The Urethane Blog
December 18, 2023
Truckload supply and demand on collision course in 2024
Data gives reason for optimism for economy and transportation market next year
Zach Strickland, FW Market Expert & Market Analyst
· Saturday, December 16, 2023
Listen to this article
4 min
Chart of the Week: Carrier Details Total Trucking Authorities, Outbound Tender Volume Index – USA SONAR: CDTTA.USA, OTVI.USA
Trucking demand is up while capacity is down since this time last year. This statement by itself means that the transportation market is healthier, but it also suggests that 2024 should be better in aggregate as the gap between supply and demand narrows quickly.
Truckload demand is barely a shadow of what it was during the pandemic, but it has been growing throughout most of 2023. This fact has been invisible to most carriers and 3PLs, which continue to deal with a massive glut of oversupplied capacity thanks to a record number of entrants in 2020-21 according to Carrier Details Total Trucking Authorities data set.
Tender volumes are averaging over 10% higher year over year this December and have been growing steadily since last winter. Outside of October, daily tender volumes moved higher, suggesting that economic demand for goods has grown.
On this past week’s Freightonomics episode, Zac Rogers, an associate professor of supply chain management at Colorado State and co-author of the Logistics Managers’ Index (LMI), suggested that the demand growth was a product of both inventories having been rightsized versus this time last year and growth in consumption.
While he admits that there is some ongoing concern about consumer health, the numbers are what they are. Anthony Smith, FreightWaves’ chief economist, responded to his concerns with a resounding “never bet against the American consumer.”
Possibly the most shocking revelation was in the LMI outlook of transportation prices by respondents. The LMI is divided up into multiple measures of logistics activity such as transportation and warehousing prices and capacity. Values above 50 indicate expansion while values below 50 are contractionary.
The transportation pricing component has averaged a value of 38 in 2023 and has been showing below 50 since the summer of 2022. Respondents to the November survey showed a reading of around 64 for prices in 2024, indicating that most expect rates to have bottomed.
While every forecast is an opinion on some level, the data does suggest that the supply of capacity and demand for its use is moving back toward equilibrium at a relatively fast clip.
Looking at the past 13 years of Carrier Details Total Trucking Authorities data, there has never been such a strong downward trend. This of course is following the historic growth rate — the definition of an economic bubble.
FreightWaves CEO Craig Fuller stated in this past week’s State of Freight webinar that the risk is growing for shippers in 2024. Taking an overly aggressive approach to cost cutting would be much more risky than last year. No capacity is guaranteed. Even the strongest carriers feel this level of market downturn.
While Fuller admitted that he does not definitively know that the market will turn, there are several LMI respondents that feel similarly that there will be noticeable signs of tightening by the end of next year.
Economically speaking, there are still questions, but the answers are coming into focus with time. At the very least, the U.S. has economically overachieved versus many expectations, which does provide hope for the “soft landing” many have wanted.
Unfortunately, the solution to the freight market means that several first have to lose. This has been the case for many sectors post-pandemic. But this too is passing.
About the Chart of the Week
The FreightWaves Chart of the Week is a chart selection from SONAR that provides an interesting data point to describe the state of the freight markets. A chart is chosen from thousands of potential charts on SONAR to help participants visualize the freight market in real time. Each week a Market Expert will post a chart, along with commentary, live on the front page. After that, the Chart of the Week will be archived on FreightWaves.com for future reference.
SONAR aggregates data from hundreds of sources, presenting the data in charts and maps and providing commentary on what freight market experts want to know about the industry in real time.
The FreightWaves data science and product teams are releasing new datasets each week and enhancing the client experience.
December 18, 2023
Visualizing $97 Trillion Of Global Debt In 2023
by Tyler Durden
Monday, Dec 18, 2023 – 06:55 AM
Global government debt is projected to hit $97.1 trillion this year, a 40% increase since 2019.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, governments introduced sweeping financial measures to support the job market and prevent a wave of bankruptcies. However, this has exposed vulnerabilities as higher interest rates are amplifying borrowing costs.
In the graphic below, Visual Capitalist’s Niccolo Conte and Dorothy Neufeld show global debt by country in 2023, based on projections from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Debt by Country in 2023
Below, we rank countries by their general government gross debt, or the financial liabilities owed by each country:
| Country | Gross Debt (B) | % of World Total | Debt to GDP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 U.S. | $33,228.9 | 34.2% | 123.3% |
| 🇨🇳 China | $14,691.7 | 15.1% | 83.0% |
| 🇯🇵 Japan | $10,797.2 | 11.1% | 255.2% |
| 🇬🇧 UK | $3,468.7 | 3.6% | 104.1% |
| 🇫🇷 France | $3,353.9 | 3.5% | 110.0% |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | $3,141.4 | 3.2% | 143.7% |
| 🇮🇳 India | $3,056.7 | 3.1% | 81.9% |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | $2,919.3 | 3.0% | 65.9% |
| 🇨🇦 Canada | $2,253.3 | 2.3% | 106.4% |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | $1,873.7 | 1.9% | 88.1% |
| 🇪🇸 Spain | $1,697.5 | 1.7% | 107.3% |
| 🇲🇽 Mexico | $954.6 | 1.0% | 52.7% |
| 🇰🇷 South Korea | $928.1 | 1.0% | 54.3% |
| 🇦🇺 Australia | $875.9 | 0.9% | 51.9% |
| 🇸🇬 Singapore | $835.0 | 0.9% | 167.9% |
| 🇧🇪 Belgium | $665.2 | 0.7% | 106.0% |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina | $556.5 | 0.6% | 89.5% |
| 🇮🇩 Indonesia | $552.8 | 0.6% | 39.0% |
| 🇳🇱 Netherlands | $540.9 | 0.6% | 49.5% |
| 🇵🇱 Poland | $419.4 | 0.4% | 49.8% |
| 🇬🇷 Greece | $407.2 | 0.4% | 168.0% |
| 🇹🇷 Türkiye | $397.2 | 0.4% | 34.4% |
| 🇷🇺 Russia | $394.8 | 0.4% | 21.2% |
| 🇦🇹 Austria | $393.6 | 0.4% | 74.8% |
| 🇪🇬 Egypt | $369.3 | 0.4% | 92.7% |
| 🇨🇭 Switzerland | $357.7 | 0.4% | 39.5% |
| 🇹🇭 Thailand | $314.5 | 0.3% | 61.4% |
| 🇮🇱 Israel | $303.6 | 0.3% | 58.2% |
| 🇵🇹 Portugal | $299.4 | 0.3% | 108.3% |
| 🇲🇾 Malaysia | $288.3 | 0.3% | 66.9% |
| 🇿🇦 South Africa | $280.7 | 0.3% | 73.7% |
| 🇵🇰 Pakistan | $260.9 | 0.3% | 76.6% |
| 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | $257.7 | 0.3% | 24.1% |
| 🇮🇪 Ireland | $251.7 | 0.3% | 42.7% |
| 🇵🇭 Philippines | $250.9 | 0.3% | 57.6% |
| 🇫🇮 Finland | $225.0 | 0.2% | 73.6% |
| 🇳🇴 Norway | $204.5 | 0.2% | 37.4% |
| 🇨🇴 Colombia | $200.1 | 0.2% | 55.0% |
| 🇹🇼 Taiwan | $200.0 | 0.2% | 26.6% |
| 🇸🇪 Sweden | $192.9 | 0.2% | 32.3% |
| 🇷🇴 Romania | $178.7 | 0.2% | 51.0% |
| 🇧🇩 Bangladesh | $175.9 | 0.2% | 39.4% |
| 🇺🇦 Ukraine | $152.8 | 0.2% | 88.1% |
| 🇨🇿 Czech Republic | $152.2 | 0.2% | 45.4% |
| 🇳🇬 Nigeria | $151.3 | 0.2% | 38.8% |
| 🇦🇪 UAE | $149.7 | 0.2% | 29.4% |
| 🇻🇳 Vietnam | $147.3 | 0.2% | 34.0% |
| 🇭🇺 Hungary | $140.0 | 0.1% | 68.7% |
| 🇨🇱 Chile | $132.2 | 0.1% | 38.4% |
| 🇩🇰 Denmark | $126.7 | 0.1% | 30.1% |
| 🇮🇶 Iraq | $125.5 | 0.1% | 49.2% |
| 🇩🇿 Algeria | $123.5 | 0.1% | 55.1% |
| 🇳🇿 New Zealand | $115.0 | 0.1% | 46.1% |
| 🇮🇷 Iran | $112.1 | 0.1% | 30.6% |
| 🇲🇦 Morocco | $102.7 | 0.1% | 69.7% |
| 🇶🇦 Qatar | $97.5 | 0.1% | 41.4% |
| 🇵🇪 Peru | $89.7 | 0.1% | 33.9% |
| 🇦🇴 Angola | $79.6 | 0.1% | 84.9% |
| 🇰🇪 Kenya | $79.1 | 0.1% | 70.2% |
| 🇸🇰 Slovakia | $75.4 | 0.1% | 56.7% |
| 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic | $72.1 | 0.1% | 59.8% |
| 🇪🇨 Ecuador | $65.9 | 0.1% | 55.5% |
| 🇸🇩 Sudan | $65.5 | 0.1% | 256.0% |
| 🇬🇭 Ghana | $65.1 | 0.1% | 84.9% |
| 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan | $60.7 | 0.1% | 23.4% |
| 🇪🇹 Ethiopia | $59.0 | 0.1% | 37.9% |
| 🇧🇭 Bahrain | $54.5 | 0.1% | 121.2% |
| 🇨🇷 Costa Rica | $53.9 | 0.1% | 63.0% |
| 🇭🇷 Croatia | $51.2 | 0.1% | 63.8% |
| 🇺🇾 Uruguay | $47.0 | 0.0% | 61.6% |
| 🇯🇴 Jordan | $46.9 | 0.0% | 93.8% |
| 🇸🇮 Slovenia | $46.8 | 0.0% | 68.5% |
| 🇨🇮 Côte d’Ivoire | $45.1 | 0.0% | 56.8% |
| 🇵🇦 Panama | $43.5 | 0.0% | 52.8% |
| 🇲🇲 Myanmar | $43.0 | 0.0% | 57.5% |
| 🇴🇲 Oman | $41.4 | 0.0% | 38.2% |
| 🇹🇳 Tunisia | $39.9 | 0.0% | 77.8% |
| 🇷🇸 Serbia | $38.5 | 0.0% | 51.3% |
| 🇧🇴 Bolivia | $37.8 | 0.0% | 80.8% |
| 🇹🇿 Tanzania | $35.8 | 0.0% | 42.6% |
| 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan | $31.7 | 0.0% | 35.1% |
| 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe | $30.9 | 0.0% | 95.4% |
| 🇧🇾 Belarus | $30.4 | 0.0% | 44.1% |
| 🇬🇹 Guatemala | $29.1 | 0.0% | 28.3% |
| 🇱🇹 Lithuania | $28.7 | 0.0% | 36.1% |
| 🇸🇻 El Salvador | $25.8 | 0.0% | 73.0% |
| 🇺🇬 Uganda | $25.3 | 0.0% | 48.3% |
| 🇸🇳 Senegal | $25.2 | 0.0% | 81.0% |
| 🇨🇾 Cyprus | $25.2 | 0.0% | 78.6% |
| 🇱🇺 Luxembourg | $24.6 | 0.0% | 27.6% |
| 🇭🇰 Hong Kong SAR | $23.5 | 0.0% | 6.1% |
| 🇧🇬 Bulgaria | $21.7 | 0.0% | 21.0% |
| 🇨🇲 Cameroon | $20.6 | 0.0% | 41.9% |
| 🇲🇿 Mozambique | $19.7 | 0.0% | 89.7% |
| 🇵🇷 Puerto Rico | $19.6 | 0.0% | 16.7% |
| 🇳🇵 Nepal | $19.3 | 0.0% | 46.7% |
| 🇱🇻 Latvia | $18.9 | 0.0% | 40.6% |
| 🇮🇸 Iceland | $18.7 | 0.0% | 61.2% |
| 🇵🇾 Paraguay | $18.1 | 0.0% | 40.9% |
| 🇱🇦 Lao P.D.R. | $17.3 | 0.0% | 121.7% |
| 🇭🇳 Honduras | $15.7 | 0.0% | 46.3% |
| 🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea | $15.7 | 0.0% | 49.5% |
| 🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago | $14.6 | 0.0% | 52.5% |
| 🇦🇱 Albania | $14.5 | 0.0% | 62.9% |
| 🇨🇬 Republic of Congo | $14.1 | 0.0% | 97.8% |
| 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan | $14.1 | 0.0% | 18.2% |
| 🇾🇪 Yemen | $14.0 | 0.0% | 66.4% |
| 🇯🇲 Jamaica | $13.6 | 0.0% | 72.3% |
| 🇲🇳 Mongolia | $13.1 | 0.0% | 69.9% |
| 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso | $12.7 | 0.0% | 61.2% |
| 🇬🇦 Gabon | $12.5 | 0.0% | 64.9% |
| 🇬🇪 Georgia | $11.9 | 0.0% | 39.6% |
| 🇲🇺 Mauritius | $11.8 | 0.0% | 79.7% |
| 🇦🇲 Armenia | $11.8 | 0.0% | 47.9% |
| 🇧🇸 Bahamas | $11.7 | 0.0% | 84.2% |
| 🇲🇱 Mali | $11.0 | 0.0% | 51.8% |
| 🇲🇹 Malta | $11.0 | 0.0% | 54.1% |
| 🇰🇭 Cambodia | $10.9 | 0.0% | 35.3% |
| 🇧🇯 Benin | $10.6 | 0.0% | 53.0% |
| 🇲🇼 Malawi | $10.4 | 0.0% | 78.6% |
| 🇪🇪 Estonia | $9.0 | 0.0% | 21.6% |
| 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic of Congo | $9.0 | 0.0% | 13.3% |
| 🇷🇼 Rwanda | $8.8 | 0.0% | 63.3% |
| 🇳🇦 Namibia | $8.5 | 0.0% | 67.6% |
| 🇲🇬 Madagascar | $8.5 | 0.0% | 54.0% |
| 🇳🇪 Niger | $8.3 | 0.0% | 48.7% |
| 🇲🇰 North Macedonia | $8.2 | 0.0% | 51.6% |
| 🇧🇦 Bosnia and Herzegovina | $7.7 | 0.0% | 28.6% |
| 🇲🇻 Maldives | $7.7 | 0.0% | 110.3% |
| 🇬🇳 Guinea | $7.3 | 0.0% | 31.6% |
| 🇳🇮 Nicaragua | $7.2 | 0.0% | 41.5% |
| 🇧🇧 Barbados | $7.2 | 0.0% | 115.0% |
| 🇹🇬 Togo | $6.1 | 0.0% | 67.2% |
| 🇰🇬 Kyrgyz Republic | $6.0 | 0.0% | 47.0% |
| 🇲🇩 Moldova | $5.6 | 0.0% | 35.1% |
| 🇹🇩 Chad | $5.4 | 0.0% | 43.2% |
| 🇰🇼 Kuwait | $5.4 | 0.0% | 3.4% |
| 🇲🇷 Mauritania | $5.1 | 0.0% | 49.5% |
| 🇭🇹 Haiti | $5.1 | 0.0% | 19.6% |
| 🇬🇾 Guyana | $4.9 | 0.0% | 29.9% |
| 🇲🇪 Montenegro | $4.6 | 0.0% | 65.8% |
| 🇫🇯 Fiji | $4.6 | 0.0% | 83.6% |
| 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan | $4.2 | 0.0% | 5.1% |
| 🇹🇯 Tajikistan | $4.0 | 0.0% | 33.5% |
| 🇧🇼 Botswana | $3.9 | 0.0% | 18.7% |
| 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea | $3.8 | 0.0% | 38.3% |
| 🇸🇷 Suriname | $3.8 | 0.0% | 107.0% |
| 🇸🇸 South Sudan | $3.8 | 0.0% | 60.4% |
| 🇧🇹 Bhutan | $3.3 | 0.0% | 123.4% |
| 🇦🇼 Aruba | $3.2 | 0.0% | 82.9% |
| 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone | $3.1 | 0.0% | 88.9% |
| 🇨🇻 Cabo Verde | $2.9 | 0.0% | 113.1% |
| 🇧🇮 Burundi | $2.3 | 0.0% | 72.7% |
| 🇱🇷 Liberia | $2.3 | 0.0% | 52.3% |
| 🇽🇰 Kosovo | $2.2 | 0.0% | 21.3% |
| 🇸🇿 Eswatini | $2.0 | 0.0% | 42.4% |
| 🇧🇿 Belize | $1.9 | 0.0% | 59.3% |
| 🇱🇨 Saint Lucia | $1.8 | 0.0% | 74.2% |
| 🇬🇲 Gambia | $1.7 | 0.0% | 72.3% |
| 🇩🇯 Djibouti | $1.6 | 0.0% | 41.8% |
| 🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda | $1.6 | 0.0% | 80.5% |
| 🇸🇲 San Marino | $1.5 | 0.0% | 74.0% |
| 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau | $1.5 | 0.0% | 73.9% |
| 🇱🇸 Lesotho | $1.5 | 0.0% | 61.3% |
| 🇦🇩 Andorra | $1.4 | 0.0% | 37.7% |
| 🇨🇫 Central African Republic | $1.4 | 0.0% | 50.1% |
| 🇸🇨 Seychelles | $1.3 | 0.0% | 60.8% |
| 🇻🇨 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines | $0.9 | 0.0% | 86.2% |
| 🇬🇩 Grenada | $0.8 | 0.0% | 60.2% |
| 🇩🇲 Dominica | $0.7 | 0.0% | 93.9% |
| 🇰🇳 Saint Kitts and Nevis | $0.6 | 0.0% | 53.2% |
| 🇻🇺 Vanuatu | $0.5 | 0.0% | 46.8% |
| 🇰🇲 Comoros | $0.5 | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| 🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe | $0.4 | 0.0% | 58.5% |
| 🇸🇧 Solomon Islands | $0.4 | 0.0% | 22.2% |
| 🇧🇳 Brunei Darussalam | $0.3 | 0.0% | 2.3% |
| 🇼🇸 Samoa | $0.3 | 0.0% | 36.2% |
| 🇹🇱 Timor-Leste | $0.3 | 0.0% | 16.4% |
| 🇵🇼 Palau | $0.2 | 0.0% | 85.4% |
| 🇹🇴 Tonga | $0.2 | 0.0% | 41.1% |
| 🇫🇲 Micronesia | $0.1 | 0.0% | 12.5% |
| 🇲🇭 Marshall Islands | $0.1 | 0.0% | 18.1% |
| 🇳🇷 Nauru | <$0.1 | 0.0% | 29.1% |
| 🇰🇮 Kiribati | <$0.1 | 0.0% | 13.1% |
| 🇹🇻 Tuvalu | <$0.1 | 0.0% | 8.0% |
| 🇲🇴 Macao SAR | <$0.1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 🌐 World | $97,129.8 | 100% | 93.0% |
With $33.2 trillion in government debt, the U.S. makes up over a third of the world total.
Given the increasing debt load, the cost of servicing this debt now accounts for 20% of government spending. It is projected to reach $1 trillion by 2028, surpassing the total spent on defense.
The world’s third-biggest economy, Japan, has one of the highest debt to GDP ratios, at 255%. Over the last two decades, its national debt has far exceeded 100% of its GDP, driven by an aging population and social security expenses.
In 2023, Egypt faces steep borrowing costs, with 40% of revenues going towards debt repayments. It has the highest debt on the continent.
Like Egypt, several emerging economies are facing strain. Lebanon has been in default since 2020, and Ghana defaulted on the majority of its external debt—debt owed to foreign lenders—in 2022 amid a deepening economic crisis.
Global Debt: A Regional Perspective
How does debt compare on a regional level in 2023?
We can see that North America has both the highest debt and debt to GDP compared to other regions. Just as U.S. debt has ballooned, so has Canada’s—ranking as the 10th-highest globally in government debt outstanding.
Across Asia and the Pacific, debt levels hover close to North America.
At 3.3% of the global total, South America has $3.2 trillion in debt. As inflation has trended downwards, a handful of governments have already begun cutting interest rates. Overall, public debt levels are projected to stay elevated across the region.
Debt levels have also risen rapidly in Africa, with an average 40% of public debt held in foreign currencies—leaving it exposed to exchange rate fluctuations. Another challenge is that interest rates are also higher across the region compared to advanced economies, increasing debt-servicing costs.
By 2028, the IMF projects that global public debt will exceed 100% of GDP, hitting levels only seen during the pandemic.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/visualizing-97-trillion-global-debt-2023
December 17, 2023
Saint-Gobain to Sell Majority of UK Foam Insulation Business to Soprema
Published: Dec. 7, 2023 at 1:33 a.m. ET
By David Sachs
Saint-Gobain said it would sell a majority stake in its U.K. foam insulation business to Soprema as part of its disposal plan.
The French construction supplier said late Wednesday that Celotex’s assets will be transferred to a new standalone company, which will be 75% owned by Soprema, a private French waterproofing and insulation firm. Saint-Gobain will retain a 25% minority stake, it said.
The move is part of Saint-Gobain’s streamlining strategy, which includes asset-disposals.
Celotex has two manufacturing facilities in the U.K. and employs 155 people, Saint-Gobain said. The transaction is expected to close early next year.
Financial details were not disclosed.
December 10, 2023
LyondellBasell Announces Sale of Ethylene Oxide & Derivatives Business and Production Facility to INEOS
HOUSTON, Dec. 8, 2023 /PRNewswire/ — LyondellBasell (LYB) today announced it has entered into an agreement to sell its Ethylene Oxide & Derivatives (EO&D) business along with the production facility located in Bayport, Texas to INEOS Oxide (INEOS).
“This transaction is evidence of our disciplined focus on value creation through the execution of a key pillar of our strategy – growing and upgrading our core,” said Peter Vanacker, LyondellBasell CEO. “Successful execution of this strategic pillar involves making difficult decisions to divest businesses which are not part of our core. We remain proud of the positive cash generation, access to advantaged feedstocks, reliability and highly skilled team that makes up the EO&D business and are excited to have reached an agreement with INEOS to enable the business to continue generating value under different ownership. We look forward to collaborating closely with INEOS on a seamless transition.”
The Ethylene Oxide & Derivatives business in Bayport produces high-quality ethylene oxide and various derivatives. The fully integrated platform with access to cost-advantaged feedstocks and logistics networks has excellent performance and reputation in the market.
Tobias Hannemann, CEO INEOS Oxide said, “We are pleased to announce this strategic acquisition. INEOS is a leading producer in Europe and this significant step expands its Ethylene Oxide & Derivatives business into the US, which is the world’s largest market. It also complements our existing Ethanolamines production facility in Plaquemine, Louisiana.”
The purchase price for the transaction is $700 million. The transaction is expected to close in the second quarter of 2024 following completion of the planned maintenance at the facility and is subject to regulatory and other customary closing conditions. J.P. Morgan acted as financial advisor and King & Spalding acted as legal counsel to LyondellBasell.
https://lyondellbasell.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=43&item=1470
December 10, 2023
“Winter Is Coming” For Leveraged Companies
by Tyler Durden
Friday, Dec 08, 2023 – 12:45 PM
Earlier in the year, as regional banks faced a domino effect of failures, Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett pointed out that every Fed tightening cycle has historically resulted in a crisis.
Given that the Federal Reserve hasn’t allowed a real credit cycle since the early 2000s, prolonged monetary tightening suggests that “winter is coming” for leveraged companies.
“The whole market and companies have been living in this la la land, this fake world of wealth of quantitative easing where you can borrow at 1% or 2%, you can buy anything, you can make lots of mistakes and you’re not going to get called out,” said Paul Horvath, chief executive officer at investment firm Orchard Global.
Horvath, speaking at the Milken Institute’s Middle East and Africa Summit in Abu Dhabi this week, was quoted by Bloomberg. He warned: “Winter is coming, and I don’t think people have enough parkas.”
The asset manager head said financial markets are holding up well so far, given the high rates. He noted corporates are levered up due to private equity firms buying up companies with cheap money, adding a global financial crisis might not be in the cards – but expects there will still be stress.
Bloomberg pointed out there were record levels of dealmaking during the pandemic era of cheap money. This led to a surge in private equity buyouts, backed by leveraged finance and the debt load placed on the target company. A large amount of that debt for junk-rated firms is coming due as large maturity walls approach.
Also speaking at the event was SLR Capital Partners co-founder Michael Gross, who said there is no easy solution for companies needing to refinance this debt.
“It’s going to take more than public markets coming back,” Gross said, adding, “It’s going to probably require private equity sponsors to find unique solutions like putting in more equity or finding preferred investors to step into the capital structures.”
Gross said managing portfolio companies with outdated debt structures will also face challenges for private credit funds.
He explained that funds were structured in a world of “perfection” based on an era of low interest rates, but that has all changed.
A higher for the longer environment with mounting macroeconomic headwinds only means over-leveraged firms are increasingly falling into distressed
The impact of this tightening cycle could be worse than the Great Recession – unless the Fed reverses course.
Rate traders are already pricing more than 100bps of rate cuts for 2024.
Meanwhile, Anne Walsh, chief investment officer of Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, said the US economy “hasn’t had a real corporate credit cycle since the early 2000s,” indicating a “purge is about to happen.”
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/winter-coming-leveraged-companies
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