Current Affairs

November 23, 2022

New Home Sales Surge

New Home Sales Unexpectedly Jump In October, Prices Surged To Record Highs

by Tyler Durden

Wednesday, Nov 23, 2022 – 10:18 AM

After existing home sales tumbled, new home sales were expected to follow suit amid soaring borrowing costs and ever-higher prices (despite building inventories and incentives by homebuilders). They didn’t…

The magical numbers from NAR showed new home sales rose 7.5% MoM (massively different from the 5.5% decline expected) which leaves new home sales down 5.8% YoY…

Source: Bloomberg

The total new home sales SAAR is hovering around the COVID lockdown lows…

Source: Bloomberg

Analysts suggest massive incentive programs drove this surprise jump in sales but median new home prices shot up to a record $493,000!!

Sales in the South rebounded after a sharp retreat a month earlier when Hurricane Ian slammed into Florida and parts of Georgia and South Carolina. The October pace in the South was still slower than in August.

There were 470,000 new homes for sale as of the end of last month, though the overwhelming majority remain under construction or not yet started. The number of for-sale dwellings under construction, however, was the smallest in six months. At the current sales pace, it would take 8.9 months to exhaust the supply of new homes.

Earlier this month, Michael Murray, co-chief operating officer at D.R. Horton Inc., one of the largest US homebuilders, said the company closed fewer homes than expected in the latest quarter due to slower sales, more cancellations and continued construction delays.

Finally, given the total collapse in homebuilder confidence (about future sales), which still has a long way to go to catch down to the collapse in homebuyer confidence, we would suggest real estate agents ‘brace, brace, brace’…

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/new-home-sales-unexpectedly-jump-october-prices-surged-record-highs

November 19, 2022

Demographic Changes and Growth in the USA

Visualizing America’s Changing Demographics Over The Past 100 Years

by Tyler Durden

Friday, Nov 18, 2022 – 08:00 PM

The United States has famously been called a melting pot, due its demographic makeup of various cultures, races, religions, and languages. But what shape does that mixture take? And how has it changed over time?

Beginning over 100 years ago, this video from Kaj Tallungs assesses how America’s demographics have changed from 1901 to 2020. It uses data from multiple sources including the U.S. Census Bureau, the National Center for Health Statistics, and the Human Mortality Database.

A Look at the Total Population

As Visual Capitalist’s Avery Koop notes, the most obvious takeaway from this animation is that America’s population has soared over the last century. America’s population grew from 77 million in 1901 to over 330 million in 2020—or total growth of 330% over the 119 years.

And the U.S. has continued to add to its population totals. Here’s a brief look at at the population in 2021 by regional breakdowns:

And here’s a glance at how some of the population shakes out, across the top 10 most populous states in the country:

Demographic Breakdowns

Diving a little deeper, the country’s demographic breakdowns have also changed significantly over the last 100+ years. While the share of men and women is an obvious near-even split, age and race distributions have changed drastically.

For starters, though birth rates have remained fairly strong in the U.S., they have been slowing over time. This is similar to many other Western countries, and can eventually result in a larger share of elderly people as well as an increased financial cost of subsidizing their care. Additionally, fewer births results in a depleting workforce as the young population shrinks.

The shares of Black, Asian, Hispanic, and people of two or more races have also been growing. In fact, between 2010–2020 the population of people identifying as two races or more increased by a whopping 276%.

Here’s a glance at some of the other demographic growth rates over the 2010-2020 period:

  • Black or African American alone population: +5.6%
  • Asian alone population: +35.5%
  • Hispanic or Latino alone population: +23%
  • White population: -9%

Looking Ahead

Like many countries, a “graying” of the population will become a concern in the United States.

By 2060, it is expected that 95 million Americans will be over 65. But the share of those 18 and under will also continue to grow (albeit at a much slower pace) from 74 million people in 2020 to 80 million in 2060.

Another interesting insight from the Census Bureau is that from 2016–2060, the American-born population is expected to grow by only 20%, whereas the foreign-born population—the share of population who will immigrate to the U.S.—is expected to rise 58%.

True to the melting pot moniker, America’s demographics will continue to change dramatically over the coming decades.

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/visualizing-americas-changing-demographics-over-past-100-years

November 19, 2022

Demographic Changes and Growth in the USA

Visualizing America’s Changing Demographics Over The Past 100 Years

by Tyler Durden

Friday, Nov 18, 2022 – 08:00 PM

The United States has famously been called a melting pot, due its demographic makeup of various cultures, races, religions, and languages. But what shape does that mixture take? And how has it changed over time?

Beginning over 100 years ago, this video from Kaj Tallungs assesses how America’s demographics have changed from 1901 to 2020. It uses data from multiple sources including the U.S. Census Bureau, the National Center for Health Statistics, and the Human Mortality Database.

A Look at the Total Population

As Visual Capitalist’s Avery Koop notes, the most obvious takeaway from this animation is that America’s population has soared over the last century. America’s population grew from 77 million in 1901 to over 330 million in 2020—or total growth of 330% over the 119 years.

And the U.S. has continued to add to its population totals. Here’s a brief look at at the population in 2021 by regional breakdowns:

And here’s a glance at how some of the population shakes out, across the top 10 most populous states in the country:

Demographic Breakdowns

Diving a little deeper, the country’s demographic breakdowns have also changed significantly over the last 100+ years. While the share of men and women is an obvious near-even split, age and race distributions have changed drastically.

For starters, though birth rates have remained fairly strong in the U.S., they have been slowing over time. This is similar to many other Western countries, and can eventually result in a larger share of elderly people as well as an increased financial cost of subsidizing their care. Additionally, fewer births results in a depleting workforce as the young population shrinks.

The shares of Black, Asian, Hispanic, and people of two or more races have also been growing. In fact, between 2010–2020 the population of people identifying as two races or more increased by a whopping 276%.

Here’s a glance at some of the other demographic growth rates over the 2010-2020 period:

  • Black or African American alone population: +5.6%
  • Asian alone population: +35.5%
  • Hispanic or Latino alone population: +23%
  • White population: -9%

Looking Ahead

Like many countries, a “graying” of the population will become a concern in the United States.

By 2060, it is expected that 95 million Americans will be over 65. But the share of those 18 and under will also continue to grow (albeit at a much slower pace) from 74 million people in 2020 to 80 million in 2060.

Another interesting insight from the Census Bureau is that from 2016–2060, the American-born population is expected to grow by only 20%, whereas the foreign-born population—the share of population who will immigrate to the U.S.—is expected to rise 58%.

True to the melting pot moniker, America’s demographics will continue to change dramatically over the coming decades.

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/visualizing-americas-changing-demographics-over-past-100-years

November 16, 2022

Imports Shifting

Los Angeles imports keep sinking as East Coast gains more ground

LA October imports fell 28% year on year, 2% month on month

Greg Miller

· Tuesday, November 15, 2022

A container ship operated by ONE unloads in Los Angeles. (Photo: Shutterstock/Darryl Brooks)

The Port of Los Angeles reported yet another month of falling volumes on Tuesday, as the import pendulum continues to swing away from the West Coast and toward container shipping gateways on the East and Gulf coasts.

Los Angeles’ total throughput for October came in at 678,429 twenty-foot equivalent units, down 25% versus October 2021.

Imports totaled 336,307 TEUs, down 28% year on year.

It was the lowest October import tally since 2009 amid the global financial crisis and the lowest monthly imports since May 2020 at the height of the COVID lockdowns. This October’s imports were down 14% from October 2019 prior to the pandemic.

On a positive note, the huge month-on-month slide seen in Los Angeles in September has slowed. Imports fell 15% in September versus August. October’s imports declined only 7,155 TEUs (i.e., a single shipload) or 2% versus September.

(Chart: American Shipper based on data from Port of Los Angeles)

During Tuesday’s news conference, Port of Los Angeles Executive Director Gene Seroka said carriers “blanked” (canceled) 20 sailings in October, removing about 25% of normal service. An additional 20 sailings have been blanked in November and December combined.

“November numbers will be soft, and so will December,” Seroka acknowledged.

‘We need to get labor peace’

Seroka blamed “the steep decline” on three factors: a lack of a West Coast port labor contract, an early peak season and lower consumer spending on durables compared to purchases during the pandemic.

Both Seroka and Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti repeatedly highlighted the labor issue during the news conference. The previous West Coast port labor agreement expired on July 1.

Seroka said that he has been on a “whistlestop tour” and “knocking on doors,” speaking to shippers and carriers in the U.S., Asia and Europe and “looking to get that allocation back to Los Angeles.” But he admitted that “it starts with getting a labor agreement … where they can feel that certainty of the cargo flow and getting to market on time.”

Garcetti stressed “we need to get labor peace and an agreement done.” However, he insisted “there will not be a strike. I don’t say this as someone trying to market [Los Angeles], but the remaining issues are so much more minor than in past years when we’ve been able to resolve this.”

Regarding the cargo shift to the East Coast and the Port of New York/New Jersey recently unseating Los Angeles as America’s busiest port, Seroka said, “We’ve been in the No. 1 position here for 22 consecutive years, and one or two months [in second place] is not going to create a trend. Our dwell times have improved and the ship backlog is nearly gone. We’re eager to ramp volume back up.”

Long Beach month-on-month decline worse than LA’s

Declines in Los Angeles were mirrored in the neighboring Port of Long Beach, highlighting the pressures facing West Coast ports.

On Thursday, Long Beach reported a 24% year-on-year drop in imports to 293,924 TEUs. It was the port’s lowest import number in any month since April 2020 at the beginning of the pandemic. It was Long Beach’s lowest import total for the month of October since 2012 and was down 13% from October 2019, pre-pandemic.

(Chart: American Shipper based on data from Port of Long Beach)

October imports sank 48,747 TEUs or 14% in October versus September, a much steeper month-on-month decline than in Los Angeles.

East Coast ports take more market share

The import picture at East and Gulf Coast ports remains in stark contrast to the situation at West Coast ports. These ports are still near their all-time highs.

On Monday, Savannah, Georgia, reported October imports of 263,828 TEUs, its second best monthly total ever behind the record reached in August. It was the port’s best-ever October for imports, up 2% year on year and up 32% from October 2019, pre-COVID.

(Chart: American Shipper based on data from Georgia Ports Authority)

Savannah posted an increase of 53,461 TEUs or 25% in October versus September, when imports were depressed by the Hurricane Ian closure.

In its monthly release in October, the port said it expected to clear its anchorages by the end of November. That is proving too optimistic: As of Tuesday, there were still 33 container vessels at anchor off the coast of Georgia.

The Port of Charleston in South Carolina also reported its October throughput on Monday. Loaded imports came in at 121,305 TEUs, up 13% year on year, 7% month on month and 27% versus October 2019, pre-pandemic. It was Charleston’s best October for imports ever and its fifth-highest monthly import total. 

(Chart: American Shipper based on data from South Carolina Ports Authority)

As a result of higher demand and greater congestion, spot rates to the East Coast have not fallen as fast as rates to the West Coast over the past six months. Blue line: Shanghai-Los Angeles. Green line: Shanghai-New York (Chart: FreightWaves SONAR)

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/los-angeles-imports-keep-sinking-as-east-coast-gains-more-ground?j=219012&sfmc_sub=63552105&l=256_HTML&u=4501507&mid=514011755&jb=19008&sfmc_id=63552105

November 16, 2022

Imports Shifting

Los Angeles imports keep sinking as East Coast gains more ground

LA October imports fell 28% year on year, 2% month on month

Greg Miller

· Tuesday, November 15, 2022

A container ship operated by ONE unloads in Los Angeles. (Photo: Shutterstock/Darryl Brooks)

The Port of Los Angeles reported yet another month of falling volumes on Tuesday, as the import pendulum continues to swing away from the West Coast and toward container shipping gateways on the East and Gulf coasts.

Los Angeles’ total throughput for October came in at 678,429 twenty-foot equivalent units, down 25% versus October 2021.

Imports totaled 336,307 TEUs, down 28% year on year.

It was the lowest October import tally since 2009 amid the global financial crisis and the lowest monthly imports since May 2020 at the height of the COVID lockdowns. This October’s imports were down 14% from October 2019 prior to the pandemic.

On a positive note, the huge month-on-month slide seen in Los Angeles in September has slowed. Imports fell 15% in September versus August. October’s imports declined only 7,155 TEUs (i.e., a single shipload) or 2% versus September.

(Chart: American Shipper based on data from Port of Los Angeles)

During Tuesday’s news conference, Port of Los Angeles Executive Director Gene Seroka said carriers “blanked” (canceled) 20 sailings in October, removing about 25% of normal service. An additional 20 sailings have been blanked in November and December combined.

“November numbers will be soft, and so will December,” Seroka acknowledged.

‘We need to get labor peace’

Seroka blamed “the steep decline” on three factors: a lack of a West Coast port labor contract, an early peak season and lower consumer spending on durables compared to purchases during the pandemic.

Both Seroka and Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti repeatedly highlighted the labor issue during the news conference. The previous West Coast port labor agreement expired on July 1.

Seroka said that he has been on a “whistlestop tour” and “knocking on doors,” speaking to shippers and carriers in the U.S., Asia and Europe and “looking to get that allocation back to Los Angeles.” But he admitted that “it starts with getting a labor agreement … where they can feel that certainty of the cargo flow and getting to market on time.”

Garcetti stressed “we need to get labor peace and an agreement done.” However, he insisted “there will not be a strike. I don’t say this as someone trying to market [Los Angeles], but the remaining issues are so much more minor than in past years when we’ve been able to resolve this.”

Regarding the cargo shift to the East Coast and the Port of New York/New Jersey recently unseating Los Angeles as America’s busiest port, Seroka said, “We’ve been in the No. 1 position here for 22 consecutive years, and one or two months [in second place] is not going to create a trend. Our dwell times have improved and the ship backlog is nearly gone. We’re eager to ramp volume back up.”

Long Beach month-on-month decline worse than LA’s

Declines in Los Angeles were mirrored in the neighboring Port of Long Beach, highlighting the pressures facing West Coast ports.

On Thursday, Long Beach reported a 24% year-on-year drop in imports to 293,924 TEUs. It was the port’s lowest import number in any month since April 2020 at the beginning of the pandemic. It was Long Beach’s lowest import total for the month of October since 2012 and was down 13% from October 2019, pre-pandemic.

(Chart: American Shipper based on data from Port of Long Beach)

October imports sank 48,747 TEUs or 14% in October versus September, a much steeper month-on-month decline than in Los Angeles.

East Coast ports take more market share

The import picture at East and Gulf Coast ports remains in stark contrast to the situation at West Coast ports. These ports are still near their all-time highs.

On Monday, Savannah, Georgia, reported October imports of 263,828 TEUs, its second best monthly total ever behind the record reached in August. It was the port’s best-ever October for imports, up 2% year on year and up 32% from October 2019, pre-COVID.

(Chart: American Shipper based on data from Georgia Ports Authority)

Savannah posted an increase of 53,461 TEUs or 25% in October versus September, when imports were depressed by the Hurricane Ian closure.

In its monthly release in October, the port said it expected to clear its anchorages by the end of November. That is proving too optimistic: As of Tuesday, there were still 33 container vessels at anchor off the coast of Georgia.

The Port of Charleston in South Carolina also reported its October throughput on Monday. Loaded imports came in at 121,305 TEUs, up 13% year on year, 7% month on month and 27% versus October 2019, pre-pandemic. It was Charleston’s best October for imports ever and its fifth-highest monthly import total. 

(Chart: American Shipper based on data from South Carolina Ports Authority)

As a result of higher demand and greater congestion, spot rates to the East Coast have not fallen as fast as rates to the West Coast over the past six months. Blue line: Shanghai-Los Angeles. Green line: Shanghai-New York (Chart: FreightWaves SONAR)

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/los-angeles-imports-keep-sinking-as-east-coast-gains-more-ground?j=219012&sfmc_sub=63552105&l=256_HTML&u=4501507&mid=514011755&jb=19008&sfmc_id=63552105