The Urethane Blog
March 5, 2019
New home sales rose in December as property prices declined
Sales of new U.S. homes unexpectedly rose in December after a downwardly revised November reading, as lower mortgage rates and more-affordable properties offered some relief for buyers.
Single-family home sales increased from the prior month to a 621,000 annualized pace, according to a government report Tuesday that was delayed more than a month by the partial government shutdown. While that’s above the median analyst estimate, the November figure was revised down by 58,000, and October’s reading was also lower than previously reported.
Sales probably got a lift from improved affordability, with the median sales price down 7.2% from a year earlier. The number of homes for sale where construction hadn’t started rose to the highest since 2007, indicating more supply that could hold down prices or push them even lower.
In addition, the housing market is likely getting support from a decline in mortgage rates, as well as a strong job market.
Also, wage gains are outpacing home-price increases by some measures for the first time in several years.
The latest reading is still below the pace in early 2018, and residential investment has been a drag on economic growth for four straight quarters. Previous data showed housing starts dropped to a two-year low in December while existing home sales — which account for the bulk of the market — fell in January to the slowest pace since 2015. The number of properties sold for which construction hadn’t yet started rose to 213,000, the highest since 2017, indicating a steady pipeline of building work.
Purchases of new homes rose in three of four U.S. regions, led by the biggest jump in the Northeast since 2015 and a 5% increase in the South. Sales in the Midwest fell to the lowest since April 2016.
The supply of homes at the current sales rate fell to 6.6 months from 6.7 months. The number of new homes for sale at the end of the month increased to 344,000, the highest since 2008, indicating more-ample supply.
New-home purchases are seen as a timelier barometer of the market, as they’re tabulated when contracts are signed, while sales of previously-owned homes are calculated when contracts close.
https://www.bondbuyer.com/articles/new-home-sales-rose-in-december-as-property-prices-declined?feed=0000015a-fd07-d271-a55f-fdf727ec0000
March 5, 2019
New home sales rose in December as property prices declined
Sales of new U.S. homes unexpectedly rose in December after a downwardly revised November reading, as lower mortgage rates and more-affordable properties offered some relief for buyers.
Single-family home sales increased from the prior month to a 621,000 annualized pace, according to a government report Tuesday that was delayed more than a month by the partial government shutdown. While that’s above the median analyst estimate, the November figure was revised down by 58,000, and October’s reading was also lower than previously reported.
Sales probably got a lift from improved affordability, with the median sales price down 7.2% from a year earlier. The number of homes for sale where construction hadn’t started rose to the highest since 2007, indicating more supply that could hold down prices or push them even lower.
In addition, the housing market is likely getting support from a decline in mortgage rates, as well as a strong job market.
Also, wage gains are outpacing home-price increases by some measures for the first time in several years.
The latest reading is still below the pace in early 2018, and residential investment has been a drag on economic growth for four straight quarters. Previous data showed housing starts dropped to a two-year low in December while existing home sales — which account for the bulk of the market — fell in January to the slowest pace since 2015. The number of properties sold for which construction hadn’t yet started rose to 213,000, the highest since 2017, indicating a steady pipeline of building work.
Purchases of new homes rose in three of four U.S. regions, led by the biggest jump in the Northeast since 2015 and a 5% increase in the South. Sales in the Midwest fell to the lowest since April 2016.
The supply of homes at the current sales rate fell to 6.6 months from 6.7 months. The number of new homes for sale at the end of the month increased to 344,000, the highest since 2008, indicating more-ample supply.
New-home purchases are seen as a timelier barometer of the market, as they’re tabulated when contracts are signed, while sales of previously-owned homes are calculated when contracts close.
https://www.bondbuyer.com/articles/new-home-sales-rose-in-december-as-property-prices-declined?feed=0000015a-fd07-d271-a55f-fdf727ec0000
March 4, 2019
DOWNERS GROVE, Ill., March 4, 2019 /PRNewswire/ — Univar Inc. (NYSE: UNVR) (“Univar Solutions”), a leading global chemical and ingredient solutions provider, today announced revised guidance for full year 2019 reflecting the completed acquisition of Nexeo Solutions, Inc. (“Nexeo”). “Completing the acquisition of Nexeo is a positive step forward as we redefine chemical and ingredient distribution and deliver superior growth for our partners, people and shareholders,” said David Jukes, Univar Solutions president and chief executive officer. “As Univar Solutions, we see even greater opportunities to drive efficiencies as we focus on our mission of streamlining, innovating and growing the new company.” Full Year 2019 Guidance For the full year 2019, on a combined basis, Univar expects to earn $740 to $760 million in Adjusted EBITDA. This guidance reflects 10 months of earnings from the Nexeo Chemicals business and approximately $10 million in realized synergies. The Company expects to generate $300 to $350 million in free cash flow before one-time integration costs of approximately $70 million. This guidance excludes the impact of the Nexeo plastics distribution business (“Nexeo Plastics”), which will be accounted for as a discontinued operation. An agreement was previously announced to divest Nexeo Plastics to an affiliate of One Rock Capital Partners, LLC (“One Rock“) in a transaction valued at approximately $640 million, subject to customary closing adjustments. The transaction is expected to close in the first half of 2019 with net proceeds being used to immediately pay down debt. The transaction remains subject to the satisfaction of customary closing conditions. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/univar-solutions-announces-full-year-2019-combined-guidance-300805723.htmlUnivar Solutions Announces Full Year 2019 Combined Guidance
March 4, 2019
DOWNERS GROVE, Ill., March 4, 2019 /PRNewswire/ — Univar Inc. (NYSE: UNVR) (“Univar Solutions”), a leading global chemical and ingredient solutions provider, today announced revised guidance for full year 2019 reflecting the completed acquisition of Nexeo Solutions, Inc. (“Nexeo”). “Completing the acquisition of Nexeo is a positive step forward as we redefine chemical and ingredient distribution and deliver superior growth for our partners, people and shareholders,” said David Jukes, Univar Solutions president and chief executive officer. “As Univar Solutions, we see even greater opportunities to drive efficiencies as we focus on our mission of streamlining, innovating and growing the new company.” Full Year 2019 Guidance For the full year 2019, on a combined basis, Univar expects to earn $740 to $760 million in Adjusted EBITDA. This guidance reflects 10 months of earnings from the Nexeo Chemicals business and approximately $10 million in realized synergies. The Company expects to generate $300 to $350 million in free cash flow before one-time integration costs of approximately $70 million. This guidance excludes the impact of the Nexeo plastics distribution business (“Nexeo Plastics”), which will be accounted for as a discontinued operation. An agreement was previously announced to divest Nexeo Plastics to an affiliate of One Rock Capital Partners, LLC (“One Rock“) in a transaction valued at approximately $640 million, subject to customary closing adjustments. The transaction is expected to close in the first half of 2019 with net proceeds being used to immediately pay down debt. The transaction remains subject to the satisfaction of customary closing conditions. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/univar-solutions-announces-full-year-2019-combined-guidance-300805723.htmlUnivar Solutions Announces Full Year 2019 Combined Guidance
March 2, 2019
Amid the dimmest Sun since 1978 – a month without sunspots
The sun today is cue-ball blank, a perfect unmarred sphere:
The sun has just passed an entire calendar month with no sunspots. The last time this happened, in August 2008, the sun was in the nadir of a century-class Solar Minimum. The current stretch of blank suns shows that Solar Minimum has returned, and it could be as deep as the last one.
The last time a full calendar month passed without a sunspot was August 2008. At the time, the sun was in the deepest Solar Minimum of the Space Age. Now a new Solar Minimum is in progress and it is shaping up to be similarly deep. So far this year, the sun has been blank 73% of the time–the same as 2008.
Solar Minimum is a normal part of the solar cycle. Every ~11 years, sunspot counts drop toward zero. Dark cores that produce solar flares and CMEs vanish from the solar disk, leaving the sun blank for long stretches of time. These minima have been coming and going with regularity since the sunspot cycle was discovered in 1859.
Full story at Spaceweather.com
Here’s the sunspot data:
Meanwhile, the sun is putting out less solar energy towards the Earth, as this graph of PMOD composite monthly total solar irradiance (TSI) data shows:
What is most interesting is in the PMOD ( Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos (PMOD) composite ) TSI data, measured by satellites, and endorsed by NOAA, shows a drop of 2 watts per square meter since it’s peak around 2003, to the present in 2019, where in the last month, it has literally dropped like a rock, creating the lowest value in the dataset so far.
The estimate of increased solar forcing from increased carbon dioxide and other GHG’s in Earth’s atmosphere could be up to 3 watts/square meter if model estimates are to be believed:
This graph shows changes in radiative forcing of long-lived greenhouse gases between 1979-2012. These gases are carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), chlorofluorocarbon-12 (CFC-12), CFC-11, and fifteen other minor, long-lived, halogenated gases. The 15 other halogenated gases are CFC-113, tetrachloromethane (CCl4), trichloromethane (CH3CCl3); hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) 22, 141b and 142b; hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) 134a, 152a, 23, 143a, and 125; sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), and halons 1211, 1301 and 2402). The graph does not include other forcings, such as aerosols and changes in solar activity. Summary Total forcing in 1979 was 1.712 watts per square metre (W.m-2), and has steadily increased over time to 2.873 W.m-2 in 2012. Between 1979-2012, the largest contributors to radiative forcing have been CO2 and CH4. In 2012, the percentage contributions of each gas to total forcing was approximately: CO2: 64% CH4: 18% N2O: 6% CFC-12: 6% CFC-11: 2% 15 minor gases: 4% Forcing data are briefly summarized below. All the data are available in a later section as comma-separated values. The first value is the year, followed by forcing values (in W.m-2) for CO2, CH4, N2O, CFC-12, CFC-11, the 15-minor halogenated gases, and total forcing, respectively: 1979: 1.027, 0.419, 0.104, 0.092, 0.039, 0.031, 1.712 1980: 1.058, 0.426, 0.104, 0.097, 0.042, 0.034, 1.761 1990: 1.293, 0.472, 0.129, 0.154, 0.065, 0.065, 2.178 2000: 1.513, 0.494, 0.151, 0.173, 0.066, 0.083, 2.481 2010: 1.791, 0.504, 0.174, 0.170, 0.060, 0.106, 2.805 2012: 1.846, 0.507, 0.181, 0.168, 0.059, 0.111, 2.873References: Butler, J.H. and S.A. Montzka (2013-08-01) THE NOAA ANNUAL GREENHOUSE GAS INDEX (AGGI)[1], NOAA/ESRL Global Monitoring Division
It seems the sun has dimmed more than the usual amount at the end of solar cycle 24, and it could be a factor in the severe winter we are experiencing in many parts of the northern hemisphere.
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