The Propane Nightmare Before Christmas: Tight Fundamentals Will Dampen Propylene Margins

The notion that global supply chains have been severely impacted by COVID is not new, as consumers have been dealing with scarcity of home appliances, automobiles, and other goods. But even within this context of supply chain challenges, the potential price spikes pertaining to propane/propylene/polypropylene could prove to be unprecedented and could severely impact margins across the supply chain.

One main culprit behind the expected price increase is the current US stock levels, which are at their lowest in five years, because of lower-than-usual supply coupled with additional global demand. Additionally, the low stock levels are occurring at the same time that the market is entering the highest seasonal demand period, which typically spans between September to February of each year.

It is also important to consider what has happened from a global perspective, including the impact of COVID-19 on the propane markets. Worldwide refining activity started increasing towards March of this year once the jitters associated with the second wave of COVID-19 settled down with the onset of vaccinations. Consequently, global refinery production of LPG increased significantly towards June 2021. However, with the impact of the Delta variant, the rebound in refining activity stagnated, and has been further affected by normal maintenance schedules starting in August and September. The combination has resulted in a decline in refinery-provided propane.

With regards to demand, during the pandemic US propane demand actually increased. There was also significant seasonal withdrawal during the winter of 2020/2021 because of the unusual cold weather that affected not only the northern part of the US, but also the southern part of the US, reaching all the way down to the Gulf Coast. Demand growth is expected to remain strong through the rest of the year and through 2022 (see Global NGLs).

An additional impact on the propane balance was the result of elevated US propane exports experienced during the 2020/2021 winter when exports to Asia were especially robust because of the colder-than-usual winter.

All these elements combined are poised to create a challenging environment for propylene producers, who will struggle with high prices and propane availability.

https://stratasadvisors.com/insights/2021/0930201-propane_propylene-insight

October 1, 2021

PO in China

SunSirs: Propylene Oxide Prices Rose Slightly in September

http://www.chemnet.com Sep 30,2021 SunSirs

　　Price trend

　　According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, as of September 29, the average price of propylene oxide from enterprises was 17,333.33 RMB/ton, an increase of 8.11% compared with the price on September 1 (the reference price of propylene oxide was 16,033.33 RMB/ton). The price rose 17.12% in a three-month cycle.

　　Analysis review

　　The propylene oxide market rose slightly in September. In early September, as the inventory dropped to a low level, the factory offered a strong market offer, and the downstream new orders were average, downstream followed up passively and the price rose slightly. In mid-September, under the influence of the “dual control” policy, manufacturers stopped or reduced the load in varying degrees, the overall market supply had shrunk, the transaction had improved, and the price had risen again. In late September, some installations were operating at low load, and the market supply was still tight. The tight balance between supply and demand drove the market upward. As the end of the month, the production restriction policy affected propylene oxide and the downstream start-up load. The market was relatively stable, the overall trading atmosphere was average, and the market was running steadily.

　　Upstream propylene, according to data from SunSirs’bulk list, as of September 28, the reference price of propylene was 7,965.67 RMB/ton, which was a 3.6% increase compared with the price on September 1 (7,688.55 RMB/ton).

　　Downstream propylene glycol, according to the monitoring data of SunSirs, as of September 28, the reference price of propylene glycol was 21,100.00 RMB/ton, an increase of 23.63% compared with the price on September 1 (17,066.67 RMB/ton); Downstream soft foam polyether, the mainstream price of soft foam polyether in Shandong on September 29 was around 17,300-17,700 RMB/ton.

　　Market outlook

　　The propylene oxide analysts of SunSirs believe that, on the whole, the current cost impact is limited, the downstream polyether new orders are generally traded, and the overall market atmosphere is sluggish. It is expected that in the short term, the propylene oxide market may be mainly wait-and-see. More attention needs to be paid to changes in supply and demand.

http://news.chemnet.com/Chemical-News/detail-2463544.html

October 1, 2021

PO in China

SunSirs: Propylene Oxide Prices Rose Slightly in September

http://www.chemnet.com Sep 30,2021 SunSirs

　　Price trend

　　According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, as of September 29, the average price of propylene oxide from enterprises was 17,333.33 RMB/ton, an increase of 8.11% compared with the price on September 1 (the reference price of propylene oxide was 16,033.33 RMB/ton). The price rose 17.12% in a three-month cycle.

　　Analysis review

　　The propylene oxide market rose slightly in September. In early September, as the inventory dropped to a low level, the factory offered a strong market offer, and the downstream new orders were average, downstream followed up passively and the price rose slightly. In mid-September, under the influence of the “dual control” policy, manufacturers stopped or reduced the load in varying degrees, the overall market supply had shrunk, the transaction had improved, and the price had risen again. In late September, some installations were operating at low load, and the market supply was still tight. The tight balance between supply and demand drove the market upward. As the end of the month, the production restriction policy affected propylene oxide and the downstream start-up load. The market was relatively stable, the overall trading atmosphere was average, and the market was running steadily.

　　Upstream propylene, according to data from SunSirs’bulk list, as of September 28, the reference price of propylene was 7,965.67 RMB/ton, which was a 3.6% increase compared with the price on September 1 (7,688.55 RMB/ton).

　　Downstream propylene glycol, according to the monitoring data of SunSirs, as of September 28, the reference price of propylene glycol was 21,100.00 RMB/ton, an increase of 23.63% compared with the price on September 1 (17,066.67 RMB/ton); Downstream soft foam polyether, the mainstream price of soft foam polyether in Shandong on September 29 was around 17,300-17,700 RMB/ton.

　　Market outlook

　　The propylene oxide analysts of SunSirs believe that, on the whole, the current cost impact is limited, the downstream polyether new orders are generally traded, and the overall market atmosphere is sluggish. It is expected that in the short term, the propylene oxide market may be mainly wait-and-see. More attention needs to be paid to changes in supply and demand.

http://news.chemnet.com/Chemical-News/detail-2463544.html

October 1, 2021

Propylene Falls 3c/lb in September