Current Affairs
March 5, 2026
Residential Furniture Orders Flat in 2025
Furniture orders finish 2025 flat despite December drop
March 4, 2026 | 8:43 am CST
Photo by Spacejoy on Unsplash.
HIGH POINT, N.C. — New residential furniture orders dropped 11% in December compared to the previous month, but were up 1% compared to the 2024 figure, according to the February issue of Furniture Insights. “Year to date through December 2025, new orders pulled even with 2024 ignoring the impact of tariffs/inflation,” said Mark Laferriere, assurance partner at Smith Leonard, the accounting and consulting firm that produces the monthly report.
“Certainly not what people were hoping for coming into 2025, but perhaps a relative win in light of the challenges presented by the year’s disruptions.”
Approximately one-half of participants reported increases in December 2025 compared to a year ago, he said.
December shipments were flat compared to 2024 figures, with one-half of survey participants reporting increases compared to the year prior, Laferriere added. Shipments also flat compared to November. Shipments ended the year down 1% compared to December 2024 year-to-date figures.
“December 2025 backlogs were down 2% compared to December 2024, and down 1% from November 2025 as shipments outpaced new orders,” he added.
Receivable levels were down 11% from November and down 9% from December 2024. Inventories were flat with November and up 4% from December 2024.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, sales at furniture and home furnishings stores in December were down 0.9% compared to November, and down 5.6% from December 2024. Year to date on a non-adjusted basis, sales were up 2.3%, compared to 3.0% last month, according to February’s Furniture Insights.
Sales at furniture and home furnishings stores in December 2025 were down 0.9% compared to November 2025 on a seasonally-adjusted basis, and down 5.6% from December 2024. Year to date on a non-adjusted basis, sales were up 2.3% (3.0% last month).
Commenting on economy and industry, Laferriere said, “This month we saw the Supreme Court strike down the tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, though they were quickly replaced with temporary tariffs of 10% (or 15%) that are generally lower than those imposed under IEEPA or otherwise negotiated, particularly for Asian countries. Certainly a lot still be determined on how these tariffs are unwound, potentially refunded and to who, what will ultimately replace them, then not to mention the operational burden on those within the industry who will get to once again deal with potentially resetting their cost and pricing structures ahead of the April Market.
“While the situation in Iran presents real-life human consequences, history has shown the impact of such conflicts on the stock market or consumer confidence to be generally short-lived. The more immediate concern to the economy and the industry would seem to be the impact of oil prices on container costs and discretionary income that drive consumer spending,” he added.
“On a brighter note, there is some good news coming out of housing with the affordability index improving across all regions, which coupled with the continued decline in interest rates could drive the increased activity within the industry for 2026 we’ve been looking for.”
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https://www.woodworkingnetwork.com/furniture/furniture-orders-finish-2025-flat-despite-december-drop
March 4, 2026
US Chemical Companies “Net Beneficiaries”
US Chemical Companies “Net Beneficiaries” Of Middle East Energy Disruption Crisis
by Tyler Durden
Wednesday, Mar 04, 2026 – 05:45 AM
Bloomberg News headlines indicate that Iraq has begun shutting down oil output at Rumaila, the world’s largest “supergiant” oil field, while other Gulf states have idled some of the world’s largest refineries and major energy hubs following Iranian drone strikes. This signals that a massive energy disruption is set to hit global energy markets as the Strait of Hormuz remains paralyzed.
Goldman analysts led by Duffy Fischer have released a note assessing whether U.S. chemical manufacturers have exposure to Middle East energy disruptions. They find that “U.S. companies are likely to be net beneficiaries” of the Middle East conflict and the resulting energy disruptions.
Fischer pointed out that as oil prices rise, naphtha-based competitors in Europe and Asia are squeezed, while U.S. chemical makers that rely more on natural gas are relatively insulated due to domestic production. That, in turn, widens the U.S. margin advantage.
These U.S. chemical manufacturers use raw materials such as natural gas, crude oil liquids, salt, sulfur, and other minerals to produce products like:
- basic chemicals: ethylene, propylene, methanol, chlorine, ammonia
- plastics/resins: polyethylene, PVC, polyurethane inputs
- fertilizers: nitrogen, phosphate products
- industrial chemicals: solvents, coatings, acids, adhesives
- specialty chemicals: ingredients used in electronics, autos, construction, packaging, and consumer goods
Fischer explained:
The oil to gas ratio is a large driver of U.S. chemical production profitability. With oil prices increasing (see our Commodity team’s note and podcast), this will push up the price of naphtha, which is likely to increase the cost of European and Asian feedstocks. Since many naphtha crackers are currently near breakeven levels, that should force them to raise prices. This should lead the spot and export prices higher for U.S. product. The result would be an increase in U.S. margins as their natural gas feedstocks are not likely to be impacted. Lastly, while the industry believed that the March PE contract prices would roll flat, the events would significantly increase the possibility of U.S. producers achieving pricing in March.
Next, the analysts assess whether U.S. chemical manufacturers have exposure to the Middle East. They point out that Middle East disruptions would benefit U.S. chemical manufacturers.
Here’s how:
Significant amounts of competing chemical products are produced in the affected Middle East region. If this product is offline or is not able to ship then that would start to tighten global supply-demand and open up more volume opportunities for US producers. We look at three buckets of production (Iranian, UAE/Kuwait/Qatar, and Eastern Saudi Arabian). The impact on Iranian production is unclear and ships carrying production from Eastern Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar through the Straight of Hormuz appear to be disrupted. Exhibit 1 shows the greatest impact to the least for impacted chemical chains: Nitrogen, Sulfur, Methanol, MTBE, Phosphate, Polyethylene, MDI, TiO2, Chlorovinyls. While U.S. companies are likely to be net beneficiaries, there are some U.S. companies with assets in the region that may see negative impacts. Barring any U.S. assets being kinetically impacted, the net should be positive for all U.S. chemical companies.
Exposure:
Regional Exports by Chemical Chain as a % of Global Exports
Company Asset Exposure to the Middle East
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/us-chemical-companies-net-beneficiaries-middle-east-energy-disruption-crisis
March 4, 2026
Chinese Cost Updates
Shipping Crisis Escalates: Domestic Chemical Industry Chain Faces Comprehensive Price Hikes
2026-03-04 15:57:03Source: ChemNet中文
Recently, due to the rapid escalation of the Middle East situation and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes, global energy and chemical supply expectations have tightened sharply. The domestic chemical futures market has experienced widespread consecutive limit-up gains, with core varieties such as crude oil, fuel oil, and methanol recording cumulative increases of over 10% in two days. The rapid rise in costs has formed a complete price transmission chain. Leading companies such as Wanhua Chemical, Luxi Chemical, and Sinopec have intensively raised product prices, pushing the entire chemical industry into a phase of cost pressure and widespread price increases.
I. Futures Market Surges Across the Board, Multiple Varieties Rise Over 10% in Two Days
As a crucial passage for approximately 30% of global seaborne crude oil and over one-third of methanol trade, the obstruction of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz has directly impacted China’s highly import-dependent energy and chemical system. The domestic futures market reacted sharply, with varieties such as crude oil, fuel oil, methanol, LPG, plastics, polypropylene, ethylene glycol, propylene, and pure benzene collectively surging. Among them:
Crude oil and fuel oil main contracts hit limit-up for two consecutive days, with cumulative increases exceeding 10%;
Methanol main contracts rose continuously for two days, with cumulative gains breaking 10%, making it one of the core leading varieties in this round of market trends;
Downstream chemical products such as polypropylene, polyethylene, ethylene glycol, and propylene followed suit, showing a strong pattern across the entire sector.
Market participants indicated that this rally was driven by three factors: supply disruption expectations, soaring logistics costs, and cost-side resonance, with varieties highly dependent on Middle Eastern supplies showing particularly pronounced elasticity.
II. Full Industry Chain Price Transmission Forms Five Major Lines Under Comprehensive Pressure
As the “mother of chemicals,” the price increase effect of crude oil quickly transmitted downstream, forming a clear industrial chain price transmission chain covering five core lines: methanol, polyester, pure benzene-propylene, plastics, and MDI-phosphorus chemicals. Costs have risen across the entire industry:
Methanol Industry Chain: Methanol → Formaldehyde → Acetic Acid, soaring raw material costs directly push up downstream processing costs;
Polyester Industry Chain: PTA → Ethylene Glycol → Polyester Filament → Short Fiber, textile and chemical fiber raw materials face comprehensive pressure;
Pure Benzene-Propylene Chain: Pure Benzene → Propylene → High Styrene → Phenol Ketone → Propylene Oxide, both aromatic and olefin lines experience price increases;
Plastics Sector: Polyethylene (PE) → Polypropylene (PP) → ABS, raw material costs for packaging and injection molding industries climb;
MDI-Phosphorus Chemicals: Polymeric MDI → TDI → Phosphate Rock and Phosphates, polyurethane and phosphate fertilizer sectors follow suit with price increases.
III. Enterprises Intensively Adjust Prices, Leading Companies Take the Lead in Raising Prices to Counter Cost Pressure
Facing soaring raw material costs, domestic chemical industry leaders intensively issued price adjustment notices in early March, covering varieties such as styrene, trichloromethane, phenol, urea, propylene oxide, and pure benzene, with adjustments ranging from 30 yuan/ton to 500 yuan/ton:
Wanhua Chemical: Styrene raised by 250 yuan/ton (early March);
Luxi Chemical: Trichloromethane raised by 250 yuan/ton (March 4);
Sinopec North China: Phenol raised by 500 yuan/ton (March 3);
Lihuayi Weiyuan: Phenol and styrene raised by 270-300 yuan/ton (March 2);
Hualu Hengsheng: Urea raised by 30 yuan/ton (March 2);
Binzhou Chemical / Xinyue: Propylene oxide raised by 150-200 yuan/ton (March 2);
Dongming Petrochemical: Pure benzene and sulfur raised by 100-160 yuan/ton (March 2).
The industry pointed out that this round of price adjustments is primarily cost-driven. To alleviate the pressure of rising raw material costs and ensure stable production, companies were forced to raise ex-factory prices. Downstream processing, manufacturing, textile, and packaging industries will gradually bear the cost pressure.
IV. Market Outlook: Geopolitical Risks Persist, Chemical Prices Remain Strong
Currently, there are no signs of easing in the Middle East situation, and navigation through the Strait of Hormuz remains highly uncertain. Coupled with the recovery in demand for resumption of work and production in China in March, the supply and demand dynamics for chemicals remain tight.
In the short term, core varieties such as crude oil and methanol will continue to be dominated by geopolitical events, with prices prone to rise rather than fall. If the shipping lanes remain closed in the medium term, the gap in imported supplies will further widen, potentially prolonging the period of high domestic chemical prices. Profit distribution along the industrial chain will tilt toward the raw material end, and cost pressures on downstream enterprises will continue to intensify.
March 3, 2026
Middle East Urethane Update
MDI and TDI Prices Surge as Regional Crisis Reshapes Middle East PU Market
PUdaily | Updated: March 2, 2026
The Middle East polyurethane market has shifted from a period of steady growth into crisis management mode following recent regional developments that have triggered severe logistical disruptions and sharp price movements across all major materials.
MDI and TDI Prices Accelerate on Supply Fears
MDI and TDI prices rose approximately $100/mt during February, with momentum building gradually through the month. However, the final week of February marked a significant acceleration as regional events disrupted supply chains. Industry sources now expect prices to increase another $100-150/mt in coming weeks as logistical challenges persist and inventories tighten further.
Traders across the region confirm the tightening trend. A Lebanon-based trader shared: “MDI discussions, some sellers reported low stock levels for March loading availability. For TDI, higher freight costs and limited availability for March loading prompted some sellers to independently adopt cost push efforts.” Several other sellers report low stock levels for March loading availability, adding urgency to current discussions. “MDI allocations are becoming tighter than we expected,” one regional distributor noted. “March volumes are limited, and buyers who haven’t secured material early are facing extended wait times.”
Polyols Follow Feedstock Costs Upward
PPG prices have also moved higher, closely tracking propylene feedstock costs. Local production remains relatively stable, but logistics surcharges are now being added to every delivery. The price rise for polyols reflects raw energy cost pass-through following the 8% jump in Brent crude oil prices on March 1, rather than supply scarcity. Further modest increases of $100-150/mt are expected as crude holds firm.
Feedstock Volatility Hits Production Economics
Since PU production relies heavily on petrochemical derivatives, the sharp jump in Brent crude has significantly raised input costs for regional systems houses. Propylene, the precursor to PPG, spiked following the oil move, directly impacting polyol economics. For isocyanates, benzene and toluene feedstocks face similar pressure, creating cost-push inflation across the entire value chain.
Production Disruptions Compound Supply Issues
Some regional production facilities have been impacted by recent events, reducing local supply availability and disrupting the flow of intermediate chemicals to neighboring markets. This has removed a significant source of regional supply, forcing buyers to look elsewhere at a time when global availability is already constrained.
Demand Shifts Create Mixed Picture
While the construction sector, which accounts for approximately 38% of regional PU demand, is seeing immediate slowdowns in high-risk zones, there has been a sudden spike in demand for PU-based insulation and protective coatings for emergency infrastructure. This demand shift is creating pockets of tightness even as broader construction activity softens.
Drastic Logistics Changes Reshape Supply Chains
The most immediate and severe impact has been on the movement of goods. The Strait of Hormuz has been closed since late February due to regional developments. This waterway handles approximately 20% of global oil and a vast amount of the region’s chemical exports, making its closure a critical blow to regional trade.
Major carriers including Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, and MSC have suspended all transits through the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf. Jebel Ali Port in Dubai, the region’s primary logistics hub for PU chemicals, temporarily halted operations as a precautionary measure on March 1, creating backlogs and delays.
“Regional uncertainty remains elevated, and seller concerns about freight volatility and delivery disruptions will shape late-Q1 import sentiment amid selective buying trends,” one Dubai-based freight forwarder explained. A regional trader confirmed: “Yes, shipping cost is increasing due to the situation in the region.” Buyers are becoming more cautious but also more willing to pay premiums for confirmed available stock.
Shipping is now being diverted around the southern tip of Africa via the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10-14 days to transit times. Carriers have already introduced emergency surcharges of up to $2,000 per container, while freight forwarders have added war risk premiums and emergency bunker surcharges. Industry sources indicate these are adding roughly $150 per metric ton to transit costs for a standard MDI ISO tank.
Market Shifts to Crisis Mode
Contract pricing is being suspended by many distributors in favor of spot pricing, where quotes are valid for only 24 to 48 hours. Major suppliers in the region may begin allocating volumes, meaning buyers can only access a percentage of their historical average to prevent hoarding and ensure fair distribution of limited supplies.
“Right now, if you want confirmed material, you need to move fast,” one regional trader said. “Sellers are reluctant to commit to volumes too far out because nobody knows what freight looks like next week.”
Outlook: Further Increases and Structural Changes
With crude oil elevated and regional logistics disruptions continuing, MDI, TDI, and PPG prices are expected to rise another $100–150/mt in coming weeks. On the duration of disruptions, traders remain cautious. One market source noted: “Nobody can actually say how long this will last. It could be days, it could be weeks, it all depends on how the situation develops. Since the whole region is involved now, weeks seems more likely.”
As one regional trader summarized: “Regional uncertainty remains elevated. Seller concerns about freight volatility and delivery disruptions will shape late-Q1 import sentiment amid selective buying trends.”
Beyond immediate price moves, structural changes are emerging:
- Finished product prices for foams, coatings, and elastomers will rise sharply as manufacturers pass on increased costs of shipping and raw materials.
- Supply chain localization efforts will accelerate, with companies expected to move more production and storage capacity to less volatile areas like the Red Sea coast of Saudi Arabia or Oman.
- Regulatory changes may follow, with governments implementing stricter energy conservation mandates to offset rising fuel costs, ironically boosting long-term demand for PU insulation once the situation stabilizes.
For now, buyers should prepare for continued firm pricing, extended lead times, and a new reality where supply chain reliability can no longer be taken for granted. As one trader summed it up: “The market before February and the market now are completely different. Everyone is adjusting day by day.”
February 22, 2026
New Home Sales Update
2025 New Home Sales Highest Since 2021
by Tyler Durden
Friday, Feb 20, 2026 – 10:24 AM
US New Home Sales dipped 1.7% MoM in December (after a 15.5% MoM surge in November)…
…but ended the year at 745k – the highest SAAR since 2021…
“New” home sales have notably decoupled from “used” home sales in the last few years as homebuilders incentivize buyers (reducing margins) and lower prices (reducing revenues)…
Lower mortgage rates support modest further improvements in sales…
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/2025-new-home-sales-highest-2021
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