Epoxy
February 22, 2021
Utilities and Feedstocks Key to Restarts
Some US chem plants could take weeks to restart after winter storm
Author: Al Greenwood
2021/02/22
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Chemical plants on the US Gulf Coast could begin to restart within days or weeks, depending on whether they have access to feedstock and utilities and whether they avoided an unexpected cold shutdown, which cokes furnaces and chunks reactors.
Much will depend on whether companies were able to shut down their operations in a controlled and precautionary way, said Brian Pruett, senior vice president of polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) with CDI, now part of ICIS.
Even then, because such deep freezes are so unusual on the US Gulf Coast, companies may have overlooked some steps, Pruett said. That could complicate restart operations.
Nonetheless, while some plants could take a while to restart, others are coming back online.
CITGO is preparing to restart the east and west plants of its refinery in Corpus Christi, in south Texas, it told state regulators on Monday. Pollution associated with the restart could continue until 4 March.
CITGO had shut down the plant on 15 February because of cold weather, according to sources.
For the most part, a large majority of plants decided to take a controlled, precautionary shutdown, Pruett said. He estimates that 65-75% could restart relatively quickly.
Restarting a plant from a controlled shutdown usually does not take a lot of time, said James Wilson, senior analyst at ICIS.
Pruett said if utilities and feedstock are available, some crackers and polyethylene (PE) plants could begin restart operations within a few days. Refineries could take a couple of days to a week longer because of their size and complexity.
However, Pruett warned that many factors could complicate and prolong restart operations.
The Gulf Coast rarely experiences such cold temperatures, so plant operators do not have experience in dealing with deep freezes.
Plant operators may have failed to properly purge the water in a pump, Pruett said. That pump could suffer damage from the freeze. If there are no parts and no spares immediately available, then the plant will not restart right away. Plants have been known to fly in spare parts from overseas, which will delay restarts.
Wilson added that restarting a plant from a cold shutdown will take longer. Lines need to be properly purged. Pipes could have been damaged if they froze with any liquid inside of them.
Marathon Petroleum told state regulators that it found cracked pipes from the recent freeze at its Galveston Bay refinery in Texas.
For plants that suffered damage, Pruett said it is too early to tell how long they could stay offline. Some companies may decide to start maintenance projects that were planned later in the year. That could further prolong the outages caused by the winter storm.
If the plants escaped damage, they could still take more time to restart because of utility or feedstock shortages, Pruett said.
Some companies have already reported this. Last week, Valero told state regulators that its nitrogen and hydrogen suppliers had lost much of their production capacities.
Some plant restarts will require inspections, which could be delayed because of the coronavirus. Some inspectors may need to take time to attend to their damaged homes.
Additional reporting by Alex Snodgrass
February 22, 2021
EG and Derivatives Update
US EG suppliers mull options with 85% of capacity stricken by winter storm
Author: Antoinette Smith
2021/02/18
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Most US ethylene glycol (EG) capacity is at reduced rates or shut down as a result of a winter storm that has knocked out power for millions of people and business, and threatened water supply.
Nearly 4m tonnes/year of US EG capacity is affected by the storm, according to the ICIS Supply and Demand Database. This represents 85% of total US EG capacity.
The curtailed production led MEG prices in Asia to surge by 11% as that region returned from the Lunar New Year holiday.
The US is a major exporter of MEG to Europe and ships out limited volumes to Asia.
Affected US plants are as follows (as of time of writing):
| Company | Location |
| Eastman | Longview, Texas |
| Formosa | Point Comfort, Texas |
| Indorama | Port Neches and Clear Lake, Texas |
| Lotte | Lake Charles, Louisiana |
| LyondellBasell | Bayport, Texas |
| MEGlobal | Freeport, Texas |
| Sasol | Lake Charles, Louisiana |
Separate force majeure declarations have been made – LyondellBasell announced its force majeure this week, and Formosa had an existing declaration due to feedstock issues – while other suppliers are allocating sales and evaluating options.
MEGlobal is on sales control with regular customers and discussing options now, according to a source familiar with company operations.
“Feedstock suppliers are in question, so no idea when this will resolve,” the source said.
Regarding Sasol’s situation, a company spokesperson said, “No declaration has been made at this point, given we are still assessing the situation.”
Tight supply has been an issue across chemical markets including, related products butanediol (BDO), which can be used instead of DEG to make polyester polyols, and phthalic anhydride (PA), which can be used along with DEG in unsaturated polyester resins (UPRs).
“A lot of supply chains were still trying to recover after impacts from Q4, so this current round of FM is tough to endure,” said a buying source.
STRUGGLING TO REBALANCE
Before the storm, monoethylene and diethylene glycol (MEG, DEG) production had been struggling to catch up from widespread outages in September and October.
Hurricane Laura shut down plants in southwest Louisiana in late August, and planned maintenance idled other plants – in all affecting two thirds of North American production in late summer/early autumn 2020.
Downstream polyethylene terephthalate (PET) production, which had already been running hard to met strong pandemic-related demand, was curtailed by the MEG shortage.
Although all plants had restarted by late October, pent-up as well as current demand consumed all available quantities. Contract customers have been able to obtain needed volumes but spot cargoes have been extremely limited, pushing prices to 2020 shortage levels.
In February MEG spot cargoes had begun to emerge after being sold out for months, though spot DEG was still very hard to find.
Co-product DEG is only about 9% of EG yields, with MEG around 90%. As a result, DEG supply is much more prone to sudden shortages and prolonged periods to rebalance.
Triethylene glycol (TEG) also has been affected, though it represents a very small portion of the market and is nearing the end of its typical winter demand season.
Consumption of MEG has remained strong, with Americas PET production unable to meet demand particularly from the packaging sector. Imports have filled the gaps, with elevated freight costs being passed down to buyers.
DEG demand continues to be healthy, with residential construction in particular driving consumption both in polyurethanes (PUs) in durable goods, as well as in UPRs, which have numerous construction and remodelling end-uses.
MEG is an intermediate in the production of polyester fibres and polyethylene terephthalate (PET) bottle resins, and as an automotive antifreeze.
Applications for DEG include de-icing fluids, surface coatings, UPR and polyester polyols.
Co-product TEG is used in gas delivery pipes as a dehydrating agent to prevent the gas from freezing. It is also used in the oilfield sector to help extract natural gas.
Glycol producers in the US include Dow, Eastman Chemical, Formosa, Indorama Ventures, Lotte Chemical, LyondellBasell, MEGlobal, Sasol and Shell Chemical.
Focus article by Antoinette Smith
February 22, 2021
EG and Derivatives Update
US EG suppliers mull options with 85% of capacity stricken by winter storm
Author: Antoinette Smith
2021/02/18
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Most US ethylene glycol (EG) capacity is at reduced rates or shut down as a result of a winter storm that has knocked out power for millions of people and business, and threatened water supply.
Nearly 4m tonnes/year of US EG capacity is affected by the storm, according to the ICIS Supply and Demand Database. This represents 85% of total US EG capacity.
The curtailed production led MEG prices in Asia to surge by 11% as that region returned from the Lunar New Year holiday.
The US is a major exporter of MEG to Europe and ships out limited volumes to Asia.
Affected US plants are as follows (as of time of writing):
| Company | Location |
| Eastman | Longview, Texas |
| Formosa | Point Comfort, Texas |
| Indorama | Port Neches and Clear Lake, Texas |
| Lotte | Lake Charles, Louisiana |
| LyondellBasell | Bayport, Texas |
| MEGlobal | Freeport, Texas |
| Sasol | Lake Charles, Louisiana |
Separate force majeure declarations have been made – LyondellBasell announced its force majeure this week, and Formosa had an existing declaration due to feedstock issues – while other suppliers are allocating sales and evaluating options.
MEGlobal is on sales control with regular customers and discussing options now, according to a source familiar with company operations.
“Feedstock suppliers are in question, so no idea when this will resolve,” the source said.
Regarding Sasol’s situation, a company spokesperson said, “No declaration has been made at this point, given we are still assessing the situation.”
Tight supply has been an issue across chemical markets including, related products butanediol (BDO), which can be used instead of DEG to make polyester polyols, and phthalic anhydride (PA), which can be used along with DEG in unsaturated polyester resins (UPRs).
“A lot of supply chains were still trying to recover after impacts from Q4, so this current round of FM is tough to endure,” said a buying source.
STRUGGLING TO REBALANCE
Before the storm, monoethylene and diethylene glycol (MEG, DEG) production had been struggling to catch up from widespread outages in September and October.
Hurricane Laura shut down plants in southwest Louisiana in late August, and planned maintenance idled other plants – in all affecting two thirds of North American production in late summer/early autumn 2020.
Downstream polyethylene terephthalate (PET) production, which had already been running hard to met strong pandemic-related demand, was curtailed by the MEG shortage.
Although all plants had restarted by late October, pent-up as well as current demand consumed all available quantities. Contract customers have been able to obtain needed volumes but spot cargoes have been extremely limited, pushing prices to 2020 shortage levels.
In February MEG spot cargoes had begun to emerge after being sold out for months, though spot DEG was still very hard to find.
Co-product DEG is only about 9% of EG yields, with MEG around 90%. As a result, DEG supply is much more prone to sudden shortages and prolonged periods to rebalance.
Triethylene glycol (TEG) also has been affected, though it represents a very small portion of the market and is nearing the end of its typical winter demand season.
Consumption of MEG has remained strong, with Americas PET production unable to meet demand particularly from the packaging sector. Imports have filled the gaps, with elevated freight costs being passed down to buyers.
DEG demand continues to be healthy, with residential construction in particular driving consumption both in polyurethanes (PUs) in durable goods, as well as in UPRs, which have numerous construction and remodelling end-uses.
MEG is an intermediate in the production of polyester fibres and polyethylene terephthalate (PET) bottle resins, and as an automotive antifreeze.
Applications for DEG include de-icing fluids, surface coatings, UPR and polyester polyols.
Co-product TEG is used in gas delivery pipes as a dehydrating agent to prevent the gas from freezing. It is also used in the oilfield sector to help extract natural gas.
Glycol producers in the US include Dow, Eastman Chemical, Formosa, Indorama Ventures, Lotte Chemical, LyondellBasell, MEGlobal, Sasol and Shell Chemical.
Focus article by Antoinette Smith
February 22, 2021
Storm Impact
Winter storm impact may exceed Hurricane Harvey’s but US chemicals earnings to rise
Author: Joseph Chang
2021/02/19
NEW YORK (ICIS)–The severe winter storm and ultra-low temperatures on the US Gulf Coast put a deep freeze on the nation’s petrochemicals sector with multiple crackers and refineries shutting down amid already tight markets.
While it will take weeks for many of the plants to restart, the impact on supply will be felt for months to come with ripple effects across the globe, tightening key markets even further.
Yet as was the case with Hurricane Harvey, the earnings impact on US chemicals producers is likely to be a net positive with higher margins ultimately outweighing the temporary loss of volumes.
As of 19 February, close to 70% of US ethylene capacity is offline because of the winter storm and freezing temperatures, along with over 80% of propylene capacity, including splitters, noted Kim Haberkost, director of olefins at Chemical Data (CDI), which is part of ICIS.
Propylene had been especially tight even before the storm, with spot prices hitting record highs.
Downstream, around 90% of polypropylene (PP) capacity is impacted, while estimates for high density polyethylene (HDPE) are near 80%.
“We will know more this weekend as things are supposed to thaw out, giving producers a chance to evaluate and restart,” said Brian Pruett, senior vice president, PE and PP, at CDI.
“Given the tightness and low inventories prior to the deep freeze, this one might be equivalent to Hurricane Harvey, and maybe even the back-to-back Rita/Katrina hurricanes in 2005,” he added.
“I expect this storm to affect supplies from our industry worse than Hurricane Harvey,” a US PE trader said.
He expects plant disruptions to last around six months amid a shortage of parts needed to repair and replace equipment.
Another source expects PP tightness to last through the first half of the year.
“Covid has already disrupted many different global supply chain components. And given that Covid is a global issue, the combined impact with the US Gulf Coast storm could end up being worse than that of Harvey,” said James Ray, ICIS vice president of consulting – Americas.
About 42% of US base oil refining capacity is confirmed offline with ExxonMobil in Baytown, Texas, and Motiva in Port Arthur, Texas, shut due to weather and HollyFrontier in Tulsa, Oklahoma, and Calumet in Shreveport, Louisiana, shut for maintenance.
“This may be worse than Harvey because all Gulf Coast refineries are impacted,” a base oils source said.
REFINERIES HOLD KEY TO PROPYLENE
How fast refineries can start up will be key in alleviating the extreme shortage in US propylene as they account for around 55% of supply. Propylene inventories started the year at 17-year lows and fell further even before the winter storm.
More than 20 US refineries were shut down or faced production and feedstock issues, according to sources, with many saying there will be weeks of repairs before many can restart.
Already there are reports of widespread equipment damage. The refineries that can restart should be starting the process next week.
Early estimates for refinery outages are 5.5m bbl/day of capacity offline.
“What we don’t know yet is how much damage is done, but the situation with refineries does not bode well for propylene. There is much more upside for pricing in the short term,” said Haberkost.
“The assumption is that some of these units will be down for longer than others because of burst pipes and damaged equipment,” she added.
And then there’s another scenario where above-ground ethylene and propylene pipelines could have leaks or failures, further delaying start-ups, she noted.
“Propylene prices are already so high, but we are projecting increases for February and March. April prices will likely come down or else demand will be driven away,” said Haberkost.
“With what we know today, ethylene prices are forecast to also decline in April, but they could come down as early as March if crackers successfully restart in the next week,” she added.
INTERMEDIATES IMPACT
In intermediates, 100% of US capacity is offline for epichlorohydrin (ECH), propylene oxide (PO), tertiary butyl alcohol (TBA) and toluene di-isocyanate (TDI), while about 85% of EG (ethylene glycol) capacity is impacted, 88% of propylene glycols and 73% of acrylonitrile (ACN).
Plant inspections at certain intermediates units have found multiple cracked pipes that will impact the timing of restarts, sources said.
One EG producer said it expects overall Louisiana chemicals plants to come back online before those in Texas due to fewer power issues.
“A lot of supply chains were still trying to recover after impacts from Q4 so this current round of force majeures is tough to endure,” said a butanediol (BDO) buyer in the polyurethanes sector.
Nylon 6 producer AdvanSix is taking down operating rates and pulling forward planned maintenance to deal with the supply disruptions in raw material cumene, which is also downstream of propylene.
“All North American producers of cumene have declared force majeure… Given the evolving nature of the situation, we have elected to… de-rate our plants and proactively think about how we minimise disruption,” said AdvanSix CEO Erin Kane, on the company’s Q4 earnings conference call on 19 February.
Planned maintenance that would have taken place predominantly in March will be pulled forward to the back half of February, she said.
“It gives us time to assess the situation and gain some clarity on what’s going to happen,” said Kane.
EARNINGS IMPACT
The earnings impact for chemicals companies will be significant, but not necessarily negative looking out through 2021. Volume losses from shutdowns will likely be outweighed later by prolonged tightness of markets, leading to margin gains.
“At this point for the commodity guys, we view it as a potential Q1 earnings negative but pretty bullish for Q2 and delaying the expected return to balanced conditions – more than making up for the volume impact,” said Frank Mitsch, analyst at Fermium Research.
Indeed, US chemicals stocks, particularly those of commodity producers, continued to rally sharply through 19 February. Companies posting notable gains on 19 February included Dow, LyondellBasell, Olin and Trinseo.
| US chemicals stock prices | |||
| 12-Feb | 19-Feb | % Change | |
| Dow | $58.15 | $60.43 | 3.9% |
| LyondellBasell | $96.14 | $100.34 | 4.4% |
| Olin | $28.70 | $29.95 | 4.4% |
| Trinseo | $59.05 | $62.70 | 6.2% |
| Huntsman | $28.52 | $28.89 | 1.3% |
| Eastman | $109.23 | $111.84 | 2.4% |
| Westlake | $87.08 | $87.55 | 0.5% |
| Celanese | $132.73 | $135.36 | 2.0% |
| AdvanSix | $25.15 | $28.52 | 13.4% |
| Source: Yahoo Finance |
“We would also remind investors that this level of shutdowns is similar to what we saw during Hurricane Harvey – a period of strong outperformance for US chemical equities,” said Hassan Ahmed, analyst at Alembic Global Advisors.
“I personally think it will be a Hurricane Harvey-like situation, where the commodity-chemical names will end up benefitting from these outages – the lost earnings from lower volumes will be more than offset by pricing gains. However, specialties may take a hit,” he added.
Stock price gains have been more muted for coatings and specialty chemicals players as they will be exposed to higher raw material cost headwinds. Yet these impacts are likely to be temporary while end market demand should be robust.
“We think the coatings guys will be seeing raw materials inflation and near-term impacted demand as we progress over the next few months, but overall, this is a transitory event for them. That is, the world is not coming to an end as the bad weather is transitory. We believe the fundamental demand continues to be strong across many end markets,” said Mitsch.
RESTART AND RECOVERY ESTIMATES VARY
Estimates of restarts vary widely. A clearer picture should emerge by early next week as companies assess potential damage to equipment as the US Gulf Coast emerges from the deep freeze.
One olefins producer noted the best case scenario for restart is about a week and the worst case is several weeks, depending on how controlled the shutdowns were.
Some aromatics producers expect to restart some facilities in the next few days. Barring any complications, production could begin in the next 10-14 days, they noted.
Chlor-vinyls producers, being large consumers of electricity, are now providing their cogeneration to the public grid.
Chlor-vinyls and polyolefins producer Formosa Plastics USA, whose sites at Point Comfort, Texas and Baton Rouge, Louisiana continue to be shut down or operating at reduced capacity, said on 18 February that it is prioritising the restart of its utility plans to support power needs for local communities.
“Any power and steam production from natural gas will be directed toward electrical support for the community and the safety of our complex until the current weather emergency subsides,” said Formosa Plastics USA in a statement.
While Hurricanes typically take out a narrow swathe of production along the coast, the deep freeze has disrupted operations from Corpus Christi, Texas to Pascagoula, Mississippi.
To conduct repairs, marshal feedstocks, including air, nitrogen and other inputs and to balance the production chain, the most optimistic timeline for recovery is mid-March. More typical estimates are mid-April and later, chlor-vinyls sources said.
“People will be scrambling for the next four to six weeks to get things back to some semblance of normal,” a chemicals distributor said. https://dataviz.icis.com/views/PlantsimpactedbycoldweatherinUS/overallgraphic?:embed=y&:showVizHome=no&:host_url=https%3A%2F%2Fdataviz.icis.com%2F&:embed_code_version=3&:tabs=no&:toolbar=yes&:display_spinner=no&:showAppBanner=false&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link&:loadOrderID=0
Additional reporting by Zachary Moore, Michael Sims, Bill Bowen, Antoinette Smith, Amanda Hay, Deniz Koray, Alex Snodgrass and Al Greenwood
Insight article by Joseph Chang
February 22, 2021
Storm Impact
Winter storm impact may exceed Hurricane Harvey’s but US chemicals earnings to rise
Author: Joseph Chang
2021/02/19
NEW YORK (ICIS)–The severe winter storm and ultra-low temperatures on the US Gulf Coast put a deep freeze on the nation’s petrochemicals sector with multiple crackers and refineries shutting down amid already tight markets.
While it will take weeks for many of the plants to restart, the impact on supply will be felt for months to come with ripple effects across the globe, tightening key markets even further.
Yet as was the case with Hurricane Harvey, the earnings impact on US chemicals producers is likely to be a net positive with higher margins ultimately outweighing the temporary loss of volumes.
As of 19 February, close to 70% of US ethylene capacity is offline because of the winter storm and freezing temperatures, along with over 80% of propylene capacity, including splitters, noted Kim Haberkost, director of olefins at Chemical Data (CDI), which is part of ICIS.
Propylene had been especially tight even before the storm, with spot prices hitting record highs.
Downstream, around 90% of polypropylene (PP) capacity is impacted, while estimates for high density polyethylene (HDPE) are near 80%.
“We will know more this weekend as things are supposed to thaw out, giving producers a chance to evaluate and restart,” said Brian Pruett, senior vice president, PE and PP, at CDI.
“Given the tightness and low inventories prior to the deep freeze, this one might be equivalent to Hurricane Harvey, and maybe even the back-to-back Rita/Katrina hurricanes in 2005,” he added.
“I expect this storm to affect supplies from our industry worse than Hurricane Harvey,” a US PE trader said.
He expects plant disruptions to last around six months amid a shortage of parts needed to repair and replace equipment.
Another source expects PP tightness to last through the first half of the year.
“Covid has already disrupted many different global supply chain components. And given that Covid is a global issue, the combined impact with the US Gulf Coast storm could end up being worse than that of Harvey,” said James Ray, ICIS vice president of consulting – Americas.
About 42% of US base oil refining capacity is confirmed offline with ExxonMobil in Baytown, Texas, and Motiva in Port Arthur, Texas, shut due to weather and HollyFrontier in Tulsa, Oklahoma, and Calumet in Shreveport, Louisiana, shut for maintenance.
“This may be worse than Harvey because all Gulf Coast refineries are impacted,” a base oils source said.
REFINERIES HOLD KEY TO PROPYLENE
How fast refineries can start up will be key in alleviating the extreme shortage in US propylene as they account for around 55% of supply. Propylene inventories started the year at 17-year lows and fell further even before the winter storm.
More than 20 US refineries were shut down or faced production and feedstock issues, according to sources, with many saying there will be weeks of repairs before many can restart.
Already there are reports of widespread equipment damage. The refineries that can restart should be starting the process next week.
Early estimates for refinery outages are 5.5m bbl/day of capacity offline.
“What we don’t know yet is how much damage is done, but the situation with refineries does not bode well for propylene. There is much more upside for pricing in the short term,” said Haberkost.
“The assumption is that some of these units will be down for longer than others because of burst pipes and damaged equipment,” she added.
And then there’s another scenario where above-ground ethylene and propylene pipelines could have leaks or failures, further delaying start-ups, she noted.
“Propylene prices are already so high, but we are projecting increases for February and March. April prices will likely come down or else demand will be driven away,” said Haberkost.
“With what we know today, ethylene prices are forecast to also decline in April, but they could come down as early as March if crackers successfully restart in the next week,” she added.
INTERMEDIATES IMPACT
In intermediates, 100% of US capacity is offline for epichlorohydrin (ECH), propylene oxide (PO), tertiary butyl alcohol (TBA) and toluene di-isocyanate (TDI), while about 85% of EG (ethylene glycol) capacity is impacted, 88% of propylene glycols and 73% of acrylonitrile (ACN).
Plant inspections at certain intermediates units have found multiple cracked pipes that will impact the timing of restarts, sources said.
One EG producer said it expects overall Louisiana chemicals plants to come back online before those in Texas due to fewer power issues.
“A lot of supply chains were still trying to recover after impacts from Q4 so this current round of force majeures is tough to endure,” said a butanediol (BDO) buyer in the polyurethanes sector.
Nylon 6 producer AdvanSix is taking down operating rates and pulling forward planned maintenance to deal with the supply disruptions in raw material cumene, which is also downstream of propylene.
“All North American producers of cumene have declared force majeure… Given the evolving nature of the situation, we have elected to… de-rate our plants and proactively think about how we minimise disruption,” said AdvanSix CEO Erin Kane, on the company’s Q4 earnings conference call on 19 February.
Planned maintenance that would have taken place predominantly in March will be pulled forward to the back half of February, she said.
“It gives us time to assess the situation and gain some clarity on what’s going to happen,” said Kane.
EARNINGS IMPACT
The earnings impact for chemicals companies will be significant, but not necessarily negative looking out through 2021. Volume losses from shutdowns will likely be outweighed later by prolonged tightness of markets, leading to margin gains.
“At this point for the commodity guys, we view it as a potential Q1 earnings negative but pretty bullish for Q2 and delaying the expected return to balanced conditions – more than making up for the volume impact,” said Frank Mitsch, analyst at Fermium Research.
Indeed, US chemicals stocks, particularly those of commodity producers, continued to rally sharply through 19 February. Companies posting notable gains on 19 February included Dow, LyondellBasell, Olin and Trinseo.
| US chemicals stock prices | |||
| 12-Feb | 19-Feb | % Change | |
| Dow | $58.15 | $60.43 | 3.9% |
| LyondellBasell | $96.14 | $100.34 | 4.4% |
| Olin | $28.70 | $29.95 | 4.4% |
| Trinseo | $59.05 | $62.70 | 6.2% |
| Huntsman | $28.52 | $28.89 | 1.3% |
| Eastman | $109.23 | $111.84 | 2.4% |
| Westlake | $87.08 | $87.55 | 0.5% |
| Celanese | $132.73 | $135.36 | 2.0% |
| AdvanSix | $25.15 | $28.52 | 13.4% |
| Source: Yahoo Finance |
“We would also remind investors that this level of shutdowns is similar to what we saw during Hurricane Harvey – a period of strong outperformance for US chemical equities,” said Hassan Ahmed, analyst at Alembic Global Advisors.
“I personally think it will be a Hurricane Harvey-like situation, where the commodity-chemical names will end up benefitting from these outages – the lost earnings from lower volumes will be more than offset by pricing gains. However, specialties may take a hit,” he added.
Stock price gains have been more muted for coatings and specialty chemicals players as they will be exposed to higher raw material cost headwinds. Yet these impacts are likely to be temporary while end market demand should be robust.
“We think the coatings guys will be seeing raw materials inflation and near-term impacted demand as we progress over the next few months, but overall, this is a transitory event for them. That is, the world is not coming to an end as the bad weather is transitory. We believe the fundamental demand continues to be strong across many end markets,” said Mitsch.
RESTART AND RECOVERY ESTIMATES VARY
Estimates of restarts vary widely. A clearer picture should emerge by early next week as companies assess potential damage to equipment as the US Gulf Coast emerges from the deep freeze.
One olefins producer noted the best case scenario for restart is about a week and the worst case is several weeks, depending on how controlled the shutdowns were.
Some aromatics producers expect to restart some facilities in the next few days. Barring any complications, production could begin in the next 10-14 days, they noted.
Chlor-vinyls producers, being large consumers of electricity, are now providing their cogeneration to the public grid.
Chlor-vinyls and polyolefins producer Formosa Plastics USA, whose sites at Point Comfort, Texas and Baton Rouge, Louisiana continue to be shut down or operating at reduced capacity, said on 18 February that it is prioritising the restart of its utility plans to support power needs for local communities.
“Any power and steam production from natural gas will be directed toward electrical support for the community and the safety of our complex until the current weather emergency subsides,” said Formosa Plastics USA in a statement.
While Hurricanes typically take out a narrow swathe of production along the coast, the deep freeze has disrupted operations from Corpus Christi, Texas to Pascagoula, Mississippi.
To conduct repairs, marshal feedstocks, including air, nitrogen and other inputs and to balance the production chain, the most optimistic timeline for recovery is mid-March. More typical estimates are mid-April and later, chlor-vinyls sources said.
“People will be scrambling for the next four to six weeks to get things back to some semblance of normal,” a chemicals distributor said. https://dataviz.icis.com/views/PlantsimpactedbycoldweatherinUS/overallgraphic?:embed=y&:showVizHome=no&:host_url=https%3A%2F%2Fdataviz.icis.com%2F&:embed_code_version=3&:tabs=no&:toolbar=yes&:display_spinner=no&:showAppBanner=false&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link&:loadOrderID=0
Additional reporting by Zachary Moore, Michael Sims, Bill Bowen, Antoinette Smith, Amanda Hay, Deniz Koray, Alex Snodgrass and Al Greenwood
Insight article by Joseph Chang
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