Current Affairs
September 10, 2020
Danny Noonan at the US Open
‘Caddyshack’ star Michael O’Keefe will caddie at 2020 US Open
September 9, 2020 | 7:54pm
Danny Noonan is going to caddie at the U.S. Open next week.
Well, kind of.
Michael O’Keefe — the actor who played Danny Noonan, the young, impressionable caddie in “Caddyshack’’ — will carry a bag on Monday and Tuesday in practice rounds at the U.S. Open, The Post has learned.
He won’t be on the bag for Ty Webb — aka Chevy Chase. Danny Balin will have to do.
And it won’t be at Bushwood Country Club. Winged Foot will have to do.
Danny will be caddying for Danny — Danny Balin, a 17-year Westchester resident who’s the head pro at Fresh Meadow Country Club on Long Island.
“Whenever I would meet someone and say, ‘I’m Danny,’ they’d go, ‘Danny, do you do drugs?’ ’’ Balin told The Post on Wednesday, mimicking one of the most iconic lines in the movie.
So, Danny Noonan, on the 40th anniversary of “Caddyshack,’’ has a loop at the U.S. Open. Wouldn’t Judge Smails be proud?
The whole thing began when O’Keefe, now 65 and living in Ulster County, penned a tongue-in-cheek piece for golf.com soliciting any player playing in the U.S. Open to hire him to caddie.
O’Keefe, who grew up in Larchmont, caddied at Winged Foot in 1971 and 1972, right before he went west to pursue his acting career. His brother Bill has been a longtime Winged Foot member and is a past president of the club.
“I thought, ‘What if there’ a golfer out there who’s willing to give me a shot to carry their bag?’ ’’ O’Keefe told The Post. “It’s not like I’m going to mess anybody up. I do know the course. It could be fun.’’
O’Keefe’s initial motivation in trying to land a loop was to be able to initiate a donation fund for caddie relief to aid the caddies who were out of work during the pandemic.
When asked how realistic he thought his chances were of getting a bag for the Open, O’Keefe said, “I think it’s absolutely as big a long shot as Carl Spackler winning the Masters,’’ referring to the Bill Murray character who was the mentally unstable groundskeeper in the movie.
Well, next week, O’Keefe will be on the grounds with a golf bag over his shoulder, rubbing shoulders with the likes of Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson, Dustin Johnson and Rory McIlroy.
“In my opinion, Michael O’Keefe is not going to be able to carry a staff bag around Winged Foot,’’ Balin said with a laugh.
Asked if he plans to bring a lighter carry bag for O’Keefe next week, Balin said, “No, he’ll be carrying the full tour bag. I’m going to put him to work.’’
Balin said he DVRed “Caddyshack’’ on Tuesday night even though he estimated he’s watched the movie “15 or 20 times.’’
“I’m going to have to watch it to get the one-liners down so I can give it to him,’’ Balin said. “Because I’m going to be all over him during this whole … stunt.’’
Michael Breed, the former Golf Channel instructional personality who now teaches at Trump Ferry Point, was the middle man to this transaction, reaching out to Balin, his fellow Met Area pro, and pitching the idea of O’Keefe caddying for him.
“I try to take this somewhat serious, so I would never do this during a tournament round,’’ Balin said. “But I was like, ‘Yeah this will be cool. Danny Noonan. Monday and Tuesday.’ It’ll be a fun couple of days. It’ll lighten the mood up.’’
The USGA plans to have some fun with this, making it a social media event on its platforms.
O’Keefe revealed that he didn’t even play golf as a kid, that he “lied at the Caddyshack audition when they asked if I could play and I said, ‘Yeah.’ ’’
As soon as he got the gig, O’Keefe said he went back to Winged Woot and, with help of then head pro, Tom Nieporte, got lessons “so when I got there [to film the movie] I at least had something that resembled a golf swing.’’
Now he comes full circle, minus the powerhouse movie cast.
“I was lucky to be in the same movie with Bill Murray, Chevy Chase, Rodney Dangerfield and Ted Knight, because those guys are comic legends,’’ he said. “They were just geniuses and they were at the height of their power — all four of them. Anybody can see that all I did was just grab onto their coattails and hang on.’’
O’Keefe, though, has gone on to have an accomplished acting career, which continues today — despite the fact that he’ll forever be known as Danny Noonan.
“Actors are always pigeon-holed, and I didn’t ever have a grudge about it,’’ he said. “But there was a part of me that was like, ‘Man, I wish somebody would know me for the other work that I’ve done, too.’ ’’
September 10, 2020
Danny Noonan at the US Open
‘Caddyshack’ star Michael O’Keefe will caddie at 2020 US Open
September 9, 2020 | 7:54pm
Danny Noonan is going to caddie at the U.S. Open next week.
Well, kind of.
Michael O’Keefe — the actor who played Danny Noonan, the young, impressionable caddie in “Caddyshack’’ — will carry a bag on Monday and Tuesday in practice rounds at the U.S. Open, The Post has learned.
He won’t be on the bag for Ty Webb — aka Chevy Chase. Danny Balin will have to do.
And it won’t be at Bushwood Country Club. Winged Foot will have to do.
Danny will be caddying for Danny — Danny Balin, a 17-year Westchester resident who’s the head pro at Fresh Meadow Country Club on Long Island.
“Whenever I would meet someone and say, ‘I’m Danny,’ they’d go, ‘Danny, do you do drugs?’ ’’ Balin told The Post on Wednesday, mimicking one of the most iconic lines in the movie.
So, Danny Noonan, on the 40th anniversary of “Caddyshack,’’ has a loop at the U.S. Open. Wouldn’t Judge Smails be proud?
The whole thing began when O’Keefe, now 65 and living in Ulster County, penned a tongue-in-cheek piece for golf.com soliciting any player playing in the U.S. Open to hire him to caddie.
O’Keefe, who grew up in Larchmont, caddied at Winged Foot in 1971 and 1972, right before he went west to pursue his acting career. His brother Bill has been a longtime Winged Foot member and is a past president of the club.
“I thought, ‘What if there’ a golfer out there who’s willing to give me a shot to carry their bag?’ ’’ O’Keefe told The Post. “It’s not like I’m going to mess anybody up. I do know the course. It could be fun.’’
O’Keefe’s initial motivation in trying to land a loop was to be able to initiate a donation fund for caddie relief to aid the caddies who were out of work during the pandemic.
When asked how realistic he thought his chances were of getting a bag for the Open, O’Keefe said, “I think it’s absolutely as big a long shot as Carl Spackler winning the Masters,’’ referring to the Bill Murray character who was the mentally unstable groundskeeper in the movie.
Well, next week, O’Keefe will be on the grounds with a golf bag over his shoulder, rubbing shoulders with the likes of Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson, Dustin Johnson and Rory McIlroy.
“In my opinion, Michael O’Keefe is not going to be able to carry a staff bag around Winged Foot,’’ Balin said with a laugh.
Asked if he plans to bring a lighter carry bag for O’Keefe next week, Balin said, “No, he’ll be carrying the full tour bag. I’m going to put him to work.’’
Balin said he DVRed “Caddyshack’’ on Tuesday night even though he estimated he’s watched the movie “15 or 20 times.’’
“I’m going to have to watch it to get the one-liners down so I can give it to him,’’ Balin said. “Because I’m going to be all over him during this whole … stunt.’’
Michael Breed, the former Golf Channel instructional personality who now teaches at Trump Ferry Point, was the middle man to this transaction, reaching out to Balin, his fellow Met Area pro, and pitching the idea of O’Keefe caddying for him.
“I try to take this somewhat serious, so I would never do this during a tournament round,’’ Balin said. “But I was like, ‘Yeah this will be cool. Danny Noonan. Monday and Tuesday.’ It’ll be a fun couple of days. It’ll lighten the mood up.’’
The USGA plans to have some fun with this, making it a social media event on its platforms.
O’Keefe revealed that he didn’t even play golf as a kid, that he “lied at the Caddyshack audition when they asked if I could play and I said, ‘Yeah.’ ’’
As soon as he got the gig, O’Keefe said he went back to Winged Woot and, with help of then head pro, Tom Nieporte, got lessons “so when I got there [to film the movie] I at least had something that resembled a golf swing.’’
Now he comes full circle, minus the powerhouse movie cast.
“I was lucky to be in the same movie with Bill Murray, Chevy Chase, Rodney Dangerfield and Ted Knight, because those guys are comic legends,’’ he said. “They were just geniuses and they were at the height of their power — all four of them. Anybody can see that all I did was just grab onto their coattails and hang on.’’
O’Keefe, though, has gone on to have an accomplished acting career, which continues today — despite the fact that he’ll forever be known as Danny Noonan.
“Actors are always pigeon-holed, and I didn’t ever have a grudge about it,’’ he said. “But there was a part of me that was like, ‘Man, I wish somebody would know me for the other work that I’ve done, too.’ ’’
September 1, 2020
Manufacturing Strength
US Manufacturing Storms Ahead: ISM Smashes Expectations As New Orders Soar To 16 Year High
by Tyler Durden Tue, 09/01/2020 – 10:14
Following more rebounds in ‘soft’ manufacturing survey data in Europe and Asia (and LatAm – Brazil Manufacturing PMI exploded to a record in July), both ISM and Markit’s measures of US manufacturing sentiment were expected to continue their v-shaped recovery, and they did just that, when first the Markit PMI printed at 53.1, the highest level since January 2019, followed by the ISM Manufacturing, which smashed expectations, printing at 56.0, the highest since November 2018.
Just like last month, the ISM surge was driven largely by New Orders which spiked from 61.5 to 67.6, the highest level since Jan 2004, and while employment continued to rise, from 44.3 to 46.4, it remains in contraction territory.
Looking across the data, virtually all ISM components improved with the exception of Inventories which dipped for both producers and customers, a sign that destocking is taking place and which is actually bullish for even more future demand.
On ISM, Chair Timothy Fiore said that “The August PMI registered 56 percent, up 1.8 percentage points from the July reading of 54.2 percent. This figure indicates expansion in the overall economy for the fourth month in a row after a contraction in April, which ended a period of 131 consecutive months of growth. The New Orders Index registered 67.6 percent, an increase of 6.1 percentage points from the July reading of 61.5 percent. The Production Index registered 63.3 percent, up 1.2 percentage points compared to the July reading of 62.1 percent. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 54.6 percent, an increase of 2.8 percentage points compared to the July reading of 51.8 percent. The Employment Index registered 46.4 percent, an increase of 2.1 percentage points from the July reading of 44.3 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 58.2 percent, up 2.4 percentage points from the July figure of 55.8 percent.
Looking ahead, Fiore said : “Don’t see why this can’t continue, maybe not as strong, pretty good shape.”
And while the Fed is desperate to average inflation higher, the ISM confirmed that at the commodity level, virtually everything was more expensive:
Meanwhile, unlike last month, when the Markit PMI unexpectedly missed, this time there was convergence between the two series, with Markit noting that the strongest Mfg PMI since Jan 2019 “was underpinned by stronger new order growth as exports rose at the quickest pace for four years.”
The ISM Survey respondents were mixed even as optimism about the future seemed to prevail (except for airlines), although some expressed concerns about the ongoing covid crisis, while others noted that some weakness is starting to emerge:
- “Watching COVID-19 situations in Mexico, Brazil, Philippines [and] Hong Kong. High rates of COVID-19 surging. Currently, lines of supply no longer impacted by COVID-19 related events.” (Computer & Electronic Products)
- “Business is very good. Production cannot keep up with demand. Some upstream supply chains are starting to have issues with raw material and/or transportation availability.” (Chemical Products)
- “Airline industry continues to be under great pressure.” (Transportation Equipment)
- “Current sales to domestic markets are substantially stronger than forecasted. We expected a recession, but it did not turn out that way. Retail and trade customer markets are very strong and driving shortages in raw material suppliers, increasing supplier orders.” (Fabricated Metal Products)
- “Homebuilder business continues to be robust, with month-over-month gains continuing since May. Business remains favorable and will only be held back by supply issues across the entire industry.” (Wood Products)
- “We are seeing solid month-over-month order improvement in all manufacturing sectors such as electrical, auto and industrial goods. Looking to add a few factory operators.” (Plastics & Rubber Products)
- “Rolling production forecasts are increasing each week compared to prior forecast.” (Primary Metals)
- “[Production ramp-up] has been a struggle. We have started and stopped lines numerous times at all 18 of our manufacturing plants due to COVID-19 issues. Surprisingly, our direct suppliers have done an excellent job on shipping ingredients and packaging on time.” (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
- “Strong demand from existing and new customers for our products, stable-to-decreasing input costs for our operations, and record numbers of new business opportunities from prospective customers’ reshoring measures. All trends continuing from the first quarter of fiscal year 2017.” (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components)
- “Capital equipment new orders have slowed again. Quoting is active. Many customers waiting for the fourth quarter to make any commitments.” (Machinery)
- “We are starting to see parts of our business rebound in August, while other parts remained weak. Some of our export business has come back for the first time since the start of COVID-19; however, domestic portfolios remain mixed.” (Paper Products)
On PMI, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit notes, made an interesting observation: while new export orders surged, “new orders and export sales at smaller manufacturers continued to fall, highlighting an unbalanced recovery in favor of larger firms.“
“The manufacturing upturn gained further ground in August, adding to indications that the third quarter should see a strong rebound in production from the steep decline suffered in the second quarter.
“Encouragingly, new order inflows improved markedly, outpacing production to leave many companies struggling to produce enough goods to meet demand, often due to a lack of operating capacity. Backlogs of uncompleted work consequently rose at the fastest rate since the early months of 2019, encouraging increasing numbers of firms to take on more staff.
“Key to the upturn was a jump in new export orders, which rose at the fastest rate for four years, reflecting improving demand in many foreign markets, and benefitting larger companies in particular. Disappointingly, new orders and export sales at smaller manufacturers continued to fall, highlighting an unbalanced recovery in favor of larger firms.
Overall a strong report for the month of August which may end up being a problem for the broader economy as it eliminates the need for an urgent intervention by Congress to reboot the fiscal spending that expired on July 31.
September 1, 2020
Manufacturing Strength
US Manufacturing Storms Ahead: ISM Smashes Expectations As New Orders Soar To 16 Year High
by Tyler Durden Tue, 09/01/2020 – 10:14
Following more rebounds in ‘soft’ manufacturing survey data in Europe and Asia (and LatAm – Brazil Manufacturing PMI exploded to a record in July), both ISM and Markit’s measures of US manufacturing sentiment were expected to continue their v-shaped recovery, and they did just that, when first the Markit PMI printed at 53.1, the highest level since January 2019, followed by the ISM Manufacturing, which smashed expectations, printing at 56.0, the highest since November 2018.
Just like last month, the ISM surge was driven largely by New Orders which spiked from 61.5 to 67.6, the highest level since Jan 2004, and while employment continued to rise, from 44.3 to 46.4, it remains in contraction territory.
Looking across the data, virtually all ISM components improved with the exception of Inventories which dipped for both producers and customers, a sign that destocking is taking place and which is actually bullish for even more future demand.
On ISM, Chair Timothy Fiore said that “The August PMI registered 56 percent, up 1.8 percentage points from the July reading of 54.2 percent. This figure indicates expansion in the overall economy for the fourth month in a row after a contraction in April, which ended a period of 131 consecutive months of growth. The New Orders Index registered 67.6 percent, an increase of 6.1 percentage points from the July reading of 61.5 percent. The Production Index registered 63.3 percent, up 1.2 percentage points compared to the July reading of 62.1 percent. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 54.6 percent, an increase of 2.8 percentage points compared to the July reading of 51.8 percent. The Employment Index registered 46.4 percent, an increase of 2.1 percentage points from the July reading of 44.3 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 58.2 percent, up 2.4 percentage points from the July figure of 55.8 percent.
Looking ahead, Fiore said : “Don’t see why this can’t continue, maybe not as strong, pretty good shape.”
And while the Fed is desperate to average inflation higher, the ISM confirmed that at the commodity level, virtually everything was more expensive:
Meanwhile, unlike last month, when the Markit PMI unexpectedly missed, this time there was convergence between the two series, with Markit noting that the strongest Mfg PMI since Jan 2019 “was underpinned by stronger new order growth as exports rose at the quickest pace for four years.”
The ISM Survey respondents were mixed even as optimism about the future seemed to prevail (except for airlines), although some expressed concerns about the ongoing covid crisis, while others noted that some weakness is starting to emerge:
- “Watching COVID-19 situations in Mexico, Brazil, Philippines [and] Hong Kong. High rates of COVID-19 surging. Currently, lines of supply no longer impacted by COVID-19 related events.” (Computer & Electronic Products)
- “Business is very good. Production cannot keep up with demand. Some upstream supply chains are starting to have issues with raw material and/or transportation availability.” (Chemical Products)
- “Airline industry continues to be under great pressure.” (Transportation Equipment)
- “Current sales to domestic markets are substantially stronger than forecasted. We expected a recession, but it did not turn out that way. Retail and trade customer markets are very strong and driving shortages in raw material suppliers, increasing supplier orders.” (Fabricated Metal Products)
- “Homebuilder business continues to be robust, with month-over-month gains continuing since May. Business remains favorable and will only be held back by supply issues across the entire industry.” (Wood Products)
- “We are seeing solid month-over-month order improvement in all manufacturing sectors such as electrical, auto and industrial goods. Looking to add a few factory operators.” (Plastics & Rubber Products)
- “Rolling production forecasts are increasing each week compared to prior forecast.” (Primary Metals)
- “[Production ramp-up] has been a struggle. We have started and stopped lines numerous times at all 18 of our manufacturing plants due to COVID-19 issues. Surprisingly, our direct suppliers have done an excellent job on shipping ingredients and packaging on time.” (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
- “Strong demand from existing and new customers for our products, stable-to-decreasing input costs for our operations, and record numbers of new business opportunities from prospective customers’ reshoring measures. All trends continuing from the first quarter of fiscal year 2017.” (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components)
- “Capital equipment new orders have slowed again. Quoting is active. Many customers waiting for the fourth quarter to make any commitments.” (Machinery)
- “We are starting to see parts of our business rebound in August, while other parts remained weak. Some of our export business has come back for the first time since the start of COVID-19; however, domestic portfolios remain mixed.” (Paper Products)
On PMI, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit notes, made an interesting observation: while new export orders surged, “new orders and export sales at smaller manufacturers continued to fall, highlighting an unbalanced recovery in favor of larger firms.“
“The manufacturing upturn gained further ground in August, adding to indications that the third quarter should see a strong rebound in production from the steep decline suffered in the second quarter.
“Encouragingly, new order inflows improved markedly, outpacing production to leave many companies struggling to produce enough goods to meet demand, often due to a lack of operating capacity. Backlogs of uncompleted work consequently rose at the fastest rate since the early months of 2019, encouraging increasing numbers of firms to take on more staff.
“Key to the upturn was a jump in new export orders, which rose at the fastest rate for four years, reflecting improving demand in many foreign markets, and benefitting larger companies in particular. Disappointingly, new orders and export sales at smaller manufacturers continued to fall, highlighting an unbalanced recovery in favor of larger firms.
Overall a strong report for the month of August which may end up being a problem for the broader economy as it eliminates the need for an urgent intervention by Congress to reboot the fiscal spending that expired on July 31.
August 31, 2020
Freight Rates Rise
Quick capacity adjustments and surprisingly robust demand have sent freight rates surging
By Aug. 31, 2020 6:00 am ET
Investors in container-shipping companies are having an unexpectedly good year as freight rates surge despite the pandemic, thanks to quick capacity adjustments and surprisingly robust demand.
Shares in several major operators have rebounded sharply. A.P. Moeller-Maersk AMKBY 0.13% A/S’s nonvoting stock, which at its low point in March was down by almost half for the year, is now roughly flat. The Danish company owns Maersk Line, the world’s biggest ocean carrier.
Hong Kong-listed Cosco Shipping Holdings Co., which controls the world’s third-largest container carrier by capacity, and Taiwan’s Evergreen Marine Corp. 2603 6.42% are up about 23% and 32% for the year, respectively, after also recovering from steep selloffs. BuoyantYearly earnings before interest and tax for theglobal container-shipping industrySource: Drewry Maritime
“Ocean carriers got out ahead of the pandemic,” said Simon Heaney, senior manager for container research at Drewry Shipping Consultants Ltd. “It’s a good year for carriers in terms of profits.”
Drewry now expects the global industry to earn around $9 billion before interest and taxes this year, up 41% from 2019. It had earlier forecast a $3.7 billion loss. If shipping rates say high, Mr. Heaney said, he might lift his forecast further.
Container-shipping companies play a vital role in global trade by moving clothes, food, furniture, electronics and much else around the world.
As the coronavirus pandemic unfolded, investors and analysts say, shippers were quick to idle vessels and cancel sailings, buoying freight rates and lifting profits. When demand proved more resilient than expected, they were equally quick to add back capacity—without crossing the line into oversupply.
The overall picture for trade is tough, but improving. The Geneva-based World Trade Organization now forecasts global volumes will fall 13% this year, after previously warning they could crash by a third.
Many shipping companies and their corporate clients expected a much steeper drop-off in demand than actually occurred, said Dave Perrett, co-head of Asian investment at M&G Investments: “They thought it would be absolutely catastrophic, and it wasn’t.” M&G funds hold stakes in shipping companies including A.P. Moeller-Maersk, FactSet data shows.
In the U.S., retail sales topped prepandemic levels in July. Andrian Dacy, head of the global transportation group at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, said retail spending in the U.S. and Europe had been buoyed by government financial assistance to households.
Plus there is the e-commerce boom, he said: Many people stayed home and spent money they would otherwise have used on movies, travel or meals. “They’re online, they’re ordering things, and those things are being delivered and moved to the supply chain,” he said. Trade in medical supplies also surged, Mr. Dacy added.
In the week ending Aug. 28, the spot rate to ship a 40-foot container from Shanghai to the U.S. West Coast hit $3,639, the highest in over a decade, according to the Shanghai Shipping Exchange. A Drewry composite index of rates for eight east-west routes hit $2,251 in the week to Aug. 27, up 60% from a year earlier.
Not all shippers’ share prices have benefited. Germany’s Hapag-Lloyd AG HLAG -1.01% , the world’s fifth-largest container shipper by capacity, spiked to a record in May but is now down 35% for the year. Japan’s Mitsui O.S.K. Lines 9104 1.19% is down by a similar amount. Reversing CourseStock-price performances this yearSource: FactSet%Evergreen MarineCosco ShippingA.P. Moeller-Maersk (B shares)Jan. 2020Aug.-60-40-200204060
The industry is partly reaping the benefit of its distress over the past decade, when low profits spurred takeovers, partnerships and investment in bigger, more-efficient ships. Five players control 64% of the global fleet now, versus 47% in 2008, according to Parash Jain, global head of shipping and ports equity research at HSBC. Greater concentration makes cutting capacity easier, investors and analysts said.
And there is little risk that new ships will flood the market, pressuring freight rates. Outstanding orders stand at about 9% of existing fleet capacity, versus more than 50% during the global financial crisis, Mr. Jain said.
M&G’s Mr. Perrett said tighter environmental regulations would also damp demand for new vessels. Overall, he said, the industry would avoid a return to its earlier, damaging focus on growth.
“There’s no need for one player to be disruptive,” he said. “The focus here would be more about profitability as opposed to market share.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/shipping-stocks-weather-the-pandemic-storm-11598868003?mod=e2tw&tesla=y
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