Pricing and Markets
July 26, 2022
Natural Gas Spreads Between Europe and U.S.
EU Natural Gas Prices Soar As Gazprom Readies Nord Stream Cuts, US NatGas Hits 14-Year High
by Tyler DurdenTuesday, Jul 26, 2022 – 09:16 AM
European natural gas futures extended gains by 12% after Russian state-owned energy producer Gazprom PJSC unexpectedly announced it would halt a Nord Stream 1 turbine at its Portovaya compressor station from Wednesday. Simultaneously, US NatGas futures have spiked to 14-year highs.
Russian NatGas supplies to Europe via Nord Stream pipeline fell to 38% capacity from 40% on Tuesday, ahead of a more significant cut from current levels to just 20% on Wednesday.
In a statement, Gazprom said the Nord Stream pipeline would be pumping 33 million cubic meters a day, or 20% of capacity, from Wednesday, adding another turbine for the pipeline will be taken offline due to maintenance work.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said another Nord Stream turbine has “problems” and will be taken offline for maintenance.
Peskov noted a turbine sent to Canada earlier is “en route” but didn’t specify its exact location.
Western sanctions prolonged the average maintenance time of the Nord Stream.
“The situation is critically aggravated by the restrictions and sanctions imposed against our country,” the Kremlin spokesman continued.
Russian state media reported Monday that the turbine recently serviced in Canada by Siemens Energy AG had finally received export paperwork that will allow it to be shipped from Germany to Helsinki, Finland.
Nord Stream’s upcoming capacity declines sent Wholesale European NatGas futures up 12% to 196 euros. Prices have jumped more than 20% in two sessions and are near highs seen last winter at more than 200 euros.
EU Natgas prices are trading at an oil-barrel-equivalent price of $333….
Across the Atlantic, US NatGas futures extended gains, up more than 10% to $9.62, a 14-year high, amid concerns about hot weather and tight supplies.
“Although the magnitude and speed of recent natural gas price gains point to contributing non-fundamental market dynamics, supportive fundamentals are nonetheless the primary driver,” EBW Analytics Group wrote in a note to clients.
“Fundamentally, scorching hot weather is the predominant bullish driver,” the firm added.
There’s also reason to believe that tighter European supplies would result in more US LNG exports abroad.
For more context, European NatGas 1m forward is trading at a massive $48 spread over front-month US NatGas futures – almost 5x its historical peak…
Europe’s energy crisis continues to worsen, and there is no immediate relief in sight as this coming winter could be a cold one.
“This is not the end of Russia’s weaponization of natural gas flows, in our view, and there remain few near-term alternatives for even current reduced flows to the EU – lending [to] ongoing upside price risks,” RBC wrote last week in a note to clients.
July 26, 2022
Natural Gas Spreads Between Europe and U.S.
EU Natural Gas Prices Soar As Gazprom Readies Nord Stream Cuts, US NatGas Hits 14-Year High
by Tyler DurdenTuesday, Jul 26, 2022 – 09:16 AM
European natural gas futures extended gains by 12% after Russian state-owned energy producer Gazprom PJSC unexpectedly announced it would halt a Nord Stream 1 turbine at its Portovaya compressor station from Wednesday. Simultaneously, US NatGas futures have spiked to 14-year highs.
Russian NatGas supplies to Europe via Nord Stream pipeline fell to 38% capacity from 40% on Tuesday, ahead of a more significant cut from current levels to just 20% on Wednesday.
In a statement, Gazprom said the Nord Stream pipeline would be pumping 33 million cubic meters a day, or 20% of capacity, from Wednesday, adding another turbine for the pipeline will be taken offline due to maintenance work.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said another Nord Stream turbine has “problems” and will be taken offline for maintenance.
Peskov noted a turbine sent to Canada earlier is “en route” but didn’t specify its exact location.
Western sanctions prolonged the average maintenance time of the Nord Stream.
“The situation is critically aggravated by the restrictions and sanctions imposed against our country,” the Kremlin spokesman continued.
Russian state media reported Monday that the turbine recently serviced in Canada by Siemens Energy AG had finally received export paperwork that will allow it to be shipped from Germany to Helsinki, Finland.
Nord Stream’s upcoming capacity declines sent Wholesale European NatGas futures up 12% to 196 euros. Prices have jumped more than 20% in two sessions and are near highs seen last winter at more than 200 euros.
EU Natgas prices are trading at an oil-barrel-equivalent price of $333….
Across the Atlantic, US NatGas futures extended gains, up more than 10% to $9.62, a 14-year high, amid concerns about hot weather and tight supplies.
“Although the magnitude and speed of recent natural gas price gains point to contributing non-fundamental market dynamics, supportive fundamentals are nonetheless the primary driver,” EBW Analytics Group wrote in a note to clients.
“Fundamentally, scorching hot weather is the predominant bullish driver,” the firm added.
There’s also reason to believe that tighter European supplies would result in more US LNG exports abroad.
For more context, European NatGas 1m forward is trading at a massive $48 spread over front-month US NatGas futures – almost 5x its historical peak…
Europe’s energy crisis continues to worsen, and there is no immediate relief in sight as this coming winter could be a cold one.
“This is not the end of Russia’s weaponization of natural gas flows, in our view, and there remain few near-term alternatives for even current reduced flows to the EU – lending [to] ongoing upside price risks,” RBC wrote last week in a note to clients.
June 9, 2022
Natural Gas Update
European Gas Soars After US LNG Terminal Explosion Halts Exports For Weeks
by Tyler DurdenThursday, Jun 09, 2022 – 10:50 AM
Europe’s natural gas prices jumped Thursday after one of the US’ largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals experienced an explosion on Wednesday and has been shut down. A large share of the terminal’s LNG has been destined for Europe as the continent weens off Russian supplies.
Been in the Freeport area all day for an “incident” at LNG facility on Quintana Island. Freeport PD and witnesses say no doubt about it: it was an explosion. 💥 The fire/release has been contained and employees are accounted for. Investigation underway. pic.twitter.com/8wuGEGazb2 — Erica Simon (@EricaOnABC13) June 8, 2022
According to Bloomberg, the Freeport LNG export terminal in Texas will be shuttered for at least three weeks, which will impact 20% of all US LNG exports. In the last four months, 75% of all US LNG exports have been sent to Europe.
“In the last three months, 68% of all Freeport cargoes were delivered into European markets,” said Tom Marzec-Manser, head of gas analytics at ICIS.
Ole Hansen, head of the commodity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S, said the situation at Freeport has upended European gas markets after “calm trading seen in recent weeks.”
Dutch front-month gas, the European benchmark, traded as high as 16% before giving up some gains and trading at 84 euros per megawatt-hour.
After the reports of the explosion, we noted that US natgas was sold due to export halt fears would build supplies on the domestic grid; inversely, EU natgas would soar because of a decline in export shipments.
For those puzzled by the price action, US NatGas’s slump is in response to the prospect that fewer LNG exports would mean more supply domestically, though inversely, it would mean higher prices in Europe since the US has been increasingly sending LNG across the Atlantic to ween European countries off Russian supplies.
Since the incident at Freeport, US natgas prices have plunged 15%.
Analysts at Houston-based energy firm Criterion Research said, “very little information is known about the extent of the damage and how long it will take to repair.”
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/european-gas-soars-after-us-freeport-lng-terminal-explosion
June 9, 2022
Natural Gas Update
European Gas Soars After US LNG Terminal Explosion Halts Exports For Weeks
by Tyler DurdenThursday, Jun 09, 2022 – 10:50 AM
Europe’s natural gas prices jumped Thursday after one of the US’ largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals experienced an explosion on Wednesday and has been shut down. A large share of the terminal’s LNG has been destined for Europe as the continent weens off Russian supplies.
Been in the Freeport area all day for an “incident” at LNG facility on Quintana Island. Freeport PD and witnesses say no doubt about it: it was an explosion. The fire/release has been contained and employees are accounted for. Investigation underway. pic.twitter.com/8wuGEGazb2 — Erica Simon (@EricaOnABC13) June 8, 2022
According to Bloomberg, the Freeport LNG export terminal in Texas will be shuttered for at least three weeks, which will impact 20% of all US LNG exports. In the last four months, 75% of all US LNG exports have been sent to Europe.
“In the last three months, 68% of all Freeport cargoes were delivered into European markets,” said Tom Marzec-Manser, head of gas analytics at ICIS.
Ole Hansen, head of the commodity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S, said the situation at Freeport has upended European gas markets after “calm trading seen in recent weeks.”
Dutch front-month gas, the European benchmark, traded as high as 16% before giving up some gains and trading at 84 euros per megawatt-hour.
After the reports of the explosion, we noted that US natgas was sold due to export halt fears would build supplies on the domestic grid; inversely, EU natgas would soar because of a decline in export shipments.
For those puzzled by the price action, US NatGas’s slump is in response to the prospect that fewer LNG exports would mean more supply domestically, though inversely, it would mean higher prices in Europe since the US has been increasingly sending LNG across the Atlantic to ween European countries off Russian supplies.
Since the incident at Freeport, US natgas prices have plunged 15%.
Analysts at Houston-based energy firm Criterion Research said, “very little information is known about the extent of the damage and how long it will take to repair.”
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/european-gas-soars-after-us-freeport-lng-terminal-explosion
June 7, 2022
Stepan Announces Increase
“Effective July 1, 2022, or as contracts allow, Stepan will increase the price for STEPANPOL® and TERATE® Rigid Polyester
Polyols used in the Americas by $0.12 per pound. This increase is necessary due to the rapid and significant escalation in
feedstock and transportation prices in North America.”
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