Current Affairs

December 23, 2024

The Global Economy

Visualizing The $115 Trillion World Economy In One Chart

by Tyler Durden

Monday, Dec 23, 2024 – 05:45 AM

There’s nothing quite like a big chart to really get into the data. In this edition, Visual Capitalist’s Pallavi Rao takes a look at the massive $115 trillion world economy in 2025, along with how it breaks down per country.

Data is sourced from the International Monetary Fund’s GDP estimates for 2025 (except for Pakistan). All figures are rounded and in nominal USD.

Ranked: Every Country by GDP in 2025

The U.S. has been the world’s largest economy for over 100 years, and in 2025 will maintain its lead, at $30.3 trillion.

RankCountries2025 GDP (Billions USD)
1🇺🇸 U.S.$30,337.2
2🇨🇳 China$19,534.9
3🇩🇪 Germany$4,921.6
4🇯🇵 Japan$4,389.3
5🇮🇳 India$4,271.9
6🇬🇧 UK$3,730.3
7🇫🇷 France$3,283.4
8🇮🇹 Italy$2,459.6
9🇨🇦 Canada$2,330.3
10🇧🇷 Brazil$2,307.2
11🇷🇺 Russia$2,195.7
12🇰🇷 South Korea$1,947.1
13🇦🇺 Australia$1,881.1
14🇪🇸 Spain$1,827.6
15🇲🇽 Mexico$1,817.8
16🇮🇩 Indonesia$1,492.6
17🇹🇷 Türkiye$1,455.4
18🇳🇱 Netherlands$1,273.0
19🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia$1,136.6
20🇨🇭 Switzerland$999.6
21🇵🇱 Poland$915.5
22🇹🇼 Taiwan$814.4
23🇧🇪 Belgium$689.4
24🇸🇪 Sweden$638.8
25🇮🇪 Ireland$587.2
26🇦🇷 Argentina$574.2
27🇦🇪 UAE$568.6
28🇸🇬 Singapore$561.7
29🇦🇹 Austria$559.2
30🇮🇱 Israel$550.9
31🇹🇭 Thailand$545.3
32🇵🇭 Philippines$507.7
33🇳🇴 Norway$506.5
34🇻🇳 Vietnam$506.4
35🇲🇾 Malaysia$488.3
36🇧🇩 Bangladesh$481.9
37🇮🇷 Iran$463.7
38🇩🇰 Denmark$431.2
39🇭🇰 Hong Kong SAR$422.1
40🇨🇴 Colombia$419.3
41🇿🇦 South Africa$418.0
42🇷🇴 Romania$406.2
43🇵🇰 Pakistan*$374.6
44🇨🇱 Chile$362.2
45🇨🇿 Czech Republic$360.2
46🇪🇬 Egypt$345.9
47🇫🇮 Finland$320.0
48🇵🇹 Portugal$319.9
49🇰🇿 Kazakhstan$306.6
50🇵🇪 Peru$294.9
51🇮🇶 Iraq$270.9
52🇬🇷 Greece$265.2
53🇩🇿 Algeria$264.3
54🇳🇿 New Zealand$262.9
55🇭🇺 Hungary$245.6
56🇶🇦 Qatar$226.2
57🇳🇬 Nigeria$195.0
58🇺🇦 Ukraine$189.8
59🇲🇦 Morocco$168.6
60🇰🇼 Kuwait$162.0
61🇸🇰 Slovak Republic$152.5
62🇩🇴 Dominican Republic$135.5
63🇺🇿 Uzbekistan$127.4
64🇪🇨 Ecuador$125.7
65🇵🇷 Puerto Rico$122.2
66🇬🇹 Guatemala$121.0
67🇪🇹 Ethiopia$120.9
68🇦🇴 Angola$118.4
69🇰🇪 Kenya$116.7
70🇧🇬 Bulgaria$115.5
71🇴🇲 Oman$111.3
72🇻🇪 Venezuela$110.0
73🇨🇷 Costa Rica$100.7
74🇱🇺 Luxembourg$97.0
75🇭🇷 Croatia$96.0
76🇨🇮 Côte d’Ivoire$95.5
77🇵🇦 Panama$91.7
78🇹🇲 Turkmenistan$91.2
79🇷🇸 Serbia$88.6
80🇱🇹 Lithuania$88.0
81🇺🇾 Uruguay$86.4
82🇹🇿 Tanzania$85.5
83🇨🇩 DRC$79.2
84🇸🇮 Slovenia$77.4
85🇦🇿 Azerbaijan$77.0
86🇧🇾 Belarus$76.9
87🇬🇭 Ghana$75.8
88🇲🇲 Myanmar$65.0
89🇺🇬 Uganda$62.9
90🇲🇴 Macao SAR$59.3
91🇨🇲 Cameroon$57.7
92🇯🇴 Jordan$56.1
93🇹🇳 Tunisia$54.7
94🇧🇴 Bolivia$51.3
95🇰🇭 Cambodia$51.2
96🇧🇭 Bahrain$49.5
97🇱🇻 Latvia$48.2
98🇱🇾 Libya$48.0
99🇳🇵 Nepal$47.8
100🇵🇾 Paraguay$46.8
101🇪🇪 Estonia$45.3
102🇭🇳 Honduras$39.0
103🇸🇻 El Salvador$37.8
104🇸🇳 Senegal$37.8
105🇨🇾 Cyprus$37.7
106🇿🇼 Zimbabwe$36.9
107🇬🇪 Georgia$35.9
108🇮🇸 Iceland$35.4
109🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea$32.6
110🇿🇲 Zambia$31.8
111🇭🇹 Haiti$30.6
112🇸🇩 Sudan$30.0
113🇧🇦 Bosnia and Herzegovina$29.9
114🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago$29.2
115🇦🇱 Albania$28.0
116🇬🇳 Guinea$27.3
117🇲🇳 Mongolia$27.2
118🇦🇲 Armenia$26.6
119🇲🇹 Malta$26.3
120🇲🇿 Mozambique$24.5
121🇬🇾 Guyana$24.5
122🇧🇫 Burkina Faso$23.6
123🇲🇱 Mali$23.2
124🇧🇯 Benin$23.1
125🇧🇼 Botswana$22.1
126🇳🇪 Niger$21.9
127🇯🇲 Jamaica$21.6
128🇬🇦 Gabon$21.0
129🇳🇮 Nicaragua$21.0
130🇲🇩 Moldova$19.6
131🇹🇩 Chad$19.6
132🇲🇬 Madagascar$18.1
133🇰🇬 Kyrgyz Republic$17.4
134🇲🇰 North Macedonia$17.1
135🇧🇳 Brunei Darussalam$16.7
136🇲🇺 Mauritius$16.5
137🇾🇪 Yemen$16.2
138🇨🇬 Congo$15.9
139🇧🇸 Bahamas$15.3
140🇱🇦 Lao P.D.R.$14.4
141🇳🇦 Namibia$14.4
142🇹🇯 Tajikistan$14.2
143🇷🇼 Rwanda$14.0
144🇸🇴 Somalia$13.9
145🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea$12.9
146🇽🇰 Kosovo$11.8
147🇲🇷 Mauritania$11.1
148🇲🇼 Malawi$10.8
149🇹🇬 Togo$10.5
150🇲🇪 Montenegro$8.8
151🇸🇱 Sierra Leone$7.8
152🇧🇧 Barbados$7.6
153🇲🇻 Maldives$7.6
154🇫🇯 Fiji$6.1
155🇸🇿 Eswatini$5.4
156🇸🇸 South Sudan$5.3
157🇱🇷 Liberia$5.1
158🇸🇷 Suriname$5.0
159🇩🇯 Djibouti$4.7
160🇦🇼 Aruba$4.4
161🇦🇩 Andorra$4.1
162🇧🇹 Bhutan$3.5
163🇧🇿 Belize$3.5
164🇨🇫 Central African Republic$3.0
165🇬🇲 The Gambia$3.0
166🇨🇻 Cabo Verde$2.9
167🇱🇨 Saint Lucia$2.7
168🇦🇬 Antigua & Barbuda$2.4
169🇱🇸 Lesotho$2.4
170🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau$2.4
171🇸🇨 Seychelles$2.2
172🇧🇮 Burundi$2.2
173🇹🇱 Timor-Leste$2.1
174🇸🇲 San Marino$2.1
175🇸🇧 Solomon Islands$1.8
176🇰🇲 Comoros$1.5
177🇬🇩 Grenada$1.5
178🇻🇨 Saint Vincent & Grenadines$1.2
179🇰🇳 Saint Kitts & Nevis$1.2
180🇻🇺 Vanuatu$1.2
181🇼🇸 Samoa$1.1
182🇸🇹 São Tomé & Príncipe$1.0
183🇩🇲 Dominica$0.7
184🇹🇴 Tonga$0.6
185🇫🇲 Micronesia$0.5
186🇵🇼 Palau$0.4
187🇰🇮 Kiribati$0.3
188🇲🇭 Marshall Islands$0.3
189🇳🇷 Nauru$0.2
190🇹🇻 Tuvalu$0.1
N/A🌍 World$115,338.3

*Pakistan’s forecast for 2025 is not yet released, so 2024 data is used here.

Second-largest China ($19.5 trillion) will also hold its position, now on a 15-year streak. The top two together account for over two-fifths (43%) of the world’s $115 trillion GDP.

However, there have been changes in the top five recently. Germany ($4.9 trillion) overtook Japan ($4.4 trillion) in 2024 as the third-largest economy. Meanwhile India ($4.3 trillion) passed the UK ($3.7 trillion) as 5th largest in 2020.

All three countries are expected to retain their positions till 2026—when India is projected to first pass Japan for fourth, and then Germany for third place in 2028.

Meanwhile, around the top 10 mark, Australia is predicted to overtake Spain for 13th place this year. And Brazil is expected to make the top eight by 2028.

So…What’s 2025 Going to Be Like?

The IMF expects global economic growth to continue at 3.2% fueled by rate cuts as inflation retreats across key markets in the U.S. and Europe.

Geopolitical risks remain the lurking threat to growth. In February, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will complete its third year, previously a key trigger to Europe’s post-pandemic inflation rise.

The latest Israel-Palestine conflict has already passed a year, drawing in neighbors Lebanon and Yemen, and disrupting key shipping routes.

Meanwhile, Syria remains in focus after rebels overthrew the Bashar al-Assad government in Damascus, ending 24-years of rule.

As it happens we have a whole series dedicated to looking ahead. Join VC+ today to get access to the 2025 Global Forecast Series, filled with experts predictions and consensus for sectors, markets, and economies in the New Year.

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/visualizing-115-trillion-world-economy-one-chart

December 22, 2024

Experts Discuss Potential ILA Strike

Will the ILA strike in January? Experts weigh in.

Industry observers have differing views on the likelihood of a strike, which would add to the logistics hurdles shippers are already facing.

Published Dec. 18, 2024

Alejandra CarranzaStaff Reporte

Dockworkers strike outside an ocean container port.
Dockworkers strike outside of the Port of Houston Authority on Oct. 1, 2024 in Houston. The International Longshoremen’s Association and the United States Maritime Alliance have not yet reached a contract agreement with only a few weeks left before their current deal expires. Brandon Bell via Getty Images

With less than a month before the International Longshoremen’s Association’s contract with the United States Maritime Alliance is set to expire, shippers want to know: Will there be a strike?

A major development in the prolonged negotiations occurred last week when President-elect Donald Trump voiced his support for the ILA’s stance against automation at the ports following a meeting with union leadership. That hasn’t yet led to a new contract, with concerns over another strike growing as the Jan. 15 expiration date for a tentative deal struck in October approaches.

“All in all, the situation points in the direction of another strike,” Lars Jensen, CEO at Vespucci Maritime, said in a LinkedIn post the week before Trump met with the ILA.

A strike would pile on to several other geopolitical issues shippers are looking out for in 2025, including tariff threats from Trump.

Jensen and other logistics and maritime experts shared their take on whether the ILA will strike in January through a series of interviews, emails and LinkedIn posts. Dive in to learn about the negotiation’s sticking points and potential risks.

Editor’s note: Some answers have been edited for length and clarity.

Will Brucher

Assistant Teaching Professor in the Labor Studies and Employment Relations Department at Rutgers University

I think the [ILA] would strike only if there’s really, at this juncture, no possibility of coming to an agreement for either party. I think what’s more likely is that the ILA is outspoken on this issue to remind the [USMX], and remind the public in general as well, that the strike that concluded recently with the framework agreement around wages, just wasn’t about wages — that automation is still an area that the ILA leadership are very concerned about, but also that they’re going to continually assert that their jobs can’t be replaced by automation.

What I suspect will happen, and I could be wrong about this, we don’t know what the future holds, that they will come to an agreement that reaffirms the job protections that ILA members already have under the current agreement that they’re still working under. That agreement might be enhanced with additional language that specifies that whether it’s the use of these partially automated cranes or whatever the other technologies may come, that there will be job guarantees that ILA members will get the right to work and maintain the new technologies.

Mike Short

President of Global Forwarding at C.H. Robinson

As of right now, it is looking increasingly likely that the ILA will strike again in January. Negotiations have yet to resume and both sides have released statements that suggest they are willing to allow another strike. To prepare, we have been working with our customers to develop plans that mitigate supply chain risks in the event of a strike. For some, this has included switching ports, front-loading freight, adjusting inventory needs, or pivoting to air.

West Coast ports are already congested, as many shippers front-loaded freight to receive inventory before Lunar New Year and potential tariff changes, so it hasn’t been as simple as switching back and forth between coasts. We’re watching volume shifts closely to bring forward the best options that keep our customer’s supply chain moving during potential disruptions. If the strike happens, we will be prepared.

Brian Nemeth

Global Co-leader of Logistics and Transportation, Partner and Managing Director at AlixPartners

I would say where we are now it’s 50/50 and every day that goes on, where there’s not a conversation and a negotiation conversation that’s occurring, it increases. But I would say where we’re at now, it’s basically a coin toss.

My understanding from what I’ve heard at this moment is there hasn’t been any major conversations since about November 13-ish, I may be off on the exact date, but let’s say roughly a month ago where this absolute no to automation statement kind of popped through more strongly.

My understanding is there hasn’t been conversations or substantive conversations since, and that’s obviously not very conducive to finding a solution if no one’s talking through.

Peter Tirschwell

VP for Maritime and Trade at S&P Global Market Intelligence

Whether or not the ILA will strike again in January depends on the ocean carriers’ appetite for being in the public eye. In October, the carriers ended up having to agree to a 62% pay increase to the union, and they may be hesitant to go down the same road especially given the possibility that president-elect Trump will back the union as President Biden did.

Lars Jensen

CEO of Vespucci Maritime, speaking on the Freight Buyers’ Club podcast

Photo: LinkedIn

End game as I see it is that the carriers/USMX are going to lose this battle. I think that is more or less a forgone conclusion. The only question is how do they want to lose it? They’re going to have to lose it in a way that makes it the easiest to pass on these costs to the customers. That means it is in their interest that the strike is as long as possible [and] as painful as possible. When this is all set and done, it is easier for them to then go to all the U.S. importers and exporters and [say] basically either the base rate has gone up by ‘X’ dollars’ or ‘let’s introduce a new surcharge.’

At the end of the day, if they’re going to lose this fight, the more visible it is that they [USMX] have been browbeaten by a combination of the U.S. administration and the ILA, the easier it’s going to be for them to force through rate increase to compensate them for this.

Editor’s note: This story was first published in our Logistics Weekly newsletter. Sign up here.

https://www.supplychaindive.com/news/will-ila-strike-january-experts-respond-usmx-negotiations/735862

December 16, 2024

A.I. Now vs ~2 Years Ago: Chemical Images

Skynet keeps getting smarter, better, faster. Below are prompts from March of 2023 in an AI generator (left column), versus the same prompts asked today via Microsoft Designer AI image generator (right):

Merry Christmas!!

December 10, 2024

Alkyl Phosphate Esters Antidumping Update

Preliminary Affirmative Determination in the Antidumping Duty Investigation of Certain Alkyl Phosphate Esters from the People’s Republic of China

On November 27, 2024, the U.S. Department of Commerce (Commerce) announced its preliminary affirmative determination in the antidumping duty (AD) investigation of certain alkyl phosphate esters from the People’s Republic of China (China). Commerce is also conducting a concurrent countervailing duty (CVD) investigation of certain alkyl phosphate esters from China.

Preliminary Dumping Rates 

China

ExporterProducerEstimated Weighted-Average Dumping Margin
(percent)
Cash Deposit Rate (Adjusted for Subsidy Offset(s))
(percent)
Anhui RunYue Technology Co., Ltd.Anhui RunYue Technology Co., Ltd.247.52175.82
Zhejiang Wansheng Co., Ltd.Zhejiang Wansheng Co., Ltd.164.29141.98
ACETO (SHANGHAI) LTD.Xinji Hongzheng Chemical Co., Ltd.182.22135.22
Anhui Shengli Import and Export Co., Ltd.Anhui Shengli Pesticide & Chemistry Co., Ltd.182.22135.22
Anhui Shengli Import and Export Co., Ltd.Ningguo Long Day Chemical Co., Ltd.182.22135.22
Fujian Wynca Technology Co., Ltd.Fujian Wynca Technology Co., Ltd.182.22135.22
Fujian Wynca Technology Co., Ltd.Anhui RunYue Technology Co., Ltd.182.22135.22
Fujian Wynca Technology Co., Ltd.Shandong Yarong Chemical Co., Ltd.182.22135.22
Shandong Yarong Chemical Co., Ltd.Shandong Yarong Chemical Co., Ltd.182.22135.22
Shanghai Iroyal Chemical Co., Ltd.Futong Chemical Co., Ltd.182.22135.22
Shanghai Iroyal Chemical Co., Ltd.Fujian Wynca Technology Co., Ltd.182.22135.22
Shanghai Iroyal Chemical Co., Ltd.Zhejiang Hong Hao Technology Co., Ltd.182.22135.22
Shanghai Iroyal Chemical Co., Ltd.Shandong Yarong Chemical Co., Ltd.182.22135.22
Shanghai Iroyal Chemical Co., Ltd.Xuancheng City Trooyawn Refined Chemical Industry Co., Ltd.182.22135.22
Shanghai Yongxiangshun International Trade Co., Ltd.Hebei Zhenxing Chemical and Rubber Co., Ltd.182.22135.22
Xuancheng City Trooyawn Refined Chemical Industry Co., Ltd.Xuancheng City Trooyawn Refined Chemical Industry Co., Ltd.182.22135.22
Yoke Chemicals and New Materials (Shanghai) Co. Ltd.Jiangsu Yoke Technology Co., Ltd.182.22135.22
Zhangjiagang Fortune Chemical Co., Ltd.Nantong Jiangshan Agrochemical & Chemicals Limited Liability Co., Ltd.182.22135.22
Zhangjiagnag Fortune Chemical Co., Ltd .Shandong Yarong Chemical Co., Ltd.182.22135.22
China-Wide Entity269.60*247.29

* This rate is based on facts available with adverse inferences.
 

Case Calendar

EventAD INVESTIGATION
Petition FiledApril 23, 2024
Commerce Initiation DateMay 13, 2024
ITC Preliminary Determination*June 7, 2024
Commerce Preliminary DeterminationNovember 26, 2024
Commerce Final DeterminationApril 17, 2025*
ITC Final Determination**June 2, 2025
Issuance of Order***June 9, 2025

NOTE: Commerce’s preliminary and final determination deadlines are governed by statute. For AD investigations, the deadlines are set forth in sections 733(b) and 735(a) of the Tariff Act of 1930, as amended.
* If a deadline falls on a weekend of Federal Holiday, the deadline falls to the next business day. 
** This will take place only in the event of a final affirmative determination from Commerce.
*** This will take place only in the event of final affirmative determinations from Commerce and the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC).

Import Statistics

China202120222023
Volume (KG)51,713,54847,871,89253,501,318
Value (USD)118,783,614104,873,45373,791,562

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, accessed through S&P Global Trade Atlas (Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States subheading 2919.90.5050).

Other Case Information

  • The petitioner is ICL-IP America, Inc. (Saint Louis, MO)
  • For general information and next steps, please refer to a list of preliminary FAQs. 
  • Additional case information, including the scope of the investigations, are on file electronically via Enforcement and Compliance’s Antidumping and Countervailing Duty Centralized Electronic Service System (ACCESS). Once you log in, please refer to case numbers: Trading PartnerAntidumping Duty Investigation Case NumberChinaA-570-160
  • To date, Commerce maintains 716 AD and CVD orders that provide relief to American companies and industries impacted by unfair trade.

https://www.trade.gov/preliminary-determinations-ad-investigation-certain-alkyl-phosphate-esters-peoples-republic-china

December 2, 2024

PFA Fall Meeting Summary

Polyurethane Foam Association Fall Meeting Provides Forum For
Issues Including Sustainability And Innovation


Bobby Bush, Jr. Inducted Into Flexible Polyurethane Foam Hall Of Fame

NEW ORLEANS, LA (November 29,2024)—The Polyurethane Foam
Association’s Spring Meeting in New
Orleans brought together people from more
than a dozen countries to discuss issues
affecting the flexible polyurethane foam
industry.


Key industry executives, researchers, EHS
specialists, marketers, and technologists met
at the Omni Royal Orleans for networking
and presentations on foam recycling, process
controls, regulatory developments, artificial
intelligence, and environmental regulation
for furniture.


PFA’s Industry Issues Session provided
updates on end use markets, AI and potential
liability, and regulatory trends in Europe.


In the Technical Program seven on the following day, presentations covered sustainability
certification, reticulated foam technology, equipment developments, new chemical additives, and
research on viscoelastic foams.


Dr. Philippe Knaub of FXI, PFA’s President, recognized new PFA members including Ikano
Industry, Dolphin Pack USA, and Elektrotex, He said that PFA has added twenty-eight new
member companies since the industry emerged from the pandemic, and noted that the
association’s work for its membership is more valuable than ever.

“The contributions of PFA members for more than four decades have established our association
as a credible voice for our industry,” Knaub said. “Our reputation as a resource for sound,
scientific information is vital as we address challenges such as sustainability, reliable testing and
proposed regulations that may affect our business. PFA has proven that cooperative efforts by its
members can be much more effective than any individual company managing such challenges
alone.”


During the conference, Bobby Bush, Jr. was inducted as the 36 th member of the Flexible
Polyurethane Foam Hall Of Fame. The Flexible Polyurethane Foam Hall of Fame was
established to honor the leaders and innovators of the industry and serves as an information
source regarding the individuals and companies who have significantly contributed to the growth
and betterment of the flexible polyurethane foam industry in North America.


Bush, Jr. joins his father, Bob Bush, Sr., as the only father and son ever elected to the Hall.
Bobby Bush, Jr.’s career in the flexible polyurethane foam industry spans nearly 50 years. He
served for decades as a senior executive at Hickory Springs Mfr. (now HSM Solutions),
supervising foam pouring lines and managing environmental compliance operations. He served
four terms as PFA president, and also chaired PFA’s Technical Committee. In addition, he was
the Technical Advisor for the Upholstered Furniture Action Council (UFAC).


“Bobby Bush, Jr. has been one of the industry’s most active and capable advocates,” noted Russ
Batson, PFA Executive Director. “He worked closely with the association and industry
executives to help establish CertiPUR-US ® in North America. This certification program
administered by a nonprofit organization helps ensure that foams used in a spectrum of products
meet exacting standards for content, emissions and durability, and has been analyzed by
independent, accredited testing laboratories.


“Bobby Bush also has represented the flexible polyurethane foam industry before regulatory
agencies and standards bodies including the Environmental Protection Agency, ASTM
International and the National Fire Prevention Association. Thanks to his work, our industry is
much stronger.”


After PFA’s Technical Program, Joern Struckmann of Reticulatus was named winner of the Dr.
Herman Stone Technical Excellence Award. The award is voted on by the professionals in
attendance during the Technical Program. The award is named for Dr. Herman T. Stone, who
served as PFA’s first Technical Director. In 2007, Dr. Stone was inducted into the Flexible
Polyurethane Foam Hall of Fame.


The Polyurethane Foam Association is a trade association founded in 1980 to help educate
regulators, users, allied industries, and others about flexible polyurethane foam. PFA provides
facts on environmental, health and safety issues and technical information on the performance of
flexible polyurethane foam (FPF) in consumer and industrial products. FPF is used as a key
comfort component in most upholstered furniture and mattress products, along with automotive
seating, carpet cushion, packaging, and numerous other applications.