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Everchem Updates
VOLUME XXI
September 14, 2023
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March 15, 2021
Tender volumes flat week-over-week at very high level
Seth HolmSaturday, March 13, 20210 753 3 minutes read
The freight markets have reentered “chaos is business as usual” territory. There has been very little change to any of the major indices this week as the Outbound Tender Volume and Reject Indices have both moved horizontally for two weeks now. Since the winter blizzard disruption, tender volumes took a leg up and have remained elevated since. The natural peak in tender volumes (and rejections) seems to be in place, but the spring freight season is upon us.
Year-over-year comparisons are becoming increasingly more difficult given the 30% surge in volumes on the back of consumer panic buying and hoarding at the beginning of the pandemic. For this reason, two-year comparisons glean more meaningful insights throughout the rest of 1H21.
After adjusting for rejected tenders, OTVI is up ~25% over 2019 and up ~13% over last year. The lasting impact of the winter storms is being felt in the reefer market. The power outages meant many goods were left without a way to manage their environment, putting many perishables and other goods at risk for spoilage or damage. Demand for reefer trailers exploded in Texas, with the Reefer Outbound Tender Volume Index for the state increasing over 50% in a 10-day stretch, potentially leaving a vacuum in other parts of the country.
Over the past three months, growth in outbound reefer tender volumes (ROTVI.USA) has outpaced dry van growth, with the disparity accelerating during the storms. As a result of the imbalance, major produce regions like California, North Carolina and Florida have all seen severe reefer capacity shortages over the past two weeks.
The significant produce harvests typically don’t occur until April through June, so it’s likely that when domestic produce begins to move in earnest, it could set up for a historic year for reefer carriers.
While it is hard to see how freight demand gets much better from here, it appears distinctly possible. President Biden signed the newest round of fiscal stimulus this week and $1,400 checks will be hitting American pockets as early as next week. Inventories remain decimated, the housing market is on fire, the industrial economy is recovering and the reopening of the economy is inching closer with every passing day. The vaccination efforts are extremely promising — 1-in-4 adult Americans has received at least one dose.
On a positive note, eight of the 15 major freight markets that we monitor as a broad, representative benchmark were positive on a week-over-week basis. This ratio was flat compared to last week and weakened modestly from the stronger levels it has become accustomed to in recent months as the freight market rallies. The markets with the largest gains this week in OTVI.USA were Fresno, California (14.83%), Seattle (9.06%), and Miami (8.24%). The markets with the largest declines this week in OTVI.USA were Laredo, Texas (-4.79%), Newark, New Jersey (-4.45%) and Memphis, Tennessee (-3.54%).
Tender rejections hover near peak
The Outbound Tender Reject Index (OTRI) declined marginally this week to 26.5%. OTRI has ranged up toward 30% four times over the past year, but never quite touched the handle. The natural ceiling for tender rejections appears to be near that level, and this is evidenced by surging spot rates.
From a geographic standpoint, there is simply not much to report this week. Markets around population centers on the West Coast and in the Northeast experienced very little change in tender rejections this week, while southern regions saw tightening capacity.
The market is unlikely to see any material loosening of capacity through the middle of the year. There could be some downward pressure on tender rejections as routing guides are recalibrated and contract rates are revised upward toward spot, but capacity will remain difficult to source.
For more information on Passport Research, please contact sholm@freightwaves.com.
March 15, 2021
Tender volumes flat week-over-week at very high level
Seth HolmSaturday, March 13, 20210 753 3 minutes read
The freight markets have reentered “chaos is business as usual” territory. There has been very little change to any of the major indices this week as the Outbound Tender Volume and Reject Indices have both moved horizontally for two weeks now. Since the winter blizzard disruption, tender volumes took a leg up and have remained elevated since. The natural peak in tender volumes (and rejections) seems to be in place, but the spring freight season is upon us.
Year-over-year comparisons are becoming increasingly more difficult given the 30% surge in volumes on the back of consumer panic buying and hoarding at the beginning of the pandemic. For this reason, two-year comparisons glean more meaningful insights throughout the rest of 1H21.
After adjusting for rejected tenders, OTVI is up ~25% over 2019 and up ~13% over last year. The lasting impact of the winter storms is being felt in the reefer market. The power outages meant many goods were left without a way to manage their environment, putting many perishables and other goods at risk for spoilage or damage. Demand for reefer trailers exploded in Texas, with the Reefer Outbound Tender Volume Index for the state increasing over 50% in a 10-day stretch, potentially leaving a vacuum in other parts of the country.
Over the past three months, growth in outbound reefer tender volumes (ROTVI.USA) has outpaced dry van growth, with the disparity accelerating during the storms. As a result of the imbalance, major produce regions like California, North Carolina and Florida have all seen severe reefer capacity shortages over the past two weeks.
The significant produce harvests typically don’t occur until April through June, so it’s likely that when domestic produce begins to move in earnest, it could set up for a historic year for reefer carriers.
While it is hard to see how freight demand gets much better from here, it appears distinctly possible. President Biden signed the newest round of fiscal stimulus this week and $1,400 checks will be hitting American pockets as early as next week. Inventories remain decimated, the housing market is on fire, the industrial economy is recovering and the reopening of the economy is inching closer with every passing day. The vaccination efforts are extremely promising — 1-in-4 adult Americans has received at least one dose.
On a positive note, eight of the 15 major freight markets that we monitor as a broad, representative benchmark were positive on a week-over-week basis. This ratio was flat compared to last week and weakened modestly from the stronger levels it has become accustomed to in recent months as the freight market rallies. The markets with the largest gains this week in OTVI.USA were Fresno, California (14.83%), Seattle (9.06%), and Miami (8.24%). The markets with the largest declines this week in OTVI.USA were Laredo, Texas (-4.79%), Newark, New Jersey (-4.45%) and Memphis, Tennessee (-3.54%).
Tender rejections hover near peak
The Outbound Tender Reject Index (OTRI) declined marginally this week to 26.5%. OTRI has ranged up toward 30% four times over the past year, but never quite touched the handle. The natural ceiling for tender rejections appears to be near that level, and this is evidenced by surging spot rates.
From a geographic standpoint, there is simply not much to report this week. Markets around population centers on the West Coast and in the Northeast experienced very little change in tender rejections this week, while southern regions saw tightening capacity.
The market is unlikely to see any material loosening of capacity through the middle of the year. There could be some downward pressure on tender rejections as routing guides are recalibrated and contract rates are revised upward toward spot, but capacity will remain difficult to source.
For more information on Passport Research, please contact sholm@freightwaves.com.
March 15, 2021
EU chemicals need stable, strong regulatory framework to grow – execs
Author: Morgan Condon
2021/03/12
LONDON (ICIS)–A firmer connection is needed between the EU Green Deal and the bloc’s industrial strategy to support the competitiveness of its chemicals industry, according to executives in the European chemicals industry.
Rene Van Sloten, industrial policy advisor at Europe-wide trade group Cefic, emphasised the importance of this link to meet the EU’s net-zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, 2050 environmental targets.
“There are opportunities [for chemicals in the Green Deal] but in order for European industry to benefit from this it needs to develop solutions for all these problems, not importing solutions from other parts of the world,” said Van Sloten.
He estimated that the chemicals industry would require annual investments between €17-27bn, depending on the level of ambition of making sustainable production a reality.
“We need to keep Europe attractive as investment location. If it is not attractive, other regions will compete for investment, so we need to make sure framework is there,” he said.
Dennis Kredler, director for EU Affairs at US chemicals major Dow, which runs large production facilities in the region, said that the EU’s chemicals industry has the potential to become a “game changer”.
He added that, however, any innovation in the industry would depend on public and private funding, something he considered to be challenging due to what he described as unstable regulatory landscape.
“Investment needs as much predictability as possible. You could argue that there is a lot of predictability, many companies in this industry are putting investment plans in place to achieve these outcomes,” said Kredler.
“The challenge is that practically our entire regulatory framework [is currently] under review.”
The EU has stated it aims to renew and upgrade its Reach chemicals regulatory framework, already the strictest in the world; chemicals producers often complain its implementation adds red-tape and a financial burden on their operations.
With issues as diverse yet important as climate change, plant permits, chemicals management, and the circular economy all vying for attention, a unified industrial strategy would help connect the dots and provide a clear path forwards.
Van Sloten and Kredler were speaking earlier this week at Cefic-organised event titled ‘Beyond European economic recovery: How can industry support Europe’s competitive sustainability?’
March 15, 2021
EU chemicals need stable, strong regulatory framework to grow – execs
Author: Morgan Condon
2021/03/12
LONDON (ICIS)–A firmer connection is needed between the EU Green Deal and the bloc’s industrial strategy to support the competitiveness of its chemicals industry, according to executives in the European chemicals industry.
Rene Van Sloten, industrial policy advisor at Europe-wide trade group Cefic, emphasised the importance of this link to meet the EU’s net-zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, 2050 environmental targets.
“There are opportunities [for chemicals in the Green Deal] but in order for European industry to benefit from this it needs to develop solutions for all these problems, not importing solutions from other parts of the world,” said Van Sloten.
He estimated that the chemicals industry would require annual investments between €17-27bn, depending on the level of ambition of making sustainable production a reality.
“We need to keep Europe attractive as investment location. If it is not attractive, other regions will compete for investment, so we need to make sure framework is there,” he said.
Dennis Kredler, director for EU Affairs at US chemicals major Dow, which runs large production facilities in the region, said that the EU’s chemicals industry has the potential to become a “game changer”.
He added that, however, any innovation in the industry would depend on public and private funding, something he considered to be challenging due to what he described as unstable regulatory landscape.
“Investment needs as much predictability as possible. You could argue that there is a lot of predictability, many companies in this industry are putting investment plans in place to achieve these outcomes,” said Kredler.
“The challenge is that practically our entire regulatory framework [is currently] under review.”
The EU has stated it aims to renew and upgrade its Reach chemicals regulatory framework, already the strictest in the world; chemicals producers often complain its implementation adds red-tape and a financial burden on their operations.
With issues as diverse yet important as climate change, plant permits, chemicals management, and the circular economy all vying for attention, a unified industrial strategy would help connect the dots and provide a clear path forwards.
Van Sloten and Kredler were speaking earlier this week at Cefic-organised event titled ‘Beyond European economic recovery: How can industry support Europe’s competitive sustainability?’
March 12, 2021
Furniture industry ‘decimated’ by foam shortage after Texas storm, NC manufacturers say
A February storm that pummeled Texas and Louisiana led to a shortage of foam used to pad the arms and backs of furniture. That shortage is being felt in manufacturing plants in North Carolina.
Roy Calcagne, the CEO for Craftmaster in Hickory offered a succinct assessment of the situation: “It’s terrible.”
The severe winter storm knocked out foam manufacturing plants for days. Among those plants were producers of the two chemicals required to make flexible foam used in upholstered furniture, Calcagne said.
The chemical polyol is made in several manufacturing facilities across the U.S., but the majority are located around the Gulf of Mexico, according to EverChem Specialty Chemicals, a chemical marketing and sales company and one of Calcagne’s sources of information on the situation.
The second chemical, toluene diisocyanate (TDI), is made in the U.S. at only two plants — one in Texas and one in Louisiana — according to EverChem. Both were hit by the storm.
“Because of the ice storms and power outages, these companies were slow to come back online,” Calcagne said.
Foam manufacturers, which use the chemicals to create foam for furniture manufacturers, don’t keep a large supply of the chemicals on hand, according to EverChem. With the chemicals rolling out slowly from the source, foam manufacturers are limited in their production. That means furniture companies are receiving about half of what they normally get, Calcagne said.
The shortage affects foam and furniture makers across the United States, Calcagne said.
“It’s pretty much decimated our industry,” he said.
With no foam to fill furniture, Craftmaster was forced to cut production to three days a week, Calcagne said. The company chose to pay workers for an extra day to help them get by.
Century Furniture in Hickory is also feeling the effects. Since early March, production hours in some departments have been cut by a half day or a full day each week. CEO Alex Shuford said he expects more cuts in late March and April.
“It’s a pretty bad situation,” Shuford said. “It looks like shortages are going to last for a while, and it’s definitely going to impact almost all the factories in the upholstery industry around here in their ability to operate.”
Shuford expects Century’s production to be down 30 to 40% in March and for that slowdown to last into April. The foam allocations Century is getting have slowly gotten smaller since foam was first limited in early March, Shuford said.
Shuford said he expects the shortage to add two weeks to Century’s production time. “The situation is far from stable and so our predictions are changing weekly,” Shuford said.
Calcagne said the foam shortage comes on top of growing orders. Business has boomed since late 2020 after a dip during the initial months of the COVID-19 pandemic. Craftmaster saw 70% growth in its business from June to March, Calcagne said. Even before the decrease in foam supply, they couldn’t keep up with the orders.
He added that the slowdown, “puts us further behind with our customers.”
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