March 22, 2026

China Responds to Record Trade Surplus

China vows more open economy in bid to boost confidence

ByLiam Mo and Ryan Woo

March 22 2026 – 8:00am

China has faced tensions with major trading partners over its record $A1.7 trillion trade surplus. ‌ Photo: EPA PHOTO

Chinese Premier Li Qiang has pledged to further ‌open up the economy and fully implement national treatment for foreign enterprises ‌as the country seeks to reassure the outside world amid rising global trade ‌tensions.

China will import more high-quality foreign goods and work with all parties to promote optimised and balanced trade development ‌and expand the global trade pie, Li told the China Development Forum in Beijing, ‌state media ‌reported on Sunday.

The annual ⁠two-day forum, which concludes on Monday, allows Beijing to lay out its economic vision and investment opportunities to foreign business leaders, Chinese officials, economists and academics.

This year’s gathering comes as the world’s second-largest economy faces rising tensions with major trading partners over 2025’s record $US1.2 ($A1.7) trillion trade surplus. ‌

Premier Li Qiang says China is committed to being a “harbour of ​stability” for the world economy. (EPA PHOTO)

Challenges for Beijing are aplenty, including deflecting concerns from an increasing number of global capitals about China’s trade practices and overcapacity, ‌as well as ‌their overreliance on key Chinese ⁠products.

While Li’s speech did not appear to directly mention the surplus, his pledges indicate an awareness ​that the issue could disrupt international relations at a time when China has reached a temporary truce with the US on trade. 

US President Donald Trump last week postponed a trip to Beijing to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping due to the Iran war, delaying an effort to ease tensions between the world’s two biggest economies.

In a separate speech at the forum, China’s central bank governor Pan Gongsheng also sought to alleviate concerns surrounding the trade surplus.

“Analysing global economic imbalances requires ⁠looking not only at trade in goods but also services, and not only at ‌the current account ​but also the financial account,” Pan said, according to a transcript of his speech published by the People’s Bank of China, adding that China is the ​country with the largest ‌goods surplus but also the largest services deficit.

China has no need and no intention to gain trade competitive advantage through currency depreciation, Pan said.

Senior executives ​attending include those from Apple, Samsung Electronics, Volkswagen, chipmaker Broadcom Inc, industrial conglomerate Siemens, chemical producer BASF and pharmaceutical firm Novartis.

There were no ​Japanese ​company executives on the guest list on the forum’s ‌website.

said ‌foreign firms would be treated in the same way as domestic ones, allowing enterprises from all countries to develop with confidence and realise their ambitions in China.

In a separate meeting, Commerce Minister Wang Wentao told business leaders from a US pharmaceutical trade group and executives from five major multinational drug companies that China would strengthen intellectual property protection and improve policy transparency.

Australian Associated Press

https://www.braidwoodtimes.com.au/story/9204553/china-vows-more-open-economy-in-bid-to-boost-confidence

March 22, 2026

IEEPA Duties Refund System

CBP has provided another update to the U.S. Court of International Trade on the development of its new ACE-based refund system for IEEPA duties, known as CAPE (Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries).

While progress is being made, the system is still under development and not yet ready for deployment.

Latest Development Status

As of March 19, CBP reports the following progress:

• Claim Portal: 73% complete (testing underway)
• Mass Processing: 45% complete (validations and tracking in development)
• Review & Liquidation/Reliquidation: 80% complete (now in testing phase)
• Refund Processing: 63% complete (including refund consolidation functionality)

According to CBP, the system is now moving into more advanced testing phases, which are required before it can go live.

What This Means for Importers

Once operational, CAPE will allow importers and brokers to:

• Submit refund requests directly through a new ACE portal interface
• Have IEEPA tariffs automatically removed and duties recalculated
• Receive consolidated refunds at the importer level, including applicable interest

CBP also confirmed it is building functionality to track processing history and validate entries, which may impact which entries are eligible in early phases of the rollout.

Key Takeaway

Although progress continues, this update confirms that the refund system is still several weeks away from being fully operational.

In the meantime, importers should continue preparing by:

• Reviewing entries that may be eligible for refunds
• Ensuring ACE accounts are properly configured
• Completing ACH refund setup to avoid delays once payments begin

March 19, 2026

Push Back

Small businesses are pushing back against private equity

Story by Michael Sasso and Saijel Kishan

(Bloomberg Businessweek) — Jay Cunningham says he’s fielded hundreds of calls and emails over the years from private equity firms poking around his Atlanta-area plumbing business. He wagers he could fetch tens of millions of dollars for Superior Plumbing, freeing up time for him to see his grandkids, say, or travel more to New York. But Cunningham refuses to make a deal with a buyout firm. Going from independent to PE-owned, he says, would be bad for his employees—including several of his adult children—as well as the wider community. “I’ve resisted selling, because of the people that work for me,” Cunningham, 64, says, adding that shoppers, too, are starting to boycott PE-backed companies if they’re aware the ownership has changed. They understand “that when these firms are getting gobbled up, it’s less favorable for the customer.”

For at least a decade, private equity has been encroaching on America’s mom and pop businesses, the backbone of the US economy, scooping up independent roofing contractors, veterinary practices, health clinics and other operators at a rapid clip. Now a PE pushback is brewing among small-business owners such as Cunningham, who are increasingly refusing to take part—and making sure everybody knows it, loudly touting their antibuyout stances and locally owned credentials.

Cunningham’s Superior Plumbing, for instance, has been advertising on electronic billboards across metro Atlanta that it’s “Still Locally Owned & Operated.” (It might as well read, “We’re Not Private Equity.”) In central Florida, Next Dimension Construction & Roofing posted a sleek video on social media warning about PE-owned businesses “run by investors who’ve never set foot in your neighborhood.” Some smaller-scale financiers see an opportunity in the backlash. Mark Peterson, a self-described “anti-PE” investor, buys minority stakes in small landscape and heavy construction businesses to help them stay independent without needed backing from new-to-the-sector investors who parachute in from faraway finance hubs, wearing suits to the worksite. “Boots before spreadsheets,” says Peterson, owner of Blue Collar CFOs in  Idaho.

Spanning HVAC contractors in Texas and snow plow operators in Illinois to pest control businesses in New Jersey and electricians in Ohio, owners are increasingly sounding the alarm against PE, warning that buyout firms’ cost-cutting and debt-heavy deals are hollowing out the US’s small-business sector. Resistance to buyout deals has existed to some degree ever since Wall Street started invading Main Street with its typical PE playbook: Buy companies in fragmented industries, consolidate them in a “roll-up” strategy, improve their cash flow and sell them for a profit in a few years. But now the opposition appears to be intensifying, especially as baby boomer business owners prepare to sell their homegrown companies in what’s been dubbed an impending “silver tsunami.”

Roughly a quarter of small-business owners in the US are 65 years or older. As they prepare to retire, more than a million viable small and midsize companies will be up for sale by 2035, together worth as much as $5 trillion, according to a February report by the McKinsey Institute for Economic Mobility. These “owners have put a lot of sweat equity into their businesses. It’s part of their identity,” says Michael Strain, a director of economic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank. So when PE comes calling, “there’s definitely a backlash.”

At the same time, the spread of software that digitizes scheduling, billing and customer service for even the most niche sectors has opened the door for PE firms to enter markets beyond health care and housing, where they already hold large positions. For instance, traffic-flagging companies, which help wave motorists through road projects, are seeing a surge of PE interest in the past two years. “We get notices every week that another firm has been acquired,” says Stacy Tetschner, chief executive officer of the American Traffic Safety Services Association, a Virginia-based trade group. Buyouts have been so hot in the landscaping industry that trade magazine Landscape Management introduced an annual mergers and acquisitions scorecard edition a year ago, editor-in-chief Scott Hollister says. 

Software vendor ServiceTitan Inc., which has roughly doubled its revenue since 2023, to almost $1 billion, promotes “hypergrowth” opportunities for PE firms focusing on the trades. (ServiceTitan, based just outside of Los Angeles, didn’t respond to requests for comment.) Putting a recently acquired small business on such a software platform, which might let the new owner tap virtual customer service agents and automate scheduling, is usually one of PE’s first moves, says Robert Tymowski, an investment banker at Livingstone Partners LLC in Chicago. Home service companies never had big numbers of back-office staff, but they’re likely to shrink further with the growth of artificial intelligence, says Terry Tillman, a software analyst at Truist Securities Inc. in Atlanta. “It is a selling point,” he says. “Do more with less.”

In fact, going digital is such a big part of the PE playbook that customers mistakenly assumed Yossi Wachtel had taken a buyout after he upgraded the systems at his plumbing business in the Los Angeles area. Wachtel added branded trucks, introduced a digital scheduling system and began sharing technicians’ bios and photos with clients before visits, all in a bid to distance his company from the old caricature of a plumber wearing sagging pants exposing his backside. But those improvements backfired when a customer replied to a maintenance follow-up message asking to be removed from his list because they didn’t “do business with private equity owned companies,” says Wachtel, founder of Monkey Wrench Plumbing, Heating, Air & Electric. Now he instructs technicians to emphasize the operation’s family ownership whenever they’re on a job.

Supporters of private equity are quick to point out the benefits of the industry’s model. Private ownership can bring in capital, helping to strengthen businesses and create jobs; it can also help companies innovate and modernize. Some PE firms today even encourage the small-business founder to keep a minority stake in the company, hoping to preserve its culture. Buyouts in businesses worth $100 million or less totaled $89 billion last year, up 56% since 2015, according to data firm PitchBook. Will Dunham, president of the American Investment Council, an advocacy group for the private equity industry, says buyout firms are a key driver of growth for small and midsize businesses in the US. “Research shows that PE-backed businesses consistently boast higher wages and benefits, more job creation and stronger revenue than their non-PE-backed peers,” he says.

But critics point to the darker side: higher prices for customers, a singular focus on the bottom line, potential layoffs, less benefit to the community. In the New Orleans area, small-business owner Craig Jacomine has been encouraging other operators to consider local partnerships to help them become more streamlined and professional instead of selling to private equity, especially after seeing the fallout firsthand at competitors who made deals: a loss of control, higher debt leverage and payout structures that can limit what sellers ultimately get if they don’t meet performance targets.

“If we keep going down this route,” says Jacomine, who says he turns down nonstop calls from buyout firms looking to acquire his electric generator company, “everyone is going to be buying from one company—and that’s it.”

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/small-businesses-are-pushing-back-against-private-equity/ar-AA1YMfrW

Beware “Another bite of the apple!”

Editor

March 15, 2026

European Polyol Analysis

Europe’s Polyether Polyol Industry: Can It Withstand Another Market Shock?

PUdaily | Updated: March 6, 2026

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has collided with a European polyol industry already operating under severe structural pressure, squeezed by low-priced Asian imports, shuttered domestic capacity, and energy costs far above those faced by competitors in Asia or the Middle East. The market, in the words of one participant this week, is “muy nervioso.”

MARKET SNAPSHOT — 5 MARCH 2026

PRICE TRAJECTORY: TWELVE MONTHS OF STRUCTURAL PRESSURE

The chart below captures the industry’s recent price trajectory. Spot prices for flexible slabstock polyol in Western Europe opened March 2025 at €1,275/t and rallied sharply to €1,495/t in mid-April on seasonal restocking. Prices then declined steadily, falling nearly 29% to a trough between €1,000 and €1,065/t by early October, a level at which most non-integrated European producers operate at very tight margins.

Chart 1 — Flexible Slabstock Polyol spot price (mid-range), Western Europe, Mar 2025–Mar 2026. 

Source: PUdaily price assessments.

THE INDUSTRY BEFORE THE CRISIS: ALREADY UNDER STRUCTURAL PRESSURE

Before a single missile was launched or a tanker rerouted, the European polyether polyol sector was already facing significant structural disadvantages that years of industry lobbying had failed to resolve. Understanding this baseline is essential to explaining why the current crisis may represent more than a temporary disruption.

• Energy costs: a structural disadvantage

European chemical producers have operated with a persistent energy cost disadvantage compared with global peers. Throughout 2024 and 2025, gas prices in Europe remained several times higher than in the United States. Data from the European Chemical Industry Council (Cefic) indicate that at the start of 2025, European gas prices were approximately 3.3 times higher than those in the US.

For an energy-intensive process such as polyether polyol production, which requires propylene oxide feedstock and significant utilities for reactor temperature control, energy pricing is not a marginal cost factor. It represents a structural competitive constraint that compounds whenever feedstock costs increase.

• The Asian import ceiling

Trade statistics also illustrate growing competitive pressure. EU customs data show that between 2023 and 2025 import volumes increased while average unit values declined. The practical result is a price ceiling on commodity grades of polyether polyols.

European producers cannot sustainably price above the landed cost of imported Asian material, yet their production costs frequently exceed that level at non-integrated sites. This dynamic has placed persistent downward pressure on margins.

2025: the year of capacity rationalisation

The market response to this structural squeeze has been a wave of closures and production rationalisations that have significantly reduced Europe’s shock-absorption capacity.

Dow Chemical confirmed the shutdown of its Tertre (Belgium) polyols facility, representing approximately 94,000 t/year of commodity-grade capacity, citing energy costs, regulatory pressures, and sustained import competition. The site is expected to cease operations by the end of March 2026.

INEOS closed propylene oxide and propylene glycol production at its Cologne site on an indefinite basis, signalling a structural adjustment rather than a temporary market response.

LyondellBasell and Covestro also confirmed the permanent closure of the PO/SM “PO11” unit at Maasvlakte in Rotterdam, referencing global overcapacity and Europe’s cost disadvantage.

These closures reduce Europe’s ability to buffer supply disruptions and weaken the economic case for maintaining integrated propylene oxide supply chains within the region.

THE HORMUZ SHOCK: THREE TRANSMISSION CHANNELS

The military escalation involving Iran that began at the end of February 2026 has disrupted the European polyol supply chain through three simultaneous channels. Individually, each would be manageable. Combined, they create significant uncertainty across the market.

Map, Global petrochemical trade routes and chokepoint status as of 5 March 2026. Red dashed = suspended (Hormuz closure); orange = active Cape of Good Hope detours; green = US alternative. Dow EMEAI price increases annotated.

Source: PUdaily analysis, EIA, carrier notices.

• Channel 1: Logistics disruption

Major shipping companies including Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd have suspended transits through the Strait of Hormuz. Vessels are being rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope, adding approximately 10–15 days to transit times and triggering emergency freight surcharges.

War-risk insurance has either become unavailable or prohibitively expensive. Reports indicate that several vessels have been struck near the strait and shipping intelligence suggests that a large number of vessels remain stranded in the surrounding area.

CMA CGM has introduced emergency conflict surcharges of up to $4,000 per container. For polyols transported in ISO tanks or bulk shipments, the per-tonne freight impact follows a similar logic.

Buyers who in recent years reduced inventories and relied on just-in-time imports from Asia or the Middle East now face supply chain vulnerability. Market participants report rising freight rates, although confirmed figures remain limited as the situation continues to evolve.

• Channel 2: Energy market disruption

The energy dimension of the crisis may have even deeper structural implications. QatarEnergy suspended LNG production following strikes affecting facilities at Ras Laffan and Mesaieed. Qatar supplies roughly 20% of global LNG, and the disruption immediately tightened global gas markets.

European gas storage levels were already relatively low for this time of year, around 30%. As supply concerns intensified, TTF futures rose sharply, increasing approximately 70% within days and peaking above €60/MWh. Some market estimates suggest that under a sustained one-month Hormuz disruption scenario, TTF prices could approach €70–€75/MWh.

For polyol producers whose margins were already thin before the crisis, such energy cost increases represent a severe economic challenge. Each increase in gas prices directly erodes margins in a market where selling prices remain constrained by international competition.

PRIMARY SOURCE — DOW EUROPE: PRICE INCREASE ANNOUNCEMENTS

3 December 2025 — Dow Europe GmbH announced an immediate increase of +€150/t for all polyether polyol grades in EMEAI (Europe, Middle East, Africa, India), effective immediately or within shortest time permitted by contract. Dow cited escalating raw material, energy, and transportation costs pressuring production economics.

27 February 2026 — Dow Europe announced a further +€100/t increase for all polyether polyol series in EMEAI, effective immediately. Dow cited current cost pressures and evolving supply-demand dynamics — the announcement landing one day before the outbreak of military conflict in Iran on 28 February, which further intensified expectations among polyurethane raw material suppliers.

Combined announced increase: +€250/t since December 2025. Source: PUdaily, Dow Europe GmbH announcements.

• Channel 3: Naphtha and propylene pressure

The naphtha disruption is affecting multiple regions simultaneously. Asian petrochemical producers are also facing feedstock supply risks as Middle Eastern export flows are disrupted.

Reports indicate that several Asian petrochemical companies are considering run rate reductions or temporary shutdowns. Indonesia’s Chandra Asri has declared force majeure on certain contracts, while Japanese producers have cancelled import tenders for April naphtha cargoes.

Asia typically imports around four million tonnes of Middle Eastern naphtha per month. South Korea alone sources roughly 54% of its naphtha supply through routes that pass the Strait of Hormuz.

If Asian steam crackers begin reducing operating rates due to feedstock constraints, this could temporarily reduce export pressure on European markets. However, the impact would depend on how long the disruption persists and how quickly alternative supply routes are secured.

THE MARGIN SQUEEZE: SCENARIO ANALYSIS

Even under rapid geopolitical de-escalation, many European producers remain only marginally profitable on commodity grades.

Under prolonged disruption, the gap between production costs and achievable selling prices may widen further, compressing margins to levels that historically have triggered additional plant closures or force majeure declarations.

The key dynamic is asymmetry. Cost shocks related to energy, logistics, and feedstocks transmit rapidly and with high certainty. Price recovery, however, is constrained by the competitive ceiling imposed by imports.

Even if Asian producers experience their own cost increases, they often have greater scale, integration, and alternative supply options that allow them to absorb temporary margin compression more easily.

IMPLICATIONS FOR MARKET PARTICIPANTS

• Buyers and downstream processors

For polyurethane processors, including foam, automotive, and insulation producers, security of supply is rapidly becoming a priority alongside price management. Buyers that have relied heavily on spot imports and minimal inventories face the greatest risk of supply disruption.

Market participants report increasing concern about availability, which may drive precautionary inventory building in the near term. Buyers with long-term supply contracts or domestic supplier relationships are comparatively better positioned.

• Traders and distributors

The arbitrage trade that has been profitable for the past 18 months, Asian polyol into Europe on improving freight and weak spot prices, is temporarily shut. Logistics are disrupted, insurance is expensive or unavailable, and transit times have extended. Traders who have cargo already en route face uncertainty about delivery timing and war-risk exposure. Those with European inventory have pricing power for the first time in months, though the window may be narrow. Watch for the resumption of Asia-to-Europe flows once routing clarity and insurance markets normalize, that is when the structural price ceiling re-asserts itself.

• European producers

The remaining integrated European producers, those with captive propylene oxide supply and flexible energy management, have a genuine competitive advantage in this environment. They have product. They have defined supply chains. They are not exposed to Hormuz rerouting risk on their feedstocks. The temptation will be to press that advantage on price, and the market would likely accept some increase given availability anxiety. The risk is overreaching: if the disruption resolves quickly and Asian volumes resume, any price gains will reverse sharply and relationship damage with key accounts will persist.

The deeper strategic question, beyond this crisis, is whether these closures and this disruption finally provoke a policy response that meaningfully addresses the energy cost differential. The European Commission’s Chemical Action Plan and Clean Industrial Deal rhetoric has been positive; the concrete impact on production economics has been minimal. That calculus may be changing.

OUTLOOK: KEY FACTORS TO MONITOR

Given the rapidly evolving geopolitical environment, specific price forecasts remain highly uncertain. Instead, several key indicators should be closely monitored:

• Hormuz shipping conditions – Any diplomatic progress reopening shipping lanes would quickly reduce freight and insurance costs.
• Qatar LNG production – A resumption of output from Ras Laffan would significantly ease pressure on European gas markets.
• Asian steam cracker run rates – Feedstock shortages in Asia could temporarily reduce export competition.
• European contract negotiations – Quarterly settlement discussions may reflect stronger cost-pressure arguments from producers.
• Potential force majeure declarations – Any disruptions to feedstock supply could have immediate market consequences.

THE BOTTOM LINE

Europe’s polyether polyol industry was already operating without a margin buffer when the Hormuz crisis began. The simultaneous shock to energy costs, feedstock logistics and import availability has removed the assumption of resilience that was still, however weakly, attached to remaining European production assets. The near-term price signal is upward, driven by anxiety, not demand recovery. The medium-term risk is that the disruption proves short-lived, Asian imports resume at low unit values, and the brief window of European producer advantage closes before any structural relief arrives. The permanent question, whether Europe retains a commodity polyol industry at all, has not been answered by this crisis. It has merely been made more urgent.

DATA NOTES & SOURCES

Polyol price data: PUdaily price assessments, Flexible Slabstock Polyols Bulk 3,000 MW, Spot, Western Europe, DEL, EUR/t. Price shown as mid-point of assessed range. | EU import data: Eurostat/UN Comtrade HS 390720 (“other polyethers, primary forms”) — used as directional proxy; not identical to polyether polyol trade classification. | Energy data: TTF front-month, EIA STEO, Cefic. | Naphtha: Reuters, 4 March 2026. | Shipping: Drewry WCI, carrier notices. | Capacity data: company announcements. | Market colour: anonymised primary sources, 5 March 2026. | All scenarios in Chart 3 are illustrative cost-build estimates and do not constitute price forecasts.

https://www.pudaily.com/Home/NewsDetails/62998

March 10, 2026

BASF introduces biomass balance polyether polyol product portfolio for the sleep products, automotive and CASE industries

WYANDOTTE, MI – MARCH 10, 2026 – BASF has announced the first commercial production of its biomass balance (BMB)^[1]polyether polyols in North America, manufactured at the company’s Verbund site in Geismar, Louisiana. The new product line broadens BASF’s portfolio of sustainable polyurethane raw materials and represents a significant milestone in advancing the company’s sustainability goals.

The BMB polyether polyols are certified under the internationally recognized ISCC PLUS certification^[2], ensuring full traceability and verification of sustainable biomass inputs across the value chain. Using the biomass balance approach, BASF replaces a share of fossil-based feedstocks at the beginning of the production process with renewable, bio‑circular materials, while maintaining identical product quality and performance compared with conventional polyether polyols.

Polyether polyols play a central role in polyurethane chemistry. They are a primary raw material that reacts with isocyanates to create polyurethane polymers. BASF’s biomass balance polyols provide a drop‑in solution that helps customers reduce the product carbon footprint (PCF) of flexible foam formulations used in countless industrial applications. Because BMB products retain the same specifications and processing characteristics as their fossil-based counterparts, manufacturers can adapt quickly without operational disruption.

“Expanding our BMB portfolio to include polyether polyols produced in Geismar further strengthens the trust our customers place in BASF to deliver reliable, sustainable solutions,” said Stefan Doerr, BASF Senior Vice President, Monomers North America. “Customers in the sleep products, automotive, and CASE industries can transition to these new solutions without any reformulation or process changes – making the shift both seamless and immediately actionable.”

BASF’s Monomers division continues to advance an ambitious sustainability roadmap, including the development of low‑PCF and circular product options across its major product lines. The launch of ISCC PLUS-certified BMB polyether polyols in North America complements the division’s existing BMB isocyanate offerings and reinforces BASF’s integrated approach to more sustainable polyurethane systems.

To learn more about BASF’s Biomass Balance portfolio and certification process, please visit us at https://chemicals.basf.com/north-america/en/Monomers/isocyanates-and-polyols/about-us/sustainability

[1] Biomass balance method (BMB): Fossil raw materials required for the manufacture of BASF products are replaced with renewable feedstock along the integrated production chain. The corresponding share of renewable material is attributed to the specific sales product via a certified mass balance approach. Production methods of this kind save fossil resources and reduce CO2 emissions at the same time. Renewable feedstock is not traceable in the BASF product.

[2] ISCC PLUS is a sustainability certification scheme for the use of sustainable biomass as raw material in the chemical industry. A certification according to this certification scheme confirms that the biomass used is sustainable and has been fed into the production system in the required amount. It also confirms that the sustainable biomass has been correctly attributed to the corresponding sales products. The certification is awarded on the basis of on-site audits conducted by independent auditors.

source: https://www.basf.com/us/en/media/news-releases/2026/03/P-US-26-11