January 9, 2025

Port Strike Averted

Longshoremen reach tentative agreement with ports, shippers, averting a potential strike

By  PAUL WISEMAN Updated 11:03 PM EST, January 8, 2025

U.S. longshoremen reached a contract agreement with ports and shippers Wednesday, averting a potential strike that could have damaged the American economy.

The International Longshoremen’s Association union and the U.S. Maritime Alliance of ports and shipping companies said they had reached a tentative agreement for a six-year contract, a week ahead of a Jan. 15 deadline.

In a joint statement, the two sides said the agreement protects union jobs and allows ports on the East and Gulf coasts to modernize with new technology, “making them safer and more efficient, and creating the capacity they need to keep our supply chains strong.’’

They said they were not releasing details of the agreement publicly to give union members a chance to review and approve the document. The ratification process is likely to take weeks.

In a statement Wednesday night, President Joe Biden said the tentative agreement “shows that labor and management can come together to benefit workers and their employers.”

“I applaud the dockworkers’ union for delivering a strong contract,” Biden added. “Their members kept our ports open during the pandemic, as we worked together to unsnarl global supply chains. Thank you to the carriers and port operators who play an essential role in our nation’s economy.”

The 45,000 longshoremen staged a three-day strike in October. They suspended the walkout after agreeing to a 62% pay increase over six years that would have sent hourly wages at the top of the pay scale from $39 to $63. But that truce was contingent upon reaching an agreement by Jan. 15 over automation: The union worried that machines — especially semi-automated cranes — would replace human workers.

According to a source familiar with the talks who requested anonymity because the details had not been made public, the agreement would give the ports more leeway to introduce modernizing technology. But in a concession to the union, they would have to hire new workers when they do, and full automation is off the table.

Wednesday’s agreement came a day after the two sides resumed negotiations. “This is a win-win agreement that creates ILA jobs, supports American consumers and businesses, and keeps the American economy the key hub of the global marketplace,” they said in the statement.

A strike would have shut down ports along the East and Gulf coasts and would have begun damaging the economy if it lasted much more than a week, economists said.

Automation has long been a contentious issue at U.S. ports. Longshoremen worry that machines — such as semi-automated cranes that don’t need their own individual operators — will supplant human workers. Even if the ports agree to protect existing jobs as they modernize, they could need fewer workers as they get more efficient, meaning the port workforce and the union could shrink over time.

Port operators and shipping companies argue that U.S. ports are falling behind more automated ports such as those in Rotterdam, Dubai and Singapore.

President-elect Donald Trump had weighed in for the union.

After meeting union president Harold Daggett at his Mar-a-Lago club in Palm Beach, Florida, Trump posted on social media last month that additional automation of ports would hurt workers: “The amount of money saved is nowhere near the distress, hurt and harm it causes for American workers, in this case, our Longshoremen.’’ Trump added that he knows “just about everything there is to know about’’ automation.

https://apnews.com/article/ports-strike-longshoremen-unions-labor-91894cf33e3f63762e29cfb55270f0e1

December 23, 2024

The Global Economy

Visualizing The $115 Trillion World Economy In One Chart

by Tyler Durden

Monday, Dec 23, 2024 – 05:45 AM

There’s nothing quite like a big chart to really get into the data. In this edition, Visual Capitalist’s Pallavi Rao takes a look at the massive $115 trillion world economy in 2025, along with how it breaks down per country.

Data is sourced from the International Monetary Fund’s GDP estimates for 2025 (except for Pakistan). All figures are rounded and in nominal USD.

Ranked: Every Country by GDP in 2025

The U.S. has been the world’s largest economy for over 100 years, and in 2025 will maintain its lead, at $30.3 trillion.

Rank	Countries	2025 GDP (Billions USD)
1	🇺🇸 U.S.	$30,337.2
2	🇨🇳 China	$19,534.9
3	🇩🇪 Germany	$4,921.6
4	🇯🇵 Japan	$4,389.3
5	🇮🇳 India	$4,271.9
6	🇬🇧 UK	$3,730.3
7	🇫🇷 France	$3,283.4
8	🇮🇹 Italy	$2,459.6
9	🇨🇦 Canada	$2,330.3
10	🇧🇷 Brazil	$2,307.2
11	🇷🇺 Russia	$2,195.7
12	🇰🇷 South Korea	$1,947.1
13	🇦🇺 Australia	$1,881.1
14	🇪🇸 Spain	$1,827.6
15	🇲🇽 Mexico	$1,817.8
16	🇮🇩 Indonesia	$1,492.6
17	🇹🇷 Türkiye	$1,455.4
18	🇳🇱 Netherlands	$1,273.0
19	🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia	$1,136.6
20	🇨🇭 Switzerland	$999.6
21	🇵🇱 Poland	$915.5
22	🇹🇼 Taiwan	$814.4
23	🇧🇪 Belgium	$689.4
24	🇸🇪 Sweden	$638.8
25	🇮🇪 Ireland	$587.2
26	🇦🇷 Argentina	$574.2
27	🇦🇪 UAE	$568.6
28	🇸🇬 Singapore	$561.7
29	🇦🇹 Austria	$559.2
30	🇮🇱 Israel	$550.9
31	🇹🇭 Thailand	$545.3
32	🇵🇭 Philippines	$507.7
33	🇳🇴 Norway	$506.5
34	🇻🇳 Vietnam	$506.4
35	🇲🇾 Malaysia	$488.3
36	🇧🇩 Bangladesh	$481.9
37	🇮🇷 Iran	$463.7
38	🇩🇰 Denmark	$431.2
39	🇭🇰 Hong Kong SAR	$422.1
40	🇨🇴 Colombia	$419.3
41	🇿🇦 South Africa	$418.0
42	🇷🇴 Romania	$406.2
43	🇵🇰 Pakistan*	$374.6
44	🇨🇱 Chile	$362.2
45	🇨🇿 Czech Republic	$360.2
46	🇪🇬 Egypt	$345.9
47	🇫🇮 Finland	$320.0
48	🇵🇹 Portugal	$319.9
49	🇰🇿 Kazakhstan	$306.6
50	🇵🇪 Peru	$294.9
51	🇮🇶 Iraq	$270.9
52	🇬🇷 Greece	$265.2
53	🇩🇿 Algeria	$264.3
54	🇳🇿 New Zealand	$262.9
55	🇭🇺 Hungary	$245.6
56	🇶🇦 Qatar	$226.2
57	🇳🇬 Nigeria	$195.0
58	🇺🇦 Ukraine	$189.8
59	🇲🇦 Morocco	$168.6
60	🇰🇼 Kuwait	$162.0
61	🇸🇰 Slovak Republic	$152.5
62	🇩🇴 Dominican Republic	$135.5
63	🇺🇿 Uzbekistan	$127.4
64	🇪🇨 Ecuador	$125.7
65	🇵🇷 Puerto Rico	$122.2
66	🇬🇹 Guatemala	$121.0
67	🇪🇹 Ethiopia	$120.9
68	🇦🇴 Angola	$118.4
69	🇰🇪 Kenya	$116.7
70	🇧🇬 Bulgaria	$115.5
71	🇴🇲 Oman	$111.3
72	🇻🇪 Venezuela	$110.0
73	🇨🇷 Costa Rica	$100.7
74	🇱🇺 Luxembourg	$97.0
75	🇭🇷 Croatia	$96.0
76	🇨🇮 Côte d’Ivoire	$95.5
77	🇵🇦 Panama	$91.7
78	🇹🇲 Turkmenistan	$91.2
79	🇷🇸 Serbia	$88.6
80	🇱🇹 Lithuania	$88.0
81	🇺🇾 Uruguay	$86.4
82	🇹🇿 Tanzania	$85.5
83	🇨🇩 DRC	$79.2
84	🇸🇮 Slovenia	$77.4
85	🇦🇿 Azerbaijan	$77.0
86	🇧🇾 Belarus	$76.9
87	🇬🇭 Ghana	$75.8
88	🇲🇲 Myanmar	$65.0
89	🇺🇬 Uganda	$62.9
90	🇲🇴 Macao SAR	$59.3
91	🇨🇲 Cameroon	$57.7
92	🇯🇴 Jordan	$56.1
93	🇹🇳 Tunisia	$54.7
94	🇧🇴 Bolivia	$51.3
95	🇰🇭 Cambodia	$51.2
96	🇧🇭 Bahrain	$49.5
97	🇱🇻 Latvia	$48.2
98	🇱🇾 Libya	$48.0
99	🇳🇵 Nepal	$47.8
100	🇵🇾 Paraguay	$46.8
101	🇪🇪 Estonia	$45.3
102	🇭🇳 Honduras	$39.0
103	🇸🇻 El Salvador	$37.8
104	🇸🇳 Senegal	$37.8
105	🇨🇾 Cyprus	$37.7
106	🇿🇼 Zimbabwe	$36.9
107	🇬🇪 Georgia	$35.9
108	🇮🇸 Iceland	$35.4
109	🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea	$32.6
110	🇿🇲 Zambia	$31.8
111	🇭🇹 Haiti	$30.6
112	🇸🇩 Sudan	$30.0
113	🇧🇦 Bosnia and Herzegovina	$29.9
114	🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago	$29.2
115	🇦🇱 Albania	$28.0
116	🇬🇳 Guinea	$27.3
117	🇲🇳 Mongolia	$27.2
118	🇦🇲 Armenia	$26.6
119	🇲🇹 Malta	$26.3
120	🇲🇿 Mozambique	$24.5
121	🇬🇾 Guyana	$24.5
122	🇧🇫 Burkina Faso	$23.6
123	🇲🇱 Mali	$23.2
124	🇧🇯 Benin	$23.1
125	🇧🇼 Botswana	$22.1
126	🇳🇪 Niger	$21.9
127	🇯🇲 Jamaica	$21.6
128	🇬🇦 Gabon	$21.0
129	🇳🇮 Nicaragua	$21.0
130	🇲🇩 Moldova	$19.6
131	🇹🇩 Chad	$19.6
132	🇲🇬 Madagascar	$18.1
133	🇰🇬 Kyrgyz Republic	$17.4
134	🇲🇰 North Macedonia	$17.1
135	🇧🇳 Brunei Darussalam	$16.7
136	🇲🇺 Mauritius	$16.5
137	🇾🇪 Yemen	$16.2
138	🇨🇬 Congo	$15.9
139	🇧🇸 Bahamas	$15.3
140	🇱🇦 Lao P.D.R.	$14.4
141	🇳🇦 Namibia	$14.4
142	🇹🇯 Tajikistan	$14.2
143	🇷🇼 Rwanda	$14.0
144	🇸🇴 Somalia	$13.9
145	🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea	$12.9
146	🇽🇰 Kosovo	$11.8
147	🇲🇷 Mauritania	$11.1
148	🇲🇼 Malawi	$10.8
149	🇹🇬 Togo	$10.5
150	🇲🇪 Montenegro	$8.8
151	🇸🇱 Sierra Leone	$7.8
152	🇧🇧 Barbados	$7.6
153	🇲🇻 Maldives	$7.6
154	🇫🇯 Fiji	$6.1
155	🇸🇿 Eswatini	$5.4
156	🇸🇸 South Sudan	$5.3
157	🇱🇷 Liberia	$5.1
158	🇸🇷 Suriname	$5.0
159	🇩🇯 Djibouti	$4.7
160	🇦🇼 Aruba	$4.4
161	🇦🇩 Andorra	$4.1
162	🇧🇹 Bhutan	$3.5
163	🇧🇿 Belize	$3.5
164	🇨🇫 Central African Republic	$3.0
165	🇬🇲 The Gambia	$3.0
166	🇨🇻 Cabo Verde	$2.9
167	🇱🇨 Saint Lucia	$2.7
168	🇦🇬 Antigua & Barbuda	$2.4
169	🇱🇸 Lesotho	$2.4
170	🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau	$2.4
171	🇸🇨 Seychelles	$2.2
172	🇧🇮 Burundi	$2.2
173	🇹🇱 Timor-Leste	$2.1
174	🇸🇲 San Marino	$2.1
175	🇸🇧 Solomon Islands	$1.8
176	🇰🇲 Comoros	$1.5
177	🇬🇩 Grenada	$1.5
178	🇻🇨 Saint Vincent & Grenadines	$1.2
179	🇰🇳 Saint Kitts & Nevis	$1.2
180	🇻🇺 Vanuatu	$1.2
181	🇼🇸 Samoa	$1.1
182	🇸🇹 São Tomé & Príncipe	$1.0
183	🇩🇲 Dominica	$0.7
184	🇹🇴 Tonga	$0.6
185	🇫🇲 Micronesia	$0.5
186	🇵🇼 Palau	$0.4
187	🇰🇮 Kiribati	$0.3
188	🇲🇭 Marshall Islands	$0.3
189	🇳🇷 Nauru	$0.2
190	🇹🇻 Tuvalu	$0.1
N/A	🌍 World	$115,338.3

*Pakistan’s forecast for 2025 is not yet released, so 2024 data is used here.

Second-largest China ($19.5 trillion) will also hold its position, now on a 15-year streak. The top two together account for over two-fifths (43%) of the world’s $115 trillion GDP.

However, there have been changes in the top five recently. Germany ($4.9 trillion) overtook Japan ($4.4 trillion) in 2024 as the third-largest economy. Meanwhile India ($4.3 trillion) passed the UK ($3.7 trillion) as 5th largest in 2020.

All three countries are expected to retain their positions till 2026—when India is projected to first pass Japan for fourth, and then Germany for third place in 2028.

Meanwhile, around the top 10 mark, Australia is predicted to overtake Spain for 13th place this year. And Brazil is expected to make the top eight by 2028.

So…What’s 2025 Going to Be Like?

The IMF expects global economic growth to continue at 3.2% fueled by rate cuts as inflation retreats across key markets in the U.S. and Europe.

Geopolitical risks remain the lurking threat to growth. In February, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will complete its third year, previously a key trigger to Europe’s post-pandemic inflation rise.

The latest Israel-Palestine conflict has already passed a year, drawing in neighbors Lebanon and Yemen, and disrupting key shipping routes.

Meanwhile, Syria remains in focus after rebels overthrew the Bashar al-Assad government in Damascus, ending 24-years of rule.

As it happens we have a whole series dedicated to looking ahead. Join VC+ today to get access to the 2025 Global Forecast Series, filled with experts predictions and consensus for sectors, markets, and economies in the New Year.

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/visualizing-115-trillion-world-economy-one-chart

December 22, 2024

Experts Discuss Potential ILA Strike

Will the ILA strike in January? Experts weigh in.

Industry observers have differing views on the likelihood of a strike, which would add to the logistics hurdles shippers are already facing.

Published Dec. 18, 2024

Alejandra CarranzaStaff Reporte

With less than a month before the International Longshoremen’s Association’s contract with the United States Maritime Alliance is set to expire, shippers want to know: Will there be a strike?

A major development in the prolonged negotiations occurred last week when President-elect Donald Trump voiced his support for the ILA’s stance against automation at the ports following a meeting with union leadership. That hasn’t yet led to a new contract, with concerns over another strike growing as the Jan. 15 expiration date for a tentative deal struck in October approaches.

“All in all, the situation points in the direction of another strike,” Lars Jensen, CEO at Vespucci Maritime, said in a LinkedIn post the week before Trump met with the ILA.

A strike would pile on to several other geopolitical issues shippers are looking out for in 2025, including tariff threats from Trump.

Jensen and other logistics and maritime experts shared their take on whether the ILA will strike in January through a series of interviews, emails and LinkedIn posts. Dive in to learn about the negotiation’s sticking points and potential risks.

Editor’s note: Some answers have been edited for length and clarity.

Will Brucher

Assistant Teaching Professor in the Labor Studies and Employment Relations Department at Rutgers University

I think the [ILA] would strike only if there’s really, at this juncture, no possibility of coming to an agreement for either party. I think what’s more likely is that the ILA is outspoken on this issue to remind the [USMX], and remind the public in general as well, that the strike that concluded recently with the framework agreement around wages, just wasn’t about wages — that automation is still an area that the ILA leadership are very concerned about, but also that they’re going to continually assert that their jobs can’t be replaced by automation.

What I suspect will happen, and I could be wrong about this, we don’t know what the future holds, that they will come to an agreement that reaffirms the job protections that ILA members already have under the current agreement that they’re still working under. That agreement might be enhanced with additional language that specifies that whether it’s the use of these partially automated cranes or whatever the other technologies may come, that there will be job guarantees that ILA members will get the right to work and maintain the new technologies.

Mike Short

President of Global Forwarding at C.H. Robinson

As of right now, it is looking increasingly likely that the ILA will strike again in January. Negotiations have yet to resume and both sides have released statements that suggest they are willing to allow another strike. To prepare, we have been working with our customers to develop plans that mitigate supply chain risks in the event of a strike. For some, this has included switching ports, front-loading freight, adjusting inventory needs, or pivoting to air.

West Coast ports are already congested, as many shippers front-loaded freight to receive inventory before Lunar New Year and potential tariff changes, so it hasn’t been as simple as switching back and forth between coasts. We’re watching volume shifts closely to bring forward the best options that keep our customer’s supply chain moving during potential disruptions. If the strike happens, we will be prepared.

Brian Nemeth

Global Co-leader of Logistics and Transportation, Partner and Managing Director at AlixPartners

I would say where we are now it’s 50/50 and every day that goes on, where there’s not a conversation and a negotiation conversation that’s occurring, it increases. But I would say where we’re at now, it’s basically a coin toss.

My understanding from what I’ve heard at this moment is there hasn’t been any major conversations since about November 13-ish, I may be off on the exact date, but let’s say roughly a month ago where this absolute no to automation statement kind of popped through more strongly.

My understanding is there hasn’t been conversations or substantive conversations since, and that’s obviously not very conducive to finding a solution if no one’s talking through.

Peter Tirschwell

VP for Maritime and Trade at S&P Global Market Intelligence

Whether or not the ILA will strike again in January depends on the ocean carriers’ appetite for being in the public eye. In October, the carriers ended up having to agree to a 62% pay increase to the union, and they may be hesitant to go down the same road especially given the possibility that president-elect Trump will back the union as President Biden did.

Lars Jensen

CEO of Vespucci Maritime, speaking on the Freight Buyers’ Club podcast

Photo: LinkedIn

End game as I see it is that the carriers/USMX are going to lose this battle. I think that is more or less a forgone conclusion. The only question is how do they want to lose it? They’re going to have to lose it in a way that makes it the easiest to pass on these costs to the customers. That means it is in their interest that the strike is as long as possible [and] as painful as possible. When this is all set and done, it is easier for them to then go to all the U.S. importers and exporters and [say] basically either the base rate has gone up by ‘X’ dollars’ or ‘let’s introduce a new surcharge.’

At the end of the day, if they’re going to lose this fight, the more visible it is that they [USMX] have been browbeaten by a combination of the U.S. administration and the ILA, the easier it’s going to be for them to force through rate increase to compensate them for this.

Editor’s note: This story was first published in our Logistics Weekly newsletter. Sign up here.

https://www.supplychaindive.com/news/will-ila-strike-january-experts-respond-usmx-negotiations/735862

December 16, 2024

A.I. Now vs ~2 Years Ago: Chemical Images

Skynet keeps getting smarter, better, faster. Below are prompts from March of 2023 in an AI generator (left column), versus the same prompts asked today via Microsoft Designer AI image generator (right):

Merry Christmas!!

December 10, 2024

Alkyl Phosphate Esters Antidumping Update

Preliminary Affirmative Determination in the Antidumping Duty Investigation of Certain Alkyl Phosphate Esters from the People’s Republic of China

On November 27, 2024, the U.S. Department of Commerce (Commerce) announced its preliminary affirmative determination in the antidumping duty (AD) investigation of certain alkyl phosphate esters from the People’s Republic of China (China). Commerce is also conducting a concurrent countervailing duty (CVD) investigation of certain alkyl phosphate esters from China.

Preliminary Dumping Rates 

China

Exporter	Producer	Estimated Weighted-Average Dumping Margin (percent)	Cash Deposit Rate (Adjusted for Subsidy Offset(s)) (percent)
Anhui RunYue Technology Co., Ltd.	Anhui RunYue Technology Co., Ltd.	247.52	175.82
Zhejiang Wansheng Co., Ltd.	Zhejiang Wansheng Co., Ltd.	164.29	141.98
ACETO (SHANGHAI) LTD.	Xinji Hongzheng Chemical Co., Ltd.	182.22	135.22
Anhui Shengli Import and Export Co., Ltd.	Anhui Shengli Pesticide & Chemistry Co., Ltd.	182.22	135.22
Anhui Shengli Import and Export Co., Ltd.	Ningguo Long Day Chemical Co., Ltd.	182.22	135.22
Fujian Wynca Technology Co., Ltd.	Fujian Wynca Technology Co., Ltd.	182.22	135.22
Fujian Wynca Technology Co., Ltd.	Anhui RunYue Technology Co., Ltd.	182.22	135.22
Fujian Wynca Technology Co., Ltd.	Shandong Yarong Chemical Co., Ltd.	182.22	135.22
Shandong Yarong Chemical Co., Ltd.	Shandong Yarong Chemical Co., Ltd.	182.22	135.22
Shanghai Iroyal Chemical Co., Ltd.	Futong Chemical Co., Ltd.	182.22	135.22
Shanghai Iroyal Chemical Co., Ltd.	Fujian Wynca Technology Co., Ltd.	182.22	135.22
Shanghai Iroyal Chemical Co., Ltd.	Zhejiang Hong Hao Technology Co., Ltd.	182.22	135.22
Shanghai Iroyal Chemical Co., Ltd.	Shandong Yarong Chemical Co., Ltd.	182.22	135.22
Shanghai Iroyal Chemical Co., Ltd.	Xuancheng City Trooyawn Refined Chemical Industry Co., Ltd.	182.22	135.22
Shanghai Yongxiangshun International Trade Co., Ltd.	Hebei Zhenxing Chemical and Rubber Co., Ltd.	182.22	135.22
Xuancheng City Trooyawn Refined Chemical Industry Co., Ltd.	Xuancheng City Trooyawn Refined Chemical Industry Co., Ltd.	182.22	135.22
Yoke Chemicals and New Materials (Shanghai) Co. Ltd.	Jiangsu Yoke Technology Co., Ltd.	182.22	135.22
Zhangjiagang Fortune Chemical Co., Ltd.	Nantong Jiangshan Agrochemical & Chemicals Limited Liability Co., Ltd.	182.22	135.22
Zhangjiagnag Fortune Chemical Co., Ltd .	Shandong Yarong Chemical Co., Ltd.	182.22	135.22
China-Wide Entity		269.60*	247.29

* This rate is based on facts available with adverse inferences.
 

Case Calendar

Event	AD INVESTIGATION
Petition Filed	April 23, 2024
Commerce Initiation Date	May 13, 2024
ITC Preliminary Determination*	June 7, 2024
Commerce Preliminary Determination	November 26, 2024
Commerce Final Determination	April 17, 2025*
ITC Final Determination**	June 2, 2025
Issuance of Order***	June 9, 2025

NOTE: Commerce’s preliminary and final determination deadlines are governed by statute. For AD investigations, the deadlines are set forth in sections 733(b) and 735(a) of the Tariff Act of 1930, as amended.
* If a deadline falls on a weekend of Federal Holiday, the deadline falls to the next business day. 
** This will take place only in the event of a final affirmative determination from Commerce.
*** This will take place only in the event of final affirmative determinations from Commerce and the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC).

Import Statistics

China	2021	2022	2023
Volume (KG)	51,713,548	47,871,892	53,501,318
Value (USD)	118,783,614	104,873,453	73,791,562

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, accessed through S&P Global Trade Atlas (Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States subheading 2919.90.5050).

Other Case Information

• The petitioner is ICL-IP America, Inc. (Saint Louis, MO)
• For general information and next steps, please refer to a list of preliminary FAQs. 
• Additional case information, including the scope of the investigations, are on file electronically via Enforcement and Compliance’s Antidumping and Countervailing Duty Centralized Electronic Service System (ACCESS). Once you log in, please refer to case numbers: Trading PartnerAntidumping Duty Investigation Case NumberChinaA-570-160
• To date, Commerce maintains 716 AD and CVD orders that provide relief to American companies and industries impacted by unfair trade.

https://www.trade.gov/preliminary-determinations-ad-investigation-certain-alkyl-phosphate-esters-peoples-republic-china