Asian Markets

August 15, 2018

Chinese TDI Overview

Will TDI Price Rebound as the Peak Season is Coming?

2018-08-15    [Source:PUdaily]

share:

PUdaily, Shanghai– In July, the downward trend of TDI price in the typical off season was reversed. The bullish sentiments among dealers became stronger as the manufacturers increased their fixed offers continuously. Due to the dealers’ reluctance to sell goods, the price gradually rose. Although there was a short period during which correction occurred as a result of the previous rapid rise in price, the overall TDI price showed an upward trend throughout July.

 

After the exhibition PUChina ended in early August, the price again rebounded sharply. Later, TDI price entered the correction period. At this point, sellers’ mentalities were divided. Some of them proactively reduced price to facilitate sale. Whereas some were cautious, showing less willingness to sell. Currently, price of TDI from foreign-owned manufacturers in east China stands at around RMB 31,000/ton. And price of TDI from Chinese producers stays at RMB 30,000-30,500/ton. Market players’ opinions are widely divided on how the price will move in the future. Next, PUdaily will perform the analysis from several aspects for your reference.

 

Supply side: the following table shows the maintenance plans at home and abroad as well as new capacities that will come onstream in the fourth quarter.

 

Table 1 status of TDI facilities in H2 (in 10k t/a)

Company name Designed capacity Status of facilities
Covestro Shanghai 25 Scheduled to undergo maintenance
Gasu Yinguang 10 Scheduled to undergo maintenance for 1 month starting from August 22
Juli Chemistry 8 Scheduled to undergo maintenance in September
Covestro Germany 30 Scheduled to undergo maintenance in September
OCI Company 5 Scheduled to undergo maintenance in November
BASF South Korea 16 Scheduled to undergo maintenance in October
Hanwha Chemical 15 Scheduled to undergo maintenance in October
Wanhua Chemical 30 New facilities will come onstream in Q4
Sadara 20 Scheduled to be restarted in late August
BASF Germany 30 Operation is unstable in August

 

 

As can be seen from the table, many domestic TDI producers will perform maintenance in and around September. Thus, their supplies are expected to decrease in the future. Besides, some TDI producers in South Korea will shut down their facilities for maintenance in October and November. Therefore, it is projected that the volume of imports from this country will be limited in September and October. It is also worth mentioning that Sadara’s TDI facility is scheduled to be restarted in late August. But it is expected that this will have little impact on domestic market as only a small volume of its exports goes to China each month. Therefore, TDI supply is expected to tighten in the coming months, and manufacturers will have strong motivation to pull up the price. There is high likelihood that they will increase their fixed offers.

 

Demand side: Currently the recovery in demand is not robust. Downstream inventories are still high now as buyers made some purchase from the beginning of July to that of August, resulting in their low motivation to make purchase. This is also the main reason for the recent correction. With the depletion of the inventories, it is expected that rigid demand-based purchase can still be witnessed in the mid-to-late August. Meanwhile, as the traditional peak season (from September to October) is coming, the possibility cannot be ruled out that some downstream manufacturers will increase purchase.

Mentality of market participants: As some imported goods will arrive at the port around August 20, most of the market participants are bearish on the market in mid-to-late August. But they also think the incoming drop in price can be seen as preparedness for the rebound beyond August. In addition, good news has come in that some domestic manufacturers will overhaul their facilities in September. Therefore, market participants are bullish on market around mid-September.

To sum up, correction will be the main feature of TDI market in mid-to-late August. In September and October, the market is expected to bounce back on the back of the slow recovery in demand and maintenance by some manufacturers.

 

Postscript: created by PUdaily, “Everyday News on PU” is a column providing high-quality and original contents, covering the review of PU raw material market, the forecast of future price movement and the operation status of manufacturers’ facilities, etc. Thank you! If you have different views, please feel free to leave a message or contact PUdaily for discussion via Email ly@chem366.com !

http://www.pudaily.com/News/NewsView.aspx?nid=73219

August 15, 2018

Chinese TDI Overview

Will TDI Price Rebound as the Peak Season is Coming?

2018-08-15    [Source:PUdaily]

share:

PUdaily, Shanghai– In July, the downward trend of TDI price in the typical off season was reversed. The bullish sentiments among dealers became stronger as the manufacturers increased their fixed offers continuously. Due to the dealers’ reluctance to sell goods, the price gradually rose. Although there was a short period during which correction occurred as a result of the previous rapid rise in price, the overall TDI price showed an upward trend throughout July.

 

After the exhibition PUChina ended in early August, the price again rebounded sharply. Later, TDI price entered the correction period. At this point, sellers’ mentalities were divided. Some of them proactively reduced price to facilitate sale. Whereas some were cautious, showing less willingness to sell. Currently, price of TDI from foreign-owned manufacturers in east China stands at around RMB 31,000/ton. And price of TDI from Chinese producers stays at RMB 30,000-30,500/ton. Market players’ opinions are widely divided on how the price will move in the future. Next, PUdaily will perform the analysis from several aspects for your reference.

 

Supply side: the following table shows the maintenance plans at home and abroad as well as new capacities that will come onstream in the fourth quarter.

 

Table 1 status of TDI facilities in H2 (in 10k t/a)

Company name Designed capacity Status of facilities
Covestro Shanghai 25 Scheduled to undergo maintenance
Gasu Yinguang 10 Scheduled to undergo maintenance for 1 month starting from August 22
Juli Chemistry 8 Scheduled to undergo maintenance in September
Covestro Germany 30 Scheduled to undergo maintenance in September
OCI Company 5 Scheduled to undergo maintenance in November
BASF South Korea 16 Scheduled to undergo maintenance in October
Hanwha Chemical 15 Scheduled to undergo maintenance in October
Wanhua Chemical 30 New facilities will come onstream in Q4
Sadara 20 Scheduled to be restarted in late August
BASF Germany 30 Operation is unstable in August

 

 

As can be seen from the table, many domestic TDI producers will perform maintenance in and around September. Thus, their supplies are expected to decrease in the future. Besides, some TDI producers in South Korea will shut down their facilities for maintenance in October and November. Therefore, it is projected that the volume of imports from this country will be limited in September and October. It is also worth mentioning that Sadara’s TDI facility is scheduled to be restarted in late August. But it is expected that this will have little impact on domestic market as only a small volume of its exports goes to China each month. Therefore, TDI supply is expected to tighten in the coming months, and manufacturers will have strong motivation to pull up the price. There is high likelihood that they will increase their fixed offers.

 

Demand side: Currently the recovery in demand is not robust. Downstream inventories are still high now as buyers made some purchase from the beginning of July to that of August, resulting in their low motivation to make purchase. This is also the main reason for the recent correction. With the depletion of the inventories, it is expected that rigid demand-based purchase can still be witnessed in the mid-to-late August. Meanwhile, as the traditional peak season (from September to October) is coming, the possibility cannot be ruled out that some downstream manufacturers will increase purchase.

Mentality of market participants: As some imported goods will arrive at the port around August 20, most of the market participants are bearish on the market in mid-to-late August. But they also think the incoming drop in price can be seen as preparedness for the rebound beyond August. In addition, good news has come in that some domestic manufacturers will overhaul their facilities in September. Therefore, market participants are bullish on market around mid-September.

To sum up, correction will be the main feature of TDI market in mid-to-late August. In September and October, the market is expected to bounce back on the back of the slow recovery in demand and maintenance by some manufacturers.

 

Postscript: created by PUdaily, “Everyday News on PU” is a column providing high-quality and original contents, covering the review of PU raw material market, the forecast of future price movement and the operation status of manufacturers’ facilities, etc. Thank you! If you have different views, please feel free to leave a message or contact PUdaily for discussion via Email ly@chem366.com !

http://www.pudaily.com/News/NewsView.aspx?nid=73219

August 8, 2018

Tariffs Starting August 23

Trump To Slap $16 Billion In New Tariffs On Chinese Imports Starting August 23

Completing the latest round of tariffs pledged against China, the US Trade Representative announced on Tuesday (after the close of course) it will impose 25% tariffs on $16 billion-worth of Chinese imports starting August 23. The new round of tariffs completes Trump’s previously disclosed threat to impose $50 billion of import taxes on Chinese goods. The first $34 billion-worth went into effect on July 6th.

According to the USTR statement, customs will collect duties on 279 product lines, down from 284 items on the initial list; as Bloomberg notes, this will be the second time the U.S. slaps duties on Chinese goods in about the past month, overruling complaints by American companies that such moves will raise business costs, tax US consumers and raise prices.

On July 6, the U.S. levied 25% duties on $34 billion in Chinese goods prompting swift in-kind retaliation from Beijing.

Of course, China will immediately retaliate, having vowed before to strike back again, dollar-for-dollar, on the $16 billion tranche.

The biggest question is whether there will be a far bigger tariff in the near future: as a reminder, the USTR is currently also reviewing 10% tariffs on a further $200 billion in Chinese imports, and may even raise the rate to 25%. Those tariffs could be implemented after a comment period ends on Sept. 5. President Donald Trump has suggested he may tax effectively all imports of Chinese goods, which reached more than $500 billion last year.

Over the weekend, Trump boasted that he has the upper hand in the trade war, while Beijing responded through state media by saying it was ready to endure the economic fallout. Judging by the US stock market, which has risen by $1.3 trillion since Trump launched his trade war with China, which has crushed the Shanghai Composite, whose recent drop into a bear market has been duly noted by Trump, the US president is certainly ahead now, even if the market’s inability, or unwillingness, to push US stocks lower has led many traders and analysts to scratch their heads.

Full statement below:   See the full list here:  https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08-07/trump-slap-16-billion-tariffs-chinese-imports-starting-august-23

August 8, 2018

Tariffs Starting August 23

Trump To Slap $16 Billion In New Tariffs On Chinese Imports Starting August 23

Completing the latest round of tariffs pledged against China, the US Trade Representative announced on Tuesday (after the close of course) it will impose 25% tariffs on $16 billion-worth of Chinese imports starting August 23. The new round of tariffs completes Trump’s previously disclosed threat to impose $50 billion of import taxes on Chinese goods. The first $34 billion-worth went into effect on July 6th.

According to the USTR statement, customs will collect duties on 279 product lines, down from 284 items on the initial list; as Bloomberg notes, this will be the second time the U.S. slaps duties on Chinese goods in about the past month, overruling complaints by American companies that such moves will raise business costs, tax US consumers and raise prices.

On July 6, the U.S. levied 25% duties on $34 billion in Chinese goods prompting swift in-kind retaliation from Beijing.

Of course, China will immediately retaliate, having vowed before to strike back again, dollar-for-dollar, on the $16 billion tranche.

The biggest question is whether there will be a far bigger tariff in the near future: as a reminder, the USTR is currently also reviewing 10% tariffs on a further $200 billion in Chinese imports, and may even raise the rate to 25%. Those tariffs could be implemented after a comment period ends on Sept. 5. President Donald Trump has suggested he may tax effectively all imports of Chinese goods, which reached more than $500 billion last year.

Over the weekend, Trump boasted that he has the upper hand in the trade war, while Beijing responded through state media by saying it was ready to endure the economic fallout. Judging by the US stock market, which has risen by $1.3 trillion since Trump launched his trade war with China, which has crushed the Shanghai Composite, whose recent drop into a bear market has been duly noted by Trump, the US president is certainly ahead now, even if the market’s inability, or unwillingness, to push US stocks lower has led many traders and analysts to scratch their heads.

Full statement below:   See the full list here:  https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08-07/trump-slap-16-billion-tariffs-chinese-imports-starting-august-23

August 1, 2018

Tosoh Results

Tosoh Corporation

08/01/2018 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 07/31/2018 22:13

Tosoh Reports on First-Quarter Consolidated Results for Fiscal 2019

Tokyo, Japan- Tosoh Corporation is pleased to announce its consolidated results for the first quarter of fiscal 2019, from April 1, 2018, to June 30, 2018. The company’s consolidated net sales totaled ¥204.4 billion (US$1.9 billion), up ¥14.0 billion, or 7.3%, over the first quarter of fiscal 2018. The increase was attributable to increases in prices for fuel and raw materials, such as naphtha; the resulting rise in petrochemical product prices; and a strengthening of markets overseas.

Operating income also increased, ¥3.3 billion, or 15.5% over the same period the preceding year, to ¥24.7 billion (US$226.5 million). The gain resulted from an increase in sales prices that exceeded the increases in fuel prices and, in turn, improved trade conditions. Ordinary income climbed ¥4.5 billion, or 18.9%, compared with the first quarter of fiscal 2018, to ¥28.1 billion (US$257.7 million). This rise was due to foreign exchange gains resulting from the continued depreciation of the yen. Net profit attributable to owners of the parent company totaled ¥19.2 billion (US$176.0 million), an increase of ¥2.7 billion, or 16.3%, compared with the same period a year earlier.

During the first quarter of fiscal 2019, Japan’s economy showed signs of a gradual recovery. Individual consumption rose amid higher corporate earnings and an improved employment and income environment. The future, however, remains difficult to predict. The global economy, led by the United States, was firm overall, but with continued trade friction between the US and China, political uncertainty in Europe, and heightened geopolitical risk in the Middle East, there is still the possibility of an economic slowdown.

Results by Business Segment

Petrochemical Group

Petrochemical Group net sales fell ¥3.0 billion, or 6.4%, to ¥43.2 billion (US$395.9 million), compared with the first quarter of fiscal 2018. Operating income also decreased, ¥1.3 billion, or 30.9%, to ¥3.0 billion (US$27.2 million).

Shipments of olefin products, such as ethylene and propylene, decreased in line with a decrease in production volume attributable to fiscal 2019 being a scheduled maintenance year. The group raised prices for these products to reflect increased naphtha costs.

Shipments of polyethylene resin in Japan decreased, but prices rose to reflect the increase in naphtha costs. Chloroprene rubber saw decreased shipments due to a decrease in production volume, but export prices rose, driven by strong overseas demand.

Chlor-alkali Group

The Chlor-alkali Group’s net sales increased ¥8.6 billion, or 11.3%, to ¥84.0 billion (US$770.0 million). The group’s operating income likewise rose, ¥3.3 billion, or 39.8%, to ¥11.5 billion (US$105.8 million), compared with the corresponding period the preceding year, primarily due to improved trade conditions.

Domestic shipments and exports of caustic soda and vinyl chloride monomer were strong, and product prices rose because of a revision in domestic prices and improved conditions overseas. Polyvinyl chloride resin product prices also rose because of changes in domestic prices.

Domestic shipments of cement trended strongly upward, while exports stagnated. Methylene diphenyl diisocyanate shipments decreased, but export prices rose, reflecting improved conditions overseas.

http://www.publicnow.com/view/DB324A974938E03CB34CA9F90854D45B5F24E9FF