The Urethane Blog
August 3, 2020
U.S. Manufacturing Activity Expands to 18-Month High
U.S. manufacturing activity in July expanded to its highest level in nearly 18 months as orders and production rose despite a resurgence in global Covid-19 cases. The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index, the PMI, increased by 1.6 percent in July to 54.2. Any reading above 50 indicates expansion.
New orders reached 61.5 percent, up 5.1 percent from June. Production registered 62.1, an increase 4.8 percent. Although those indexes were coming off a relatively low base in June, they were stronger than expected in July.
“We saw factories reopen in May, and I think we’ve figured out how to deal with the Covid outbreak,” said Tim Fiore, chair of the ISM’s manufacturing survey committee. “At first, you’d have a positive test; you’d have to shut down and clean, and then reopen,” he explained. “That isn’t happening now.”
Employment, however, is well below 50 at 44.3 percent, a 2.2 percent uptick from June. About 35 percent of U.S. manufacturing companies reported they were trimming headcount while an equal number said they were adding employees. “That’s a pretty good balance, considering companies do see attrition and many have no-hire policies,” Fiore said.
The computer and electronics sector did not perform as well in July as in prior months, the ISM reports, but manufacturers remain positive for the rest of the year. “The manufacturing outlook has improved greatly since June, as business has resumed at nearly 100 percent,” said one tech executive. “We have implemented a number of safeguards that are costing extra money, but we are running.” Overall, July’s survey recorded two positive comments for every one cautious opinion.
July’s performance rested largely on demand, which was positive across the board. Both imports and exports moved into expansion territory from contraction. Customers’ inventories remained at a level considered a positive for future production, and order backlog returned to expansion for the first time in five months.
Consumption (measured by the production and employment indexes) contributed positively (a combined 7-percentage point increase) to the PMI calculation, with industries continuing to expand output after May’s return-to-work actions.
Inputs — expressed as supplier deliveries, inventories and imports — weakened for the third straight month, due to supplier delivery issues abating and import levels re-entering expansion. Inventory levels contracted due to strong production output, supplier delivery difficulties and inventory minimization. Inputs contributed negatively (a combined 4.6-percentage point decrease) to the PMI calculation but were more than offset by the demand and consumption improvement, as was the case in June. Prices remained in expansion, supporting a positive outlook.
Several major U.S. industries continue to struggle in the global economy. An executive in the petroleum sector said uncertainty “regarding our industry and business has not improved. We are developing the 2021 budget around multiple scenarios.” In transportation equipment, one manager reported business down almost 70 percent and the company expects to lay off 30 percent of its workforce until September or October.
However, the chemical products sector grew in July, and the ISM expects U.S manufacturing expansion to continue through August and possibly through the end of the year. The fall portends a lot of disruptive geopolitical activity, Fiore pointed out. “There’s concern over the virus, and of course the election. Trade issues will continue. In fact, trade issues will resurface as the WTO will likely rule in favor of Airbus, and we’ll see the U.S. retaliate.”
In 2004 the U.S. lodged a WTO case against the EU for its member state support to Airbus. In 2011 the WTO found the EU illegally funneled money to Airbus and issued a similar ruling — prompted by an EU suit — against the U.S. and Boeing in 2012. The dispute has continued and in 2019 the WTO authorized the U.S. to retaliate with tariffs against $7.5 billion worth of EU exports. Due to a timing lag, the WTO won’t issue a retaliation award in the EU’s complaint about Boeing until sometime this fall.
“Nobody is investing,” Fiore added, “and China will remain a long-lasting issue even when the virus is gone.”
The U.S. most recently has tightened semiconductor-equipment exports to China and continues to ban U.S. tech sales to Chinese network giant Huawei.
August 3, 2020
U.S. Manufacturing Activity Expands to 18-Month High
U.S. manufacturing activity in July expanded to its highest level in nearly 18 months as orders and production rose despite a resurgence in global Covid-19 cases. The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index, the PMI, increased by 1.6 percent in July to 54.2. Any reading above 50 indicates expansion.
New orders reached 61.5 percent, up 5.1 percent from June. Production registered 62.1, an increase 4.8 percent. Although those indexes were coming off a relatively low base in June, they were stronger than expected in July.
“We saw factories reopen in May, and I think we’ve figured out how to deal with the Covid outbreak,” said Tim Fiore, chair of the ISM’s manufacturing survey committee. “At first, you’d have a positive test; you’d have to shut down and clean, and then reopen,” he explained. “That isn’t happening now.”
Employment, however, is well below 50 at 44.3 percent, a 2.2 percent uptick from June. About 35 percent of U.S. manufacturing companies reported they were trimming headcount while an equal number said they were adding employees. “That’s a pretty good balance, considering companies do see attrition and many have no-hire policies,” Fiore said.
The computer and electronics sector did not perform as well in July as in prior months, the ISM reports, but manufacturers remain positive for the rest of the year. “The manufacturing outlook has improved greatly since June, as business has resumed at nearly 100 percent,” said one tech executive. “We have implemented a number of safeguards that are costing extra money, but we are running.” Overall, July’s survey recorded two positive comments for every one cautious opinion.
July’s performance rested largely on demand, which was positive across the board. Both imports and exports moved into expansion territory from contraction. Customers’ inventories remained at a level considered a positive for future production, and order backlog returned to expansion for the first time in five months.
Consumption (measured by the production and employment indexes) contributed positively (a combined 7-percentage point increase) to the PMI calculation, with industries continuing to expand output after May’s return-to-work actions.
Inputs — expressed as supplier deliveries, inventories and imports — weakened for the third straight month, due to supplier delivery issues abating and import levels re-entering expansion. Inventory levels contracted due to strong production output, supplier delivery difficulties and inventory minimization. Inputs contributed negatively (a combined 4.6-percentage point decrease) to the PMI calculation but were more than offset by the demand and consumption improvement, as was the case in June. Prices remained in expansion, supporting a positive outlook.
Several major U.S. industries continue to struggle in the global economy. An executive in the petroleum sector said uncertainty “regarding our industry and business has not improved. We are developing the 2021 budget around multiple scenarios.” In transportation equipment, one manager reported business down almost 70 percent and the company expects to lay off 30 percent of its workforce until September or October.
However, the chemical products sector grew in July, and the ISM expects U.S manufacturing expansion to continue through August and possibly through the end of the year. The fall portends a lot of disruptive geopolitical activity, Fiore pointed out. “There’s concern over the virus, and of course the election. Trade issues will continue. In fact, trade issues will resurface as the WTO will likely rule in favor of Airbus, and we’ll see the U.S. retaliate.”
In 2004 the U.S. lodged a WTO case against the EU for its member state support to Airbus. In 2011 the WTO found the EU illegally funneled money to Airbus and issued a similar ruling — prompted by an EU suit — against the U.S. and Boeing in 2012. The dispute has continued and in 2019 the WTO authorized the U.S. to retaliate with tariffs against $7.5 billion worth of EU exports. Due to a timing lag, the WTO won’t issue a retaliation award in the EU’s complaint about Boeing until sometime this fall.
“Nobody is investing,” Fiore added, “and China will remain a long-lasting issue even when the virus is gone.”
The U.S. most recently has tightened semiconductor-equipment exports to China and continues to ban U.S. tech sales to Chinese network giant Huawei.
August 3, 2020
US July propylene contracts rise by 6 cents/lb as production issues persist
Author: Michael Sims
2020/07/31
HOUSTON (ICIS)–US July propylene contracts settled at a 6 cent/lb increase from June as spot prices rose to one-year highs amid ongoing production issues.
The settlement puts July polymer-grade propylene (PGP) contracts at 32.5 cents/lb ($716/tonne) DEL (delivered) and chemical-grade propylene (CGP) at 31.0 cents/lb.
The settlement marks the largest month-on-month increase since June 2018, when contract prices rose 8 cents/lb from the prior month.
Front-month PGP traded in July at 29.5-39.0 cents/lb, compared with 21.5-28.0 cents/lb in June.
Outages affecting US PGP production include: Dow’s propane dehydrogenation (PDH) unit in Freeport, Texas; INEOS’s cracker in Chocolate Bayou, Texas; Formosa Plastics Corporation USA’s cracker in Point Comfort, Texas; and BASF Total’s cracker in Port Arthur, Texas.
Also, co-production of propylene was reduced as ethane’s share of the US steam cracking feedslate is greater than it has ever been and is not expected to falter as heating demand for propane and butane rises in the colder months.
Cracking ethane produces ethylene with limited co-products, while cracking propane, butane and other heavier feeds yields propylene, among other chemicals.
Furthermore, continued low US refinery utilisation amid depressed gasoline demand has resulted in less refinery-grade propylene (RGP) production. RGP can be upgraded to PGP using a splitter.
Although US propylene supply faces a few short-to-medium-term production constraints, it is likely to be sufficient to meet slowly recovering demand in the latter half of 2020.
A slow global economy likely means demand weakness for propylene and its derivatives for the remainder of the year, with the possibility of further weak demand if coronavirus cases continue to spike.
The main outlet for propylene is as a feedstock for polypropylene (PP). Propylene is also used to produce acrylonitrile (ACN), propylene oxide (PO), a number of alcohols, cumene and acrylic acid.
Major US propylene producers include Chevron Phillips Chemical, Enterprise Products, ExxonMobil, Flint Hills Resources and Shell Chemical.
August 3, 2020
US July propylene contracts rise by 6 cents/lb as production issues persist
Author: Michael Sims
2020/07/31
HOUSTON (ICIS)–US July propylene contracts settled at a 6 cent/lb increase from June as spot prices rose to one-year highs amid ongoing production issues.
The settlement puts July polymer-grade propylene (PGP) contracts at 32.5 cents/lb ($716/tonne) DEL (delivered) and chemical-grade propylene (CGP) at 31.0 cents/lb.
The settlement marks the largest month-on-month increase since June 2018, when contract prices rose 8 cents/lb from the prior month.
Front-month PGP traded in July at 29.5-39.0 cents/lb, compared with 21.5-28.0 cents/lb in June.
Outages affecting US PGP production include: Dow’s propane dehydrogenation (PDH) unit in Freeport, Texas; INEOS’s cracker in Chocolate Bayou, Texas; Formosa Plastics Corporation USA’s cracker in Point Comfort, Texas; and BASF Total’s cracker in Port Arthur, Texas.
Also, co-production of propylene was reduced as ethane’s share of the US steam cracking feedslate is greater than it has ever been and is not expected to falter as heating demand for propane and butane rises in the colder months.
Cracking ethane produces ethylene with limited co-products, while cracking propane, butane and other heavier feeds yields propylene, among other chemicals.
Furthermore, continued low US refinery utilisation amid depressed gasoline demand has resulted in less refinery-grade propylene (RGP) production. RGP can be upgraded to PGP using a splitter.
Although US propylene supply faces a few short-to-medium-term production constraints, it is likely to be sufficient to meet slowly recovering demand in the latter half of 2020.
A slow global economy likely means demand weakness for propylene and its derivatives for the remainder of the year, with the possibility of further weak demand if coronavirus cases continue to spike.
The main outlet for propylene is as a feedstock for polypropylene (PP). Propylene is also used to produce acrylonitrile (ACN), propylene oxide (PO), a number of alcohols, cumene and acrylic acid.
Major US propylene producers include Chevron Phillips Chemical, Enterprise Products, ExxonMobil, Flint Hills Resources and Shell Chemical.
July 31, 2020
Jul. 31, 2020 9:45 AM ET|By: Gaurav Batavia, SA News Editor
June Chicago PMI: 51.9 vs. 42.8 consensus, 36.6 prior.
New orders and production helped the index higher, while supplier deliveries eased.
Employment ticked up, but remains a depressed 26 with firms continuing to lay off staff as a result of the current health crisis. Some companies, however, reported difficulties in finding new staff.
At 51.9, the PMI is at its highest level since May 2019, and ends a streak of 12 consecutive months in contraction territory.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3598437-chicago-pmi-hits-highest-level-since-may-2019
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