Global propylene markets will continue to see healthy supply availability in the second half of 2019 as fresh capacity comes online in Asia and US inventory levels remain strong.
The Urethane Blog
Everchem Updates
VOLUME XXI
September 14, 2023
Everchem’s exclusive Closers Only Club is reserved for only the highest caliber brass-baller salesmen in the chemical industry. Watch the hype video and be introduced to the top of the league: — read more
July 17, 2019
Beijing’s Air Is the Cleanest It’s Been Since Records Began in 1984
/SOURCE : yicai
Beijing’s Air Is the Cleanest It’s Been Since Records Began in 1984 (Yicai Global) July 17 — Beijing had the lowest concentrations of four major air pollutants for the period January to June since records began 35 years ago, showing that the city’s continued efforts to improve air quality are paying off.
Air quality reached the required standard for 113 days, or 62.4 percent of the time, according to information released today by the Beijing Municipal Ecological Environment Bureau. Only three days were heavily polluted, five days less than the same period last year.
The city’s PM2.5 concentrations were controlled between 38 and 50 micrograms per cubic meter in the first half of this year, indicating good air quality, the bureau’s report said. PM2.5 refers to particulate matter that is 2.5 micrometers in diameter or smaller and is dangerous to human health.
Beijing set up an air monitoring system in 1984, which was upgraded before the 2008 Olympic Games. Since January 2012, readings have been made public on a daily basis.
The city is ahead of schedule in meeting additional pollution control targets introduced by the municipality in February. It has taken 25,000 obsolete heavy-duty diesel vehicles with substandard emissions off the roads, is promoting electric taxi use and new policies have been applied to over 30,000 green taxis this year. It has also closed 323 industrial manufacturing plants with high emission levels.
The report went on to say that the capital had an average PM2.5 concentration of 46mcg per cubic meter in the first six months, down 13.2 percent from a year earlier. PM10 fell 10.5 percent to 77mcg, sulfur dioxide plunged 28.6 percent to 5mcg and nitrogen dioxide was down 2.6 percent at 37mcg.
https://yicaiglobal.com/news/beijing-air-is-the-cleanest-it-been-since-records-began-in-1984
July 15, 2019
H2 Outlook: Global propylene supply to remain healthy on extra capacity, strong inventories
Highlights
H2 Outlook: Global propylene supply to remain healthy on extra capacity, strong inventories
US inventories establish records in 2019
US-Europe arbitrage under pressure, but outlook mixed
Asia likely to stay stable-to-soft as a result of additional PDH plants
- Author
- Lara Berton
- Editor
- Keiron Greenhalgh
As supply improved, alongside a slowdown in derivatives demand, global propylene spot prices fell this year from the multi-year highs seen in 2018, and the US market has taken the steepest dive.
US propylene supply has recovered in the first half of 2019, as production from propane dehydrogenation units has improved. This was in line with expectations for the front half of the year, and eventually led to record high inventory levels of 6.459 million barrels in March, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
Trade participants have said this is something they expect to continue for the remainder of the year.
Inventory levels have gradually come down since March, but are still well above inventory levels a year ago. At the end of June, US inventories stood at 4.960 million barrels, compared with 2.324 million barrels at the end of June 2018. Market participants have said stocks should build again following mid-year turnarounds at some heavy cracker units. But sources added that all three US PDH units are still expected to have see type of turnaround between October and February 2020.
The overall increase in inventories has pressured US propylene spot prices, leaving them well below 2018 levels. Polymer-grade propylene spot prices hit a low of 32 cents/lb ($705/mt) FD USG in late February before rebounding and then receding again to 32 cents/lb FD USG in mid-June.
US EXPORTS INCREASE, BUT ARBITRAGE TO EUROPE CHALLENGED IN H2
As supply length pushed spot prices to levels not seen since the end of 2016, US propylene exports have increased through the first four months of 2019, according to data from the US International Trade Commission. Volumes mainly headed to Latin America, and market participants have said they expect this to continue throughout 2019.
Europe has also seen an increase in shipments of US molecules as players anticipated supply tightness amid a heavy steam cracker turnaround schedule in the second quarter.
According to Eurostat data, imports from the US in the first four months of 2019 averaged 13,600 mt/month, compared with 920 mt/month in the same period in 2018. Meanwhile, imports reached an all-time high in February of 63,760 mt, the data show.
Since the beginning of 2019, Europe polymer grade propylene has traded at a premium to other regions before falling below $1,000/mt FD NWE, close to levels in Asia and narrowing the gap with the US.
With that recent relative weakness, market players have started questioning if arbitrage opportunities still exist, already anticipating a decline in imports from the US.
The premium of the European PGP spot price over its US equivalent was calculated at between $150/mt and $200/mt at the beginning of July, meaning the arbitrage was closed on paper.
“The arbitrage has been challenged, but from a volume perspective there is enough propylene for July and August,” one European player said.
However, more planned maintenance is expected in Europe between August and October, meaning supply could turn tighter if the current trend continues.
ATTENTION IN ASIA TURNS TO NEW CAPACITY
Meanwhile, the Asian market will focus on startups, with more than 1.2 million mt/year of extra propylene production capacity expected to come online in China by H2.
This includes China’s Fujian Meide Petrochemical’s 660,000 mt/year PDH plant in September and Dongguan Juzhengyuan’s 600,000 mt/year PDH plant by the end of H2. The additional capacity could reduce Chinese reliance on imported cargoes and exert pressure on spot price.
“We imported 600,000 mt of propylene feedstock for our two 500,000 mt/year polypropylene plants last year and will reduce the imports by 400,000 mt once our PDH plant is operating at full rate,” said a company source at Fujian Meide Petrochemical.
As for the rest of Southeast Asia, Northeast Asia and South Korea, there will be less turnarounds in H2 compared with the front half of the year, ensuring a relatively stable supply of propylene, especially in the final three months of the year. Three steam crackers in the region with a total propylene capacity of over 1.5 million mt/year were heard to have plans for turnarounds in the current quarter. Chandra Asia, the major player in Indonesia, is expected to shut down its cracker for turnaround by August 1, while Formosa Petrochemical’s No. 2 steam cracker unit will carry out scheduled maintenance by mid-August. Lotte Chemical is scheduled to shut its Daesan cracker by October 14.
Other market participants were keeping a close watch on the Malaysia’s Petronas-Aramco RAPID project, which has experienced delays in the startup of the cracker and refinery. The complex’s RFCC is now scheduled to produce 600,000 mt/year of propylene by the end of Q3, but is only due to produce on-spec propylene in Q4, according to a source with direct knowledge of the matter.
— Lara Berton, Lara.Berton@spglobal.com
— Edited by Keiron Greenhalgh, newsdesk@spglobal.com
July 15, 2019
H2 Outlook: Global propylene supply to remain healthy on extra capacity, strong inventories
Highlights
H2 Outlook: Global propylene supply to remain healthy on extra capacity, strong inventories
US inventories establish records in 2019
US-Europe arbitrage under pressure, but outlook mixed
Asia likely to stay stable-to-soft as a result of additional PDH plants
- Author
- Lara Berton
- Editor
- Keiron Greenhalgh
Global propylene markets will continue to see healthy supply availability in the second half of 2019 as fresh capacity comes online in Asia and US inventory levels remain strong.
As supply improved, alongside a slowdown in derivatives demand, global propylene spot prices fell this year from the multi-year highs seen in 2018, and the US market has taken the steepest dive.
US propylene supply has recovered in the first half of 2019, as production from propane dehydrogenation units has improved. This was in line with expectations for the front half of the year, and eventually led to record high inventory levels of 6.459 million barrels in March, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
Trade participants have said this is something they expect to continue for the remainder of the year.
Inventory levels have gradually come down since March, but are still well above inventory levels a year ago. At the end of June, US inventories stood at 4.960 million barrels, compared with 2.324 million barrels at the end of June 2018. Market participants have said stocks should build again following mid-year turnarounds at some heavy cracker units. But sources added that all three US PDH units are still expected to have see type of turnaround between October and February 2020.
The overall increase in inventories has pressured US propylene spot prices, leaving them well below 2018 levels. Polymer-grade propylene spot prices hit a low of 32 cents/lb ($705/mt) FD USG in late February before rebounding and then receding again to 32 cents/lb FD USG in mid-June.
US EXPORTS INCREASE, BUT ARBITRAGE TO EUROPE CHALLENGED IN H2
As supply length pushed spot prices to levels not seen since the end of 2016, US propylene exports have increased through the first four months of 2019, according to data from the US International Trade Commission. Volumes mainly headed to Latin America, and market participants have said they expect this to continue throughout 2019.
Europe has also seen an increase in shipments of US molecules as players anticipated supply tightness amid a heavy steam cracker turnaround schedule in the second quarter.
According to Eurostat data, imports from the US in the first four months of 2019 averaged 13,600 mt/month, compared with 920 mt/month in the same period in 2018. Meanwhile, imports reached an all-time high in February of 63,760 mt, the data show.
Since the beginning of 2019, Europe polymer grade propylene has traded at a premium to other regions before falling below $1,000/mt FD NWE, close to levels in Asia and narrowing the gap with the US.
With that recent relative weakness, market players have started questioning if arbitrage opportunities still exist, already anticipating a decline in imports from the US.
The premium of the European PGP spot price over its US equivalent was calculated at between $150/mt and $200/mt at the beginning of July, meaning the arbitrage was closed on paper.
“The arbitrage has been challenged, but from a volume perspective there is enough propylene for July and August,” one European player said.
However, more planned maintenance is expected in Europe between August and October, meaning supply could turn tighter if the current trend continues.
ATTENTION IN ASIA TURNS TO NEW CAPACITY
Meanwhile, the Asian market will focus on startups, with more than 1.2 million mt/year of extra propylene production capacity expected to come online in China by H2.
This includes China’s Fujian Meide Petrochemical’s 660,000 mt/year PDH plant in September and Dongguan Juzhengyuan’s 600,000 mt/year PDH plant by the end of H2. The additional capacity could reduce Chinese reliance on imported cargoes and exert pressure on spot price.
“We imported 600,000 mt of propylene feedstock for our two 500,000 mt/year polypropylene plants last year and will reduce the imports by 400,000 mt once our PDH plant is operating at full rate,” said a company source at Fujian Meide Petrochemical.
As for the rest of Southeast Asia, Northeast Asia and South Korea, there will be less turnarounds in H2 compared with the front half of the year, ensuring a relatively stable supply of propylene, especially in the final three months of the year. Three steam crackers in the region with a total propylene capacity of over 1.5 million mt/year were heard to have plans for turnarounds in the current quarter. Chandra Asia, the major player in Indonesia, is expected to shut down its cracker for turnaround by August 1, while Formosa Petrochemical’s No. 2 steam cracker unit will carry out scheduled maintenance by mid-August. Lotte Chemical is scheduled to shut its Daesan cracker by October 14.
Other market participants were keeping a close watch on the Malaysia’s Petronas-Aramco RAPID project, which has experienced delays in the startup of the cracker and refinery. The complex’s RFCC is now scheduled to produce 600,000 mt/year of propylene by the end of Q3, but is only due to produce on-spec propylene in Q4, according to a source with direct knowledge of the matter.
— Lara Berton, Lara.Berton@spglobal.com
— Edited by Keiron Greenhalgh, newsdesk@spglobal.com
July 12, 2019
Bombshell Claim: Scientists Find “Man-made Climate Change Doesn’t Exist In Practice”
A new scientific study could bust wide open deeply flawed fundamental assumptions underlying controversial climate legislation and initiatives such as the Green New Deal, namely, the degree to which ‘climate change’ is driven by natural phenomena vs. man-made issues measured as carbon footprint. Scientists in Finland found “practically no anthropogenic [man-made] climate change” after a series of studies.
“During the last hundred years the temperature increased about 0.1°C because of carbon dioxide. The human contribution was about 0.01°C”, the Finnish researchers bluntly state in one among a series of papers.
This has been collaborated by a team at Kobe University in Japan, which has furthered the Finnish researchers’ theory: “New evidence suggests that high-energy particles from space known as galactic cosmic rays affect the Earth’s climate by increasing cloud cover, causing an ‘umbrella effect’,” the just published study has found, a summary of which has been released in the journal Science Daily. The findings are hugely significant given this ‘umbrella effect’ — an entirely natural occurrence — could be the prime driver of climate warming, and not man-made factors.
The scientists involved in the study are most concerned with the fact that current climate models driving the political side of debate, most notably the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) climate sensitivity scale, fail to incorporate this crucial and potentially central variable of increased cloud cover.
“The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has discussed the impact of cloud cover on climate in their evaluations, but this phenomenon has never been considered in climate predictions due to the insufficient physical understanding of it,” comments Professor Hyodo in Science Daily. “This study provides an opportunity to rethink the impact of clouds on climate. When galactic cosmic rays increase, so do low clouds, and when cosmic rays decrease clouds do as well, so climate warming may be caused by an opposite-umbrella effect.”
In their related paper, aptly titled, “No experimental evidence for the significant anthropogenic [man-made] climate change”, the Finnish scientists find that low cloud cover “practically” controls global temperatures but that “only a small part” of the increased carbon dioxide concentration is anthropogenic, or caused by human activity.
The following is a key bombshell section in one of the studies conducted by Finland’s Turku University team:
We have proven that the GCM-models used in IPCC report AR5 cannot compute correctly the natural component included in the observed global temperature. The reason is that the models fail to derive the influences of low cloud cover fraction on the global temperature. A too small natural component results in a too large portion for the contribution of the greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide. That is why 6 J. KAUPPINEN AND P. MALMI IPCC represents the climate sensitivity more than one order of magnitude larger than our sensitivity 0.24°C. Because the anthropogenic portion in the increased CO2 is less than 10 %, we have practically no anthropogenic climate change. The low clouds control mainly the global temperature.
This raises urgent questions and central contradictions regarding current models which politicians and environmental groups across the globe are using to push radical economic changes on their countries’ populations.
Conclusions from both the Japanese and Finnish studies strongly suggest, for example, that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s “drastic measures to cut carbon emissions” which would ultimately require radical legislation changes to “remake the U.S. economy” would not only potentially bankrupt everyone but simply wouldn’t even work, at least according to the new Finnish research team findings.
To put AOC’s “drastic measures” in perspective — based entirely on the fundamental assumption of the monumental and disastrous impact of human activity on the climate — consider the following conclusions from the Finnish studies:
“During the last hundred years the temperature increased about 0.1°C because of carbon dioxide. The human contribution was about 0.01°C.”
Which leads the scientists to state further:
“Because the anthropogenic portion in the increased carbon dioxide is less than 10 percent, we have practically no anthropogenic climate change,” the researchers concluded.
And the team in Japan has called for a total reevaluation of current climate models, which remain dangerously flawed for dismissing a crucial variable:
This study provides an opportunity to rethink the impact of clouds on climate. When galactic cosmic rays increase, so do low clouds, and when cosmic rays decrease clouds do as well, so climate warming may be caused by an opposite-umbrella effect. The umbrella effect caused by galactic cosmic rays is important when thinking about current global warming as well as the warm period of the medieval era.
Failure to account for this results in the following, according to the one in the series of studies: “The IPCC climate sensitivity is about one order of magnitude too high, because a strong negative feedback of the clouds is missing in climate models.”
“If we pay attention to the fact that only a small part of the increased CO2 concentration is anthropogenic, we have to recognize that the anthropogenic climate change does not exist in practice,” the researchers conclude.
Though we doubt the ideologues currently pushing to radically remake the American economy through what ends up being a $93 trillion proposal (according to one study) — including AOC’s call for a whopping 70% top tax rate — will carefully inquire of this new bombshell scientific confirmation presented in the new research, we at least hope the US scientific community takes heed before it’s too late in the cause of accurate and authentic science that would stave off irreparable economic disaster that would no doubt ripple across the globe, adding to both human and environmental misery.
And “too late” that is, not for some mythical imminent or near-future “global warming Armageddon” as the currently in vogue highly politicized “science” of activists and congress members alike claims.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-11/scientists-finland-japan-man-made-climate-change-doesnt-exist-practice
July 12, 2019
Bombshell Claim: Scientists Find “Man-made Climate Change Doesn’t Exist In Practice”
A new scientific study could bust wide open deeply flawed fundamental assumptions underlying controversial climate legislation and initiatives such as the Green New Deal, namely, the degree to which ‘climate change’ is driven by natural phenomena vs. man-made issues measured as carbon footprint. Scientists in Finland found “practically no anthropogenic [man-made] climate change” after a series of studies.
“During the last hundred years the temperature increased about 0.1°C because of carbon dioxide. The human contribution was about 0.01°C”, the Finnish researchers bluntly state in one among a series of papers.
This has been collaborated by a team at Kobe University in Japan, which has furthered the Finnish researchers’ theory: “New evidence suggests that high-energy particles from space known as galactic cosmic rays affect the Earth’s climate by increasing cloud cover, causing an ‘umbrella effect’,” the just published study has found, a summary of which has been released in the journal Science Daily. The findings are hugely significant given this ‘umbrella effect’ — an entirely natural occurrence — could be the prime driver of climate warming, and not man-made factors.
The scientists involved in the study are most concerned with the fact that current climate models driving the political side of debate, most notably the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) climate sensitivity scale, fail to incorporate this crucial and potentially central variable of increased cloud cover.
“The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has discussed the impact of cloud cover on climate in their evaluations, but this phenomenon has never been considered in climate predictions due to the insufficient physical understanding of it,” comments Professor Hyodo in Science Daily. “This study provides an opportunity to rethink the impact of clouds on climate. When galactic cosmic rays increase, so do low clouds, and when cosmic rays decrease clouds do as well, so climate warming may be caused by an opposite-umbrella effect.”
In their related paper, aptly titled, “No experimental evidence for the significant anthropogenic [man-made] climate change”, the Finnish scientists find that low cloud cover “practically” controls global temperatures but that “only a small part” of the increased carbon dioxide concentration is anthropogenic, or caused by human activity.
The following is a key bombshell section in one of the studies conducted by Finland’s Turku University team:
We have proven that the GCM-models used in IPCC report AR5 cannot compute correctly the natural component included in the observed global temperature. The reason is that the models fail to derive the influences of low cloud cover fraction on the global temperature. A too small natural component results in a too large portion for the contribution of the greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide. That is why 6 J. KAUPPINEN AND P. MALMI IPCC represents the climate sensitivity more than one order of magnitude larger than our sensitivity 0.24°C. Because the anthropogenic portion in the increased CO2 is less than 10 %, we have practically no anthropogenic climate change. The low clouds control mainly the global temperature.
This raises urgent questions and central contradictions regarding current models which politicians and environmental groups across the globe are using to push radical economic changes on their countries’ populations.
Conclusions from both the Japanese and Finnish studies strongly suggest, for example, that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s “drastic measures to cut carbon emissions” which would ultimately require radical legislation changes to “remake the U.S. economy” would not only potentially bankrupt everyone but simply wouldn’t even work, at least according to the new Finnish research team findings.
To put AOC’s “drastic measures” in perspective — based entirely on the fundamental assumption of the monumental and disastrous impact of human activity on the climate — consider the following conclusions from the Finnish studies:
“During the last hundred years the temperature increased about 0.1°C because of carbon dioxide. The human contribution was about 0.01°C.”
Which leads the scientists to state further:
“Because the anthropogenic portion in the increased carbon dioxide is less than 10 percent, we have practically no anthropogenic climate change,” the researchers concluded.
And the team in Japan has called for a total reevaluation of current climate models, which remain dangerously flawed for dismissing a crucial variable:
This study provides an opportunity to rethink the impact of clouds on climate. When galactic cosmic rays increase, so do low clouds, and when cosmic rays decrease clouds do as well, so climate warming may be caused by an opposite-umbrella effect. The umbrella effect caused by galactic cosmic rays is important when thinking about current global warming as well as the warm period of the medieval era.
Failure to account for this results in the following, according to the one in the series of studies: “The IPCC climate sensitivity is about one order of magnitude too high, because a strong negative feedback of the clouds is missing in climate models.”
“If we pay attention to the fact that only a small part of the increased CO2 concentration is anthropogenic, we have to recognize that the anthropogenic climate change does not exist in practice,” the researchers conclude.
Though we doubt the ideologues currently pushing to radically remake the American economy through what ends up being a $93 trillion proposal (according to one study) — including AOC’s call for a whopping 70% top tax rate — will carefully inquire of this new bombshell scientific confirmation presented in the new research, we at least hope the US scientific community takes heed before it’s too late in the cause of accurate and authentic science that would stave off irreparable economic disaster that would no doubt ripple across the globe, adding to both human and environmental misery.
And “too late” that is, not for some mythical imminent or near-future “global warming Armageddon” as the currently in vogue highly politicized “science” of activists and congress members alike claims.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-11/scientists-finland-japan-man-made-climate-change-doesnt-exist-practice
Everchem Updates Archive 
Sign Up for Email Updates
