Asian Markets

March 5, 2019

Epoxy Update

Asia epoxy resin export offers up on upstream gains; but demand hazy

Source: ICIS News

2019/02/12

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Export offers for northeast Asia-origin epoxy resin cargoes are edging up alongside upstream gains, but upside potential may be capped if downstream demand does not recover sufficiently.

 – Epoxy makers margins eroding as feedstocks gain

 – Feedstock ECH supply to tighten on plant turnarounds

 – Seasonal demand in March-May may support prices

This week, some producers were looking to move up, possibly to the tune of $50-100/tonne, their asking prices for cargoes available to lift in late February/March.

This was necessary to rescue eroding margin, sellers said, given that prices for raw materials like bisphenol A (BPA) and epicholorohydrin.(ECH) have climbed in recent times.

Average BPA prices had gone up by more than $100/tonne within a month, closing at an average of $1,395/tonne CFR (cost-and-freight) China on 8 February, according to ICIS data, compared to just $1,250/tonne at the start of the year.

ECH prices have firmed too, as spot availability is drying up in view of various upcoming plant shutdowns in the region, including the 100,000 tonne/year Formosa Plastics plant in Taiwan that will go off-line from mid-February to early March, and another 60,000 tonne/year line in South Korea that will shut from mid-March to end-April.

Epoxy resin sellers are also banking on a typical seasonal surge in epoxy resin requirements during the March to May period, especially from the downstream construction and automobiles sectors, to support their higher asking prices.

Although buying of epoxy resin has been “sluggish” for some time, a producer acknowledged, “downstream users would have to buy again at some point to replenish stocks before the seasonal demand sets in”.

On 8 February, average epoxy resin prices edged up slightly to $2,475/tonne FOB northeast Asia, supported by a bout of active re-stocking purchases in the region before China shut for the extended Lunar New Year holidays from 4-10 February.

Earlier, ICIS data shows that prices had declined steadily, down to nearly $2,400/tonne FOB (free-on-board) northeast Asia on 1 February, from a high of $3,000/tonne FOB northeast Asia a year ago.

That said, it remains to be seen if the anticipated seasonal demand hike would materialise this year sufficiently to warrant sustained increases in epoxy resin prices.

Likelihood that such demand may be derailed cannot be dismissed, market participants said, judging from the sombre mood in various key downstream markets such as automobiles.

Latest statistics showed that China registered a near-3% year-on-year decline in car sales in 2018, and in India, December vehicle sales also fell 3% from the month prior.

Epoxy resin is used heavily in applications like metal adhesives, coatings, construction and automobiles.

Demand would also hinge on how the US-China differences on trade issues would pan out, “especially now that the 1 March expiry for the truce agreement is drawing near”, a trader said.

As long as there is no clarity on how ongoing US-China trade talks may land, an end-user said he will “continue to go slow on purchases” of raw materials including epoxy resin.

Bids are therefore likely to stay muted in the time being, which could serve to dent the budding and buoyant pricing sentiment among epoxy resin sellers, market participants said.

9112DC8DDC1F8681B191424E4A72C1F0.jpg(Top image: epoxy-putty-Sipa-Press-REX-Shutterstock)

Focus article by Ai Teng Lim

https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2019/02/12/10317258/asia-epoxy-resin-export-offers-up-on-upstream-gains-but-demand-hazy/?cmpid=SOC%257CRSS%257Ctwitter%257CFreeNewsFeed

March 5, 2019

Epoxy Update

Asia epoxy resin export offers up on upstream gains; but demand hazy

Source: ICIS News

2019/02/12

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Export offers for northeast Asia-origin epoxy resin cargoes are edging up alongside upstream gains, but upside potential may be capped if downstream demand does not recover sufficiently.

 – Epoxy makers margins eroding as feedstocks gain

 – Feedstock ECH supply to tighten on plant turnarounds

 – Seasonal demand in March-May may support prices

This week, some producers were looking to move up, possibly to the tune of $50-100/tonne, their asking prices for cargoes available to lift in late February/March.

This was necessary to rescue eroding margin, sellers said, given that prices for raw materials like bisphenol A (BPA) and epicholorohydrin.(ECH) have climbed in recent times.

Average BPA prices had gone up by more than $100/tonne within a month, closing at an average of $1,395/tonne CFR (cost-and-freight) China on 8 February, according to ICIS data, compared to just $1,250/tonne at the start of the year.

ECH prices have firmed too, as spot availability is drying up in view of various upcoming plant shutdowns in the region, including the 100,000 tonne/year Formosa Plastics plant in Taiwan that will go off-line from mid-February to early March, and another 60,000 tonne/year line in South Korea that will shut from mid-March to end-April.

Epoxy resin sellers are also banking on a typical seasonal surge in epoxy resin requirements during the March to May period, especially from the downstream construction and automobiles sectors, to support their higher asking prices.

Although buying of epoxy resin has been “sluggish” for some time, a producer acknowledged, “downstream users would have to buy again at some point to replenish stocks before the seasonal demand sets in”.

On 8 February, average epoxy resin prices edged up slightly to $2,475/tonne FOB northeast Asia, supported by a bout of active re-stocking purchases in the region before China shut for the extended Lunar New Year holidays from 4-10 February.

Earlier, ICIS data shows that prices had declined steadily, down to nearly $2,400/tonne FOB (free-on-board) northeast Asia on 1 February, from a high of $3,000/tonne FOB northeast Asia a year ago.

That said, it remains to be seen if the anticipated seasonal demand hike would materialise this year sufficiently to warrant sustained increases in epoxy resin prices.

Likelihood that such demand may be derailed cannot be dismissed, market participants said, judging from the sombre mood in various key downstream markets such as automobiles.

Latest statistics showed that China registered a near-3% year-on-year decline in car sales in 2018, and in India, December vehicle sales also fell 3% from the month prior.

Epoxy resin is used heavily in applications like metal adhesives, coatings, construction and automobiles.

Demand would also hinge on how the US-China differences on trade issues would pan out, “especially now that the 1 March expiry for the truce agreement is drawing near”, a trader said.

As long as there is no clarity on how ongoing US-China trade talks may land, an end-user said he will “continue to go slow on purchases” of raw materials including epoxy resin.

Bids are therefore likely to stay muted in the time being, which could serve to dent the budding and buoyant pricing sentiment among epoxy resin sellers, market participants said.

9112DC8DDC1F8681B191424E4A72C1F0.jpg(Top image: epoxy-putty-Sipa-Press-REX-Shutterstock)

Focus article by Ai Teng Lim

https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2019/02/12/10317258/asia-epoxy-resin-export-offers-up-on-upstream-gains-but-demand-hazy/?cmpid=SOC%257CRSS%257Ctwitter%257CFreeNewsFeed

January 21, 2019

Asia Benzene Overview

OUTLOOK ’19: Asia’s benzene to continue struggling with long supply

Source: ICIS News

2018/12/26

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–A long supply scenario aptly describes the Asia benzene market in 2018, a situation unlikely to change in 2019.

With limited outlet to the US and other destinations, most of the volume produced has remained within Asia, and in 2019 ample supply is expected with new capacity across Asia and the Middle East due to come on stream.

However, a majority of new downstream capacities of key downstream styrene monomer (SM) are also planned to come onstream from 2020 and beyond.

This lead and lag between benzene and SM start-ups is expected to cause temporary imbalances between demand-supply dynamics in 2019.

Based on the current start-up schedule, it appears that benzene supply in Asia and the Middle East will increase by 3.6m tonnes in 2019, while the total increase for SM is expected to be around 2.2m tonnes.

The benzene market has weakened from the third quarter as the US-China trade war escalated.

Spot prices, which were hovering between $800 and $900 per tonne in the first half of the year, crashed to below $700/tonne in the fourth quarter, ICIS data showed.

The temporary truce in the trade war, emanating out of the G-20 summit in Argentina in early December, is expected to buoy the market to some degree into the first quarter.

“Firmer crude futures on the trade war pause should help the benzene market in the near term,” said a trader in Singapore.

Benzene is a base chemical used to make other chemicals like styrene, phenol and caprolactam.

However, market players remained cautious after the downside volatility seen in the fourth quarter.

After all, the pause in the trade war remains temporary with no guarantee of resolution in the near term.

“Demand in China will continue to grow but is hampered by the ongoing trade dispute,” said a producer in Korea.

ICIS Editorial Chart goes here

Meanwhile, the spot east-west arbitrage window, which was not viable for most part of this year, shows little signs of opening up next year.

Demand for Asia benzene from the US remained lackluster in 2018 year with shutdowns at major SM plants.

Sellers harbor hopes that the situation may change in 2019, for if there were less SM outages next year, demand in the US for Asia benzene could revive.

“Spot arbitrage opportunities to the US was limited this year, hopefully that will change next year[2019]”, said a trader in Korea.

Focus article by Clive Ong

https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2018/12/26/10299480/outlook-19-asias-benzene-to-continue-struggling-with-long-supply/?cmpid=SOC%257CRSS%257Ctwitter%257CFreeNewsFeed

January 21, 2019

Asia Benzene Overview

OUTLOOK ’19: Asia’s benzene to continue struggling with long supply

Source: ICIS News

2018/12/26

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–A long supply scenario aptly describes the Asia benzene market in 2018, a situation unlikely to change in 2019.

With limited outlet to the US and other destinations, most of the volume produced has remained within Asia, and in 2019 ample supply is expected with new capacity across Asia and the Middle East due to come on stream.

However, a majority of new downstream capacities of key downstream styrene monomer (SM) are also planned to come onstream from 2020 and beyond.

This lead and lag between benzene and SM start-ups is expected to cause temporary imbalances between demand-supply dynamics in 2019.

Based on the current start-up schedule, it appears that benzene supply in Asia and the Middle East will increase by 3.6m tonnes in 2019, while the total increase for SM is expected to be around 2.2m tonnes.

The benzene market has weakened from the third quarter as the US-China trade war escalated.

Spot prices, which were hovering between $800 and $900 per tonne in the first half of the year, crashed to below $700/tonne in the fourth quarter, ICIS data showed.

The temporary truce in the trade war, emanating out of the G-20 summit in Argentina in early December, is expected to buoy the market to some degree into the first quarter.

“Firmer crude futures on the trade war pause should help the benzene market in the near term,” said a trader in Singapore.

Benzene is a base chemical used to make other chemicals like styrene, phenol and caprolactam.

However, market players remained cautious after the downside volatility seen in the fourth quarter.

After all, the pause in the trade war remains temporary with no guarantee of resolution in the near term.

“Demand in China will continue to grow but is hampered by the ongoing trade dispute,” said a producer in Korea.

ICIS Editorial Chart goes here

Meanwhile, the spot east-west arbitrage window, which was not viable for most part of this year, shows little signs of opening up next year.

Demand for Asia benzene from the US remained lackluster in 2018 year with shutdowns at major SM plants.

Sellers harbor hopes that the situation may change in 2019, for if there were less SM outages next year, demand in the US for Asia benzene could revive.

“Spot arbitrage opportunities to the US was limited this year, hopefully that will change next year[2019]”, said a trader in Korea.

Focus article by Clive Ong

https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2018/12/26/10299480/outlook-19-asias-benzene-to-continue-struggling-with-long-supply/?cmpid=SOC%257CRSS%257Ctwitter%257CFreeNewsFeed

January 21, 2019

China Railway to Europe

China’s Rail Freight Trips to Europe Mushroom, But Must Uncouple Subsidies

Li Xiuzhong
/SOURCE : yicai
China’s Rail Freight Trips to Europe Mushroom, But Must Uncouple Subsidies

(Yicai Global) Jan. 21 — The number of runs of the China Railway Express freight trains to Europe, which started in 2011, has risen rapidly with trade between China and Europe burgeoning.

Beijing-based China Railway Express ran 6,300 cargo trips to its western continental neighbor last year, an increase of 72 percent, official data show. However, the line must now become more market-oriented and less reliant on government handouts, insiders said.

The express ran 6,300 trips to Europe last year, almost equal to the total number of those from 2011 to 2017, with 2,690 returning trips in an over twofold rise from the previous year, per data from China Railway Group

Chengdu, Chongqing, Xi’an, Zhengzhou and Wuhan ran a total of 5,437 trips last year, making up more 80 percent of the nation’s total, while the number of trains in the western cities of Chengdu, Chongqing and Xi’an all topped 1,000.

The China Railway Express has made 12,000 freight trips thus far from 56 Chinese cities to 49 cities in 15 European countries.

Train trips to Europe ballooned last year with the Belt and Road Initiative and a fillip from local governments. The frequency of freight train runs is expected to grow by geometric progression in next three to five years, Li Muyuan, executive vice president and secretary general of the Intermodal Branch of China Communications and Transportation Association told Yicai Global.

Balancing Act

The national ratio of departing and returning trips last year was 3:2, whereas the ratio in Chongqing, Zhengzhou and Wuhan was more balanced.

Though 6,300 trips ran last year, the total transit scale was only equivalent to 600,000 twenty-foot equivalent units, which is insignificant compared with the 246 million TEU of China-Europe sea transport last year, Li added. Thus, the cross-continent express trains have much room for improvement.

Huge capital investments from local governments underpins the swift growth of express trains. It is common for governments to invest to build transit channels and logistics networks via infrastructure construction subsidies, but local subsidies now usually go to defray operating costs, Li told Yicai Global.

Several city governments are committed to attracting goods and expanding the transport scale of trains to Europe. Some have cut train cargo costs to make them lower than sea freight to gain price advantages. The risk of this can be very great, however.

It has led to subsidy dependence for the major domestic and international operators of the China Railway Express, Li told Yicai Global, adding operations will be unsustainable once subsidies fall by the way.

The government should clearly manage subsidies and evaluate their effects, she said.

China Railway Express would not survive without subsidies, which help operators to do business until attaining business efficiency of a certain scale, Wang Guowen, director of the Logistics and Supply Chain Management Institute of the China Development Institute, told Yicai Global. China Railway Express is now developing in a balanced manner.

Weaning Off Handouts

Government subsidies need not be completely eliminated but can be reduced in the future like other subsidies with gradual adjustments and reductions, Wang believes.

The success of China-Europe express depends on whether it promotes regional economic industrial clusters, Wang said, adding that competition between cities is not about the number of trains. If so, this would only be a difference in financial resources, which are ultimately limited.

The key is to form a market-oriented model for China Railway Express’ operation as soon as possible to lead the next stage of the development process and the local industry transformation and upgrading, Wang added.

Editor: Ben Armour

https://yicaiglobal.com/news/china-rail-freight-trips-to-europe-mushroom-but-must-uncouple-subsidies