDP for the foreseeable future.

As we have experienced through prior down cycles, we expect to see additional announcements and actions until more visible signs of recovery begin to materialize. As it relates to anticompetitive oversupply activities, our teams continue to be actively engaged in conversations with governments around the world to mitigate impact, aggressively defend local production and to ensure a fair-trade environment remains. These discussions have led to various actions and duties to protect local industries, including MDI in the United States, polyols in Brazil and more.

Dow’s global asset footprint and product portfolio position us well to win in the key markets that we serve, particularly as purchasing patterns trend for buying local products and materials to mitigate any potential tariff headwinds.

Karen Carter
Chief Operating Officer

Thank you, Jim. We are pleased to see several of the industry actions that you described beginning to unfold. We continue to monitor both supply and demand signals, and we’re staying close to our customers and key external stakeholders to understand their unique challenges while identifying opportunities to drive profitable growth. At the same time, our teams are working to lower Dow’s cost structure, enhance our cash position and strengthen our manufacturing footprint through the shutdown of higher cost assets and the start-up of our advantaged growth investments serving high-value end markets.

And as the macroeconomic environment improves, our actions will ensure Dow is best positioned to beat our competition, capitalizing on our key advantages.

First and foremost, we are committed to being a low-cost producer. Currently, more than 75% of our global cracking capacity is in a top quartile cost position. This number will increase to approximately 80% once we complete the announced shutdown of our Böhlen cracker.

In addition, we continue to upgrade our world-class asset footprint by rightsizing higher cost capacity across a variety of value chain, including the shutdowns of 500 KT of PO capacity in North America, 150 KT of upstream siloxanes production in the U.K. and one of our CAV units in Germany.

Our downstream specialties capacity helps to differentiate and improve Dow’s performance across the economic cycle, which will become more evident when our previously announced shutdowns are completed. And our innovation capabilities also enable strong earnings compared to our peers over the cycle as evidenced in this year’s annual benchmarking report.

So to summarize, with the addition of our U.S. Gulf Coast investments, broad product range, leading cost efficiency and global scale, Dow is set to gain share in premiums in markets that traditionally grow above GDP like packaging, electronics, mobility and consumer goods. And we are confident that Dow’s differentiated portfolio paired with our team’s strong execution will position us to outperform as the industry recovers.

Jeffrey Tate
Chief Financial Officer

Vincent, this is Jeff. I’ll just make a couple of additional comments here related to cash flow. And even on the cost reductions that Karen was just mentioning, initially in our guide for 3Q, we expect it to be approximately $50 million tailwind for us, and it was actually better than that as September came in a little bit stronger on the cost reduction side at about $75 million. So about a $25 million improvement there. I do want to spend a second on the cash flow as well, though, because you’ll notice that our cash from operations came in at $1.1 billion in third quarter, which was an improvement sequentially of $1.6 billion.

And that was really driven by 3 different areas here. Sizable improvement in our working capital. The team has done a phenomenal job of continuing to really double down on the working capital improvement going into the second half of the year. In fact, as you heard in my prepared remarks, we’re expecting in the second half of the year, our working capital to deliver a release of cash of $200 million to $300 million, and we saw $80 million of that working capital improvement in terms of a source of cash during the third quarter. We also had the 2 long-term strategic supply agreements that Karen mentioned in her prepared remarks, as well as the improved earnings that we have sequentially from second quarter to third quarter.

Matthew Blair
Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC, Research Division

I was hoping you could talk a little bit more about some of the moving parts in your polyurethanes business. Are you seeing any benefits to U.S. MDI margins from tariff impacts that have reduced imports from places like China. Also on the — just on the construction end market side, I think you mentioned that rates are coming lower but is it fair to say that’s not really coming through in the market yet.

And then finally, do you have any sort of commentary you can provide on the relative strength with your polyols business versus your isocyanates business. Is one holding up a little bit better than the other?

James Fitterling
Chairman & CEO

Thanks, Matthew. Karen, do you want to tackle that?

Karen Carter
Chief Operating Officer

Sure. So let me start just with the building and construction market because you’re right. We did see rates come down, but we definitely believe that they need to come down further for us to see really a recovery in that space. They’re currently sitting in the mid-6% range. We believe they’ll probably need to have a 5 handle on them before we see any reasonable recovery in that segment. And of course, as we said before, about 40% of our products are aligned to infrastructure across our entire portfolio. So it’s a good start, but it’s not good enough for us to see a recovery.

Let me answer your second question, maybe it was your first on MDI because we are encouraged by some of the recent rulings that we’ve seen around antidumping. And so in September, the U.S. Department of Commerce made a preliminary finding concluding that MDI dumping was occurring by Chinese producers in the United States. Chinese imports account for about 20% of the MDI market here.

And so industry imports are reporting that on top of the preexisting duties that were already there, that the market for Chinese imports is dissipating quite quickly. And so we are seeing some starts of additional volume, not yet a lot of pricing there, but we are seeing some additional volume. And again, I have been encouraged by those initial findings.

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